1T O PasswordK. Kimura · D. TakayanagiKimura · TakayanagiC90@trip 9030-1Fair 50-12%
—90@trip 90CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 90 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90
60D LAYOFFRuns for $7,000,000 after a $456,274 race last out. New trainer: D. *takayanagi had it last time, Daisuke Takayanagi now.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 3d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 SAP 1 1/16 D Elm S. G3 3rd/11 — 3.3-1 5/30 TOK 1m D Akhalteke262k Won/16 — 1.0-1 4/26 TOK 1m D Oasis S.286k 2nd/15 — 1.9-1 2Sovereignty▲J. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottA110 104 105▲+3≡@trip 1125-2Fair 4-121%
▲ Up +3110 104 105 ≡@trip 112A▲ Last fig 110 at/above par 942Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 104–112 · Best fig at today's trip 112 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 110 104 105
▲ Last fig 110 at/above par 9460D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWon last out in a 7-horse race at SAR. Figure of 112 on the record sits above the 94 par.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 5-6w upper; drew clear.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 4 works in 30d and the last 5 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 SAR 1⅛m D Whitney G1 Won/7 110 2.3-1 5-6w upper; drew clear 6/27 CD 1⅛m D SFoster G1 3rd/5 -3½L 104 0.9-1 4p;closer 2nd;flattend 4/18 OP 1⅛m D OaklawnH G2 2nd/6 105 0.9-1 2-3p; dug in; 2nd best 3Golden Tempo▲J. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxB104 98 98▲+5≡@trip 1045-1Fair 7-112%
▲ Up +5 · career best104 98 98 ≡@trip 104B▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 94Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 98–104 · Best fig at today's trip 104 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 104 98 98
▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 9460D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Purse goes from $1,250,000 to $7,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 25 (5F in :59.80), 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 SAR 1¼m D Travers G1 3rd/10 -2½L 104 2.3-1 b Cut corner; closed in 6/6 SAR 1¼m D Belmont G1 Won/9 98 6.0-1 b Brush gate st; up 1/8p 5/2 CD 1¼m D KyDerby G1 Won/18 by 6 98 23-1 b Pinch;7-10w1/8;rlly;up 4The Puma▲J. Castellano · G. DelgadoCastellano · DelgadoB105 103 100▲+4≡@trip 10310-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +4 · career best105 103 100 ≡@trip 103B▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 94Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 100–105 · Best fig at today's trip 103 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 103 100
▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 943 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 10-horse race at PRX at 2.7-1. Has run 105 against a 94 par for the class.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Quick 6w move; held on), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 24; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 1⅛m D PaDerby G1 Won/10 105 2.7-1 b Quick 6w move; held on 8/29 SAR 1¼m D Travers G1 4th/10 -3L 103 11-1 6w1/4; lug in; kept on 7/18 MTH 1⅛m D Haskell G1 4th/7 -5L 100 3.3-1 Bobbled break; inside 5Forever Young▲★R. Sakai · Y. YahagiSakai · YahagiA112 115 111►@trip 1152-1Fair 5-227%
► Steady112 115 111@trip 115A▲ Last fig 112 at/above par 94★ Best at the trip 1151Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 115 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 112 115 111
▲ Last fig 112 at/above par 94★ Best at the trip 115WON LASTRuns for $7,000,000 after a $1,000,000 race last out. An 115 in its last five clears the 94 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP 6w uppr; clear; drifted last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 12d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 BEL 1¼m D JkyClbGC G1 Won/4 112 0.5-1 6w uppr;clear; drifted 3/28 MEY 1¼m D Dub Wrld Cu G1 2nd/9 — — 2/14 KAR 1⅛m D Saudicupg1 G1 Won/13 — — 6MagnitudeF. Prat · S. AsmussenPrat · AsmussenC92 110 100▼▼-12@trip 906-1Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1292 110 100@trip 90C3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 110 100
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKFlavien Prat takes over from Jose L Ortiz in the saddle. Stretches out from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled st; tired last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 SAR 1⅛m D Whitney G1 6th/7 -5½L 92 1.9-1 Stumbled st; tired 6/27 CD 1⅛m D SFoster G1 Won/5 110 2.6-1 Brk thru gt;in hand 2p 3/28 MEY 1¼m D Dub Wrld Cu G1 Won/9 — — 7Knightsbridge▲▲L. Saez · W. MottSaez · MottA111 119 101▲+5↕@trip 1119-2Fair 7-112%
▲ Up +5111 119 101 ↕@trip 111A▲ Last fig 111 at/above par 94▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 97–119 · Best fig at today's trip 111 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 111 119 101
▲ Last fig 111 at/above par 94▲ Lone speed on early pace60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 119, with 115 next best. Winner of an 11-horse race at DMR last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 15; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 DMR 1¼m D PacifcCl G1 Won/11 111 1.1-1 b Duel2w;shook free uppr 7/18 MTH 1⅛m D MTHCup G3 Won/5 119 0.5-1 b Drew off; in hand late 6/6 SAR 1m D MtropltH G1 2nd/7 -2½L 101 5.3-1 b 4w in aim;vied; ran on 8Napoleon Solo▲LSJ. Velazquez · C. SummersVelazquez · SummersB106 104 95▲▲+10@trip 10615-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best106 104 95@trip 106B▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 94LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 106 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 106 104 95
▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 94LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKHas moved up each time out, 95 to 104 to 106. Off 62 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: In hand 3-2w; nailed.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (5F in 1:00.40), 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 SAR 1¼m D Travers G1 2nd/10 106 8.0-1 b In hand 3-2w; nailed 7/18 MTH 1⅛m D Haskell G1 2nd/7 by hd 104 3.6-1 b Off inside; gamely 2p 5/16 LRL 1 3/16 D Preaknes G1 Won/14 95 7.9-1 b Outs in hand;drift in
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BCC · RACE 2
UPCOMINGB.C. Clasic Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Forever Young (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 112. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Sovereignty at 5-2. Use #6 Magnitude in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 FOREVER YOUNG (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #5 FOREVER YOUNG — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.4% to their 25.7%).
- #2 SOVEREIGNTY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.0%).
- #7 KNIGHTSBRIDGE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Knightsbridge; pressure from #6 Magnitude, #8 Napoleon Solo; the shape helps #4 The Puma, #5 Forever Young, #6 Magnitude; and works against #1 T O Password, #7 Knightsbridge.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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