1DamavandL. Saez · T. PletcherSaez · PletcherC87 78@trip 8720-1Fair 30-13%
—87 78@trip 87CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 78
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 2.7-1. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes gr1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW Won/11 by hd 87 2.7-1 Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel 9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/12 -8L 78 3.4-1 4w pursuit; improved 2Gaudreau▲M. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA98 908-1Fair 10-110%
—98 90A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 903Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 98 90
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Has run 98 against a 90 par for the class.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 2nd/6 -½L 98 2.8-1 Dueled 3-2w; ran on 8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/8 90 2.4-1 Out;3-2p;lead3/16;held 3Salahudin▲T. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertB96 92 78▲▲+116-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best96 92 78B▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 92 78
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 904 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTFigures are climbing: 78, 92, 96 over its last three. Winner of a 7-horse race at CD last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 Won/7 96 1.0-1 b Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel 8/9 ELP 7f D JuvenileB250k Won/7 92 1.3-1 b Vied 3-2wd;drove clear 7/17 ELP 6½f D MSW Won/9 78 0.6-1 b 4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr 4Earth Song▲LSJ. Alvarado · J. DelgadoAlvarado · DelgadoC94 8320-1Fair 20-15%
—94 83C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 94 83
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLERuns for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Best recent figure of 94 sits right around the 90 par.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)TROUBLED TRIP Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 4th/6 -4L 94 24-1 Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte 9/7 MTH 6f D MSW Won/3 83 0.9-1 Step slow; drew off 5Hughes▲F. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA108 100 100▲▲+12@trip 1081-1Fair 3-240%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best108 100 100@trip 108A▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 901Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 108 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 108 100 100
▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 90WON LASTOwns the highest recent figure here at 108. Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at SA.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1 1/16 D AmPharoh G1 Won/6 108 0.3-1 b Ins;bid3-2wd;handily 9/6 DMR 7f D DMrFut G1 Won/5 100 0.2-1 b Outsd;3deep5/16;cleard 8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 Won/5 100 1.5-1 b Vied ins;powered away 6American History▲J. Velazquez · T. PletcherVelazquez · PletcherB93 83@trip 939-2Fair 8-111%
—93 83@trip 93B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWon last out in a 6-horse race at KEE. The Oct 14 work, 4F in :47.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 14 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 Won/6 by 3½ 93 5.0-1 Off slow;4p;left ld;up 8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/9 83 9.6-1 5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr 7Coach Pope▲J. Ortiz · K. McPeekOrtiz · McPeekA92 99 89►@trip 924-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady92 99 89@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 902Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 99 89
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90Purse goes from $650,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 4 (:58.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.00 on Sep 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 2nd/6 92 0.7-1 2w;long duel;brsh;cght 9/12 CD 1m D MSW Won/12 99 0.4-1 Took over;cruised away 8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 89 13-1 Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain 8He Is No Lie▲▲J. Rosario · D. O'NeillRosario · O'NeillB95 78 92▲▲+1015-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 78 92B▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 78 92
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early pace3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSOff 48 days since the last start. 3rd of 8 at 3F on Oct 21, in :35.80.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 9d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 2nd/7 -½L 95 4.7-1 2w;btw;duel;grudgingly 8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 4th/5 -4½L 78 2.3-1 Stumbled badly; 4wide 6/28 CD 6f D BshfdMnr Stk 2nd/8 92 4.6-1 Dueld ins;cleard;naild
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BCC · RACE 1
UPCOMINGB.C. Juvnle Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Hughes (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 108 · 100 · 100. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Coach Pope at 4-1. Use #2 Gaudreau in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 HUGHES (1-1) — our number agrees.
- #5 HUGHES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (36.9% to their 38.7%).
- #7 COACH POPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.0% to their 15.5%).
- #6 AMERICAN HISTORY — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 He Is No Lie; pressure from #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song; and works against #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song, #8 He Is No Lie.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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