1Green EmpressD. McMonagle · J. O'BrienMcMonagle · O'Brien?10-1Fair 15-16%
——?Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Folsom Blues 7-2 · Trainer this race: Alwaysanangel 15-1, R3: Folsom Blues 7-2WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 12-horse race at LCH. Purse goes from $450,350 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LCH 1m T Qtr Mrcl Bu G1 Won/12 — — 9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 2nd/6 — 3.0-1 8/22 CGH 7f T Alph Cntur G2 Won/5 — 2.8-1 2Go For Launch▲LSP. Moran · K. AttardMoran · AttardA89 89 84►30-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady89 89 84A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87LSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 89 89 84
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
★ FASTEST WORKRuns for $1,000,000 after a $250,000 race last out. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (5F in :59.80), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 WO 5f T Algnquin G3 2nd/6 89 0.6-1 L Brk in;lead1/8;caught 8/26 SAR 5½f T BltnLndng Stk Won/8 89 10-1 Ins;ask2p1/4;rally;clr 7/25 WO 5f T MSW Won/7 84 1.1-1 Shook clear;held sway 3CurracloeB. Coen · J. MurtaghCoen · Murtagh?12-1Fair 30-14%
——?Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
WON LASTJohn P Murtagh takes over the training from Jp *murtagh. Winner of an 8-horse race at CGH last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 CGH 7f T Drly Flls S G3 Won/8 — 1.6-1 9/1 GOW 7f T MSW Won/16 — 22-1 4Serenas GhostL. Saez · J. SharpSaez · SharpC84 68@trip 6820-1Fair 20-14%
—84 68@trip 68CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 68
WON LASTWon last out in an 11-horse race at KEE. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 Won/11 by 1 84 23-1 Ins;rail bid 1/16;edge 9/11 IND 1m T MSW Won/9 68 13-1 Rail;bid1/8;clear;drvg 5De La Renta▲K. Kimura · K. AttardKimura · AttardA92 84 85▲▲+8@trip 9230-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best92 84 85@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 873Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 92 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 84 85
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 874 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKOwns the highest recent figure here at 92. Off 48 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Insd; angle7w; held 2nd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.20 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 WO 1m T Natalma G1 2nd/11 -2½L 92 6.5-1 Insd;angle7w;held 2nd 8/15 WO 6½f T SoarFree Stk Won/6 by 2 84 1.8-1 Determinendly;up wire 7/19 WO 6f D MSW Won/11 85 1.9-1 Held well;kept to task 6AlwaysanangelO. Murphy · J. O'BrienMurphy · O'Brien?15-1Fair 20-14%
——?Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R1: Moonrise 12-1, R3: Sale Shark 30-1 · Trainer this race: Green Empress 10-1, R3: Folsom Blues 7-2New trainer: Joseph P *o'brien had it last time, Joseph Patrick O'Brien now. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 3rd/6 — 7.5-1 8/14 CRK 7f T Irsh Stlln54k Won/9 — 2.5-1 7/10 NKT 6f T Duchss Of C G2 3rd/8 — 14-1 7VantaU. Rispoli · J. MullinsRispoli · MullinsB84 77 80▲+6@trip 8420-1Fair 10-110%
▲ Up +6 · career best84 77 80@trip 84B1Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 77 80
WON LASTRuns for $1,000,000 after a $100,000 race last out. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at SA.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 1m T SurfrGrl G3 Won/7 by 2 84 0.2-1 Ins-2w turns;best late 9/6 DMR 1m T JuvFlTrf Stk Won/9 by 2 77 1.0-1 Off slw;angl out;surge 7/31 DMR 5f T MSW Won/9 by 2 80 2.9-1 Lack rm turn;shftd out 8Citrus SpringsM. Franco · M. ClementFranco · ClementB83@trip 8315-1Fair 15-16%
—83@trip 83B2Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83
Also today · Jockey R1: Brickyard Belle 3-1, R3: Popcorn 20-1 · Trainer R1: Brickyard Belle 3-1, R3: Oscar 15-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTChanges barns, from Joseph Patrick O'Brien to Miguel Clement. Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Prssd 2w; 4-5w; held out), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 14 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 KD 1m T JuvFillis Stk Won/9 by hd 83 3.7-1 b Prssd 2w;4-5w;held out 8/12 GOW 7f T MSW Won/16 — 5.5-1 7/23 LEP 7f T MSW 2nd/12 — 3.0-1 9Sun GoddessR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?6-5Fair 7-223%
——?Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Great Barrier Reef 4-1 · Trainer R3: Florida Bay 20-1, R3: Haffner 8-1, R3: Man's Best Friend 15-1, R3: Great Barrier Reef 4-1WON LASTGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 Won/6 — 0.8-1 9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 Won/6 — 0.6-1 8/20 YOR 6f T Clm 0k Won/20 — 1.0-1 10AmusinglyC. Keane · F. GraffardKeane · Graffard?7-2Fair 7-112%
——?Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
WON LASTJockey switch: C T *keane last out, Colin T Keane today. Won last out in a 10-horse race at LCH.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 Won/10 — — 9/6 LCH 1m T Qatar d'uml G2 2nd/8 — — 6/20 CMP 6.95909f T MSW Won/10 — — 11Scommessa SicuraB. Loughnane · A. BaldingLoughnane · Balding?30-1Fair 30-13%
——?Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
New trainer: Andrew *balding had it last time, Andrew Balding now. Carries 122 pounds, 6 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 NKT 1m T Bt365 Flls G1 5th/8 — 28-1 9/10 DON 1m T Btfrd My Hl G2 2nd/11 — 4.0-1 8/12 SLB 1m T Brtsh Stlln73k 2nd/6 — 0.7-1 12Domestic Agenda▲F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownA90 838-1Fair 12-18%
—90 83A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 90 83
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87WON LASTDropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Purse goes from $250,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T MsGrillo G2 Won/6 90 1.0-1 3-4p;rally;up3/16;clr 9/4 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW Won/8 by 2½ 83 1.7-1 2w 1/4p; up last jumps 13Seneca ParkB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartB82 84 87▼-430-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -482 84 87BCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 82 84 87
An 87 top number against a 87 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 90).
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 2nd/11 82 2.9-1 Ins;collrd 2w1/16;bstd 8/30 KD 6½f T Untapable Stk Won/11 by nk 84 1.9-1 Bid 3w;late surge;up 8/7 ELP 5½f T MSW Won/11 87 3.0-1 Ins;drw off;handy late 14Ballinea StarT. Gaffalione · A. DeGaffalione · De?30-1Fair 50-12%
——?Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R1: Velozee 20-1, this race: Luminous Beauty 30-1, R3: Agate 10-1 · Trainer R1: Force Noir 8-1A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, a mile today. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 CGH 7f T Clm 0k 3rd/18 — 33-1 9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 4th/6 — 80-1 6/27 CGH 6.3f T Jbl Al Rccu G3 Won/5 — 16-1 15Silent BeautyD. Egan · D. PhilippartEgan · Philippart?30-1Fair 50-12%
——?Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #17 · Tier ?
WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 5-horse race at AYR at 0.7-1. Purse goes from $97,457 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 AYR 6f T Ldbrks Nw C G3 Won/5 — 0.7-1 8/31 RIP 6f T Brtsh Stlln73k Won/7 — 1.9-1 6/19 ASC 6f T Albany S. G3 23th/25 — 11-1 16Luminous BeautyT. Gaffalione · J. AntonucciGaffalione · AntonucciC81 84 79▲▲+14↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +1481 84 79 ↕CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–84 · Last 3 figs 81 84 79
★ FASTEST WORKFastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:46.60), a sign it is training forwardly. 2nd of 12 at 5F on Aug 16, in 1:00.40.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :46.60), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 6f T Futurity G3 3rd/7 -9L 81 3.0-1 Chased 2p; mild kick 8/30 KD 6½f T Untapable Stk 2nd/11 84 7.7-1 Pressed;game;bested 8/2 SAR 6½f D Adirondk G3 2nd/9 79 13-1 2p turn;3p1/4;no match 17Quibbler▼J. Torres · R. MottTorres · MottC80 72@trip 7230-1Fair 50-12%
—80 72@trip 72C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 72
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87Purse goes from $400,000 to $1,000,000, a step up. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 87 par.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 4th/11 -3L 80 13-1 2w;5p2nd;stayed mildly 8/30 KD 1m T MSW Won/12 by hd 72 23-1 3w;tippd out;kickd clr
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BCA · RACE 2
UPCOMINGB.C. Jv Fl Turf Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 Vanta (a closer, M/L 20-1). Recent figures: 84 · 77 · 80. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Citrus Springs at 15-1. Use #5 De La Renta in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 SUN GODDESS (6-5) — our number has it ranked #7.
- #9 SUN GODDESS — our #7 number, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 31.7%).
- #10 AMUSINGLY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.5%).
- #12 DOMESTIC AGENDA — our #6 number, a price play — we're at 7.8%, the board 7.7%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 VANTA (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.3%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (37%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #16 Luminous Beauty; pressure from #8 Citrus Springs, #2 Go For Launch; the shape helps #2 Go For Launch, #4 Serenas Ghost, #5 De La Renta; and works against #1 Green Empress, #3 Curracloe, #6 Alwaysanangel.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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