1ImmersiveJ. Alvarado · B. CoxAlvarado · CoxC87 92 96▼▼-9@trip 9630-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -987 92 96@trip 96CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 92 96
Runs for $2,000,000 after a $650,000 race last out. Figure of 99 on the record sits above the 92 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 1⅛m D Spinster G1 3rd/3 -5L 87 5.0-1 Ins;headed 5/16;faded 9/12 CD 1 1/16 D LcstGrv G2 3rd/4 -5L 92 3.6-1 Prss winner 3p;gave wy 6/27 CD 1⅛m D FlrDLis G2 Won/4 by hd 96 1.7-1 Dueled ins foe; lasted 2Nitrogen▲★J. Ortiz · M. CasseOrtiz · CasseA105 104 110►@trip 1106-5Fair 2-132%
► Steady105 104 110@trip 110A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 1101Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 110 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 104 110
▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 110Also today · Jockey R1: Lexi's Charm 15-1 · Trainer R1: Lexi's Charm 15-1, R1: Voyager 12-1, this race: Measure 20-1WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 5-horse race at BEL at 0.1-1. Tops the field on speed figures, an 110 against 106 for the next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 BEL 1⅛m D Beldame G2 Won/5 105 0.1-1 b 3-2w; drifted to 1/16p 8/8 SAR 1⅛m D Whitney G1 2nd/7 by hd 104 5.8-1 b Stumbled st; drifted 6/5 SAR 1⅛m D OPhipps G1 Won/6 110 1.0-1 b 2p; drifted; forged cl 3Regaled▲J. Ramos · D. BeckmanRamos · BeckmanB103 96 92▲▲+10@trip 10320-1Fair 15-17%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best103 96 92@trip 103B▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 92Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 103 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 96 92
▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 92WON LASTHas moved up each time out, 92 to 96 to 103. Winner of an 8-horse race at DEL last time.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 DEL 1⅛m D DelH G3 Won/8 103 3.7-1 b Widest;full of run 6/27 CD 1⅛m D FlrDLis G2 2nd/4 -5L 96 4.8-1 b Ins;4-5p upr;rally;mss 6/5 SAR 1⅛m D OPhipps G1 4th/6 -13L 92 23-1 b 7w upper; weakened 4Fully Subscribed▲F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownA97 102 106▼-4@trip 1068-5Fair 3-124%
▼ Down -497 102 106@trip 106A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 922Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 106 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 102 106
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 92★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST5 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Purse goes from $650,000 to $2,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (5F in 1:00.40), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 1⅛m D Spinster G1 Won/3 97 0.5-1 Stalk 3p;shft;rddn out 8/29 SAR 1⅛m D PrsnlEns G1 Won/6 102 0.9-1 Float 5w uppr; went cl 7/24 SAR 1⅛m D Shuvee G2 Won/6 by 3 106 1.7-1 Ins-2p;swung out1/4;7p 5Scottish LassieL. Saez · J. AbreuSaez · AbreuB91 105 106▼▼-11@trip 10515-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -1191 105 106@trip 105BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 105 106
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJockey switch: Jose L Ortiz last out, Luis Saez today. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.60 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 SAR 1⅛m D PrsnlEns G1 2nd/6 -1½L 91 1.6-1 Led 4w uppr; kept on 7/24 SAR 1⅛m D Shuvee G2 2nd/6 105 1.4-1 2-3p;out;clr3/16-1/16 6/7 SAR 7f D OC 80k b Won/5 106 0.8-1 L Ins-2p;3w uppr;driving 6Measure▲LSM. Franco · M. CasseFranco · CasseC94 95 96►≡@trip 9720-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady94 95 96 ≡@trip 97C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 92LSCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 94–97 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 95 96
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 92LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R1: Scarlett Begonia 20-1 · Trainer R1: Lexi's Charm 15-1, R1: Voyager 12-1, this race: Nitrogen 6-5★ FASTEST WORKA 97 in its last five clears the 92 par for this level. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $1,000,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 1 1/16 D Cotilln G1 3rd/9 -5½L 94 6.8-1 In tight 3/8; late bid 8/22 SAR 1¼m D Alabama G1 2nd/6 -1½L 95 11-1 Last away;ins-2p;rally 7/25 SAR 1⅛m D CCAOaks G1 3rd/7 -4L 96 26-1 4w upper; kept on 7Super Corredora▲J. Rosario · J. SadlerRosario · SadlerB98 41 82▲▲+25↕15-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best98 41 82 ↕B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–98 · Last 3 figs 98 41 82
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 923 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWon last out in a 7-horse race at SA. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 8d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 SA 1 1/16 D Zenyatta G2 Won/7 98 7.8-1 Antsy;pace;ins;clr upr 3/8 SA 1 1/16 D SntYsabl G3 6th/7 -10L 41 1.7-1 Threw head st;climbed 2/8 SA 1m D LsVrgnes Stk 4th/4 -3L 82 1.7-1 Duel2w;vied btwn;wknd 8Splendora▲T. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertA102 98 102▲+7@trip 939-2Fair 7-112%
▲ Up +7102 98 102@trip 93A▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 923Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 98 102
▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 923 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTOff 49 days since the last start. The Sep 6 work, 4F in :46.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand ins; ridden out.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 6; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 1 1/16 D LcstGrv G2 Won/4 102 0.2-1 b In hand ins;ridden out 7/18 MTH 1 1/16 D MPtchr G2 Won/7 98 0.3-1 b Pace ins; ridden out 5/30 CD 1 1/16 D Shawnee G2 Won/7 102 1.4-1 b Led past 3/8;clr;held 9Eunomia▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.C96 81 99▲+530-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +596 81 99C▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 92Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 96 81 99
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 9260D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST91 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at DMR.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 22 (4F in :47.00), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/1 DMR 1 1/16 D CLHrsch G1 Won/9 96 12-1 3deep;duel2w;led;held 5/9 BAQ 1m D Ruffian G2 6th/7 -7½L 81 2.1-1 Stumbled brk;2w1/4;wkn 4/17 KEE 1 1/16 D Dbldgdre G2 2nd/8 99 1.9-1 Prss 2w5/8;dueld;bestd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BCD · RACE 2
UPCOMINGB.C. Distaf Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 107.75
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #2 Nitrogen (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 105 · 104 · 110. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Fully Subscribed at 8-5. Use #8 Splendora in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 NITROGEN (6-5) — our number agrees.
- #2 NITROGEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.3% to their 34.8%).
- #4 FULLY SUBSCRIBED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.9% to their 29.5%).
- #8 SPLENDORA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 MEASURE (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.6%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (33%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Nitrogen; pressure from #7 Super Corredora, #1 Immersive; the shape helps #3 Regaled, #6 Measure; and works against #1 Immersive, #2 Nitrogen, #7 Super Corredora.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
$3 LATE PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12)
BET OPTIONS
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