R1 BCD · B.C. Juvenile Fil (G1)

3:35 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $2,000,000 · 12 runners3:35 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $2000K · B.C. Juvenile Fil (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Scarlett Begonia▲M. Franco · B. CoxFranco · CoxC91 78 83▲▲+1020-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best91 78 83C▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 78 83

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Measure 20-1 · Trainer this race: Foxiest 15-1, R2: Immersive 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Purse goes from $300,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Pocahnts G3	2nd/7	91	3.2-1	2wbtw-ins;duel;outkckd
8/2	SAR	6½f D	Adirondk G3	3rd/9 -2½L	78	2.2-1	Bmp brk;2p turn;3p1/4
7/6	ELP	5½f D	MSW	Won/11 by 2½	83	0.7-1	Ins;5p upr;good energy

2Domain Expansion▲A. Escobedo · L. PowellEscobedo · PowellA99 65@trip 996-1Fair 10-19%—99 65@trip 99A▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 893
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 99 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 65
▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 89
Jockey Adrian Escobedo 36% career · Trainer Leonard Powell 30% career
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse race at SA at 14-1. A 99 in its last five clears the 89 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
SHARP LAST OUT Ins; angld1/4; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 1 1/16 D OakLeaf G2 Won/6 99 14-1 Ins;angld1/4;drew off
9/5 DMR 1m T MSW 2nd/10 -3L 65 20-1 Off slow;alter/bpd5/16
3Foxiest▼J. Alvarado · B. CoxAlvarado · CoxC84 8115-1Fair 20-15%—84 81C▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 84 81
▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 89
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Immersive 30-1 · Trainer this race: Scarlett Begonia 20-1, R2: Immersive 30-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at CD last time. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes gr1 now.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 8d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 7½f D MSW Won/9 84 0.6-1 Powered thru; handily
8/29 SAR 6f D MSW 3rd/9 -2½L 81 1.4-1 Stmbld brk;2-4p;6p1/4
4Rum Twist▲J. Velazquez · M. HennigVelazquez · HennigB94 89 68▲▲+15↕15-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best94 89 68 ↕B▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–94 · Last 3 figs 94 89 68
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer Mark Hennig 25% career
Figures are climbing: 68, 89, 94 over its last three. Has run 94 against a 89 par for the class.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 9d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Frizette G1 2nd/7 -1L 94 5.6-1 2-5p trn;6p1/4;drft in
9/5 SAR 7f D MSW Won/10 89 7.8-1 3-4w uppr; drew clear
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 4th/8 -7½L 68 9.0-1 Balk in tight rail 5/8
5Miss Monica▲F. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA98 1025-2Fair 4-120%—98 102A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 892
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 98 102
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Fully Subscribed 8-5 · Trainer R2: Splendora 9-2
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 7 furlongs last time. Owns the highest recent figure here at 102.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: 3w; clear; in hand late.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 DMR 7f D DMrDeb G1 Won/9 98 0.4-1 b 3w;clear;in hand late
8/9 DMR 6½f D MSW Won/5 102 0.5-1 b Drew off; ridden out
6Revenge of the Sis▲E. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverC92 7920-1Fair 20-15%—92 79C▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 89
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 92 79
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 89
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ hot
Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Frizette G1 3rd/7 -3½L 92 7.1-1 b 2-3path turn;mvd out
8/29 MTH 1m D SororityB106k 3rd/9 -5½L 79 7.4-1 b Off slowly; steadied
7Lexi's Charm▲J. Ortiz · M. CasseOrtiz · CasseB99 81 59▲▲+2915-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best99 81 59B▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 89
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best · Last 3 figs 99 81 59
▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 89
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Nitrogen 6-5 · Trainer this race: Voyager 12-1, R2: Nitrogen 6-5, R2: Measure 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Has moved up each time out, 59 to 81 to 99.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
SHARP LAST OUT Clear 2p; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 37d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 KEE 6f D Alw s Won/7 99 2.2-1 Clear 2p; drew off
8/26 SAR 5½f T BltnLndng Stk 4th/8 -4¼L 81 10-1 Slw st;ins trn;mvd out
7/17 SAR 5½f D MSW Won/10 59 4.0-1 6-5w uppr; edged away

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1 1/16 D	OakLeaf G2	Won/6	99	14-1		Ins;angld1/4;drew off
9/5	DMR	1m T	MSW	2nd/10 -3L	65	20-1		Off slow;alter/bpd5/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	7½f D	MSW	Won/9	84	0.6-1		Powered thru; handily
8/29	SAR	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -2½L	81	1.4-1		Stmbld brk;2-4p;6p1/4

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Frizette G1	2nd/7 -1L	94	5.6-1	2-5p trn;6p1/4;drft in
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	Won/10	89	7.8-1	3-4w uppr; drew clear
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	4th/8 -7½L	68	9.0-1	Balk in tight rail 5/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	DMR	7f D	DMrDeb G1	Won/9	98	0.4-1	b	3w;clear;in hand late
8/9	DMR	6½f D	MSW	Won/5	102	0.5-1	b	Drew off; ridden out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Frizette G1	3rd/7 -3½L	92	7.1-1	b	2-3path turn;mvd out
8/29	MTH	1m D	SororityB106k	3rd/9 -5½L	79	7.4-1	b	Off slowly; steadied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/7	KEE	6f D	Alw s	Won/7	99	2.2-1	Clear 2p; drew off
8/26	SAR	5½f T	BltnLndng Stk	4th/8 -4¼L	81	10-1	Slw st;ins trn;mvd out
7/17	SAR	5½f D	MSW	Won/10	59	4.0-1	6-5w uppr; edged away

8Manuka Honey▲L. Saez · B. LynchSaez · LynchB93 91 87▲+410-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +4 · career best93 91 87B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Last 3 figs 93 91 87

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Scottish Lassie 15-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at CD. A 49-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Pocahnts G3	Won/7 by 1½	93	1.0-1	Roused 4p;drv past1/16
8/9	ELP	7f D	DebutanteB250k	Won/8	91	0.5-1	Stalk 4-3p;ridden out
6/20	CD	5f D	MSW	Won/12	87	1.7-1	4p;bid 4w1/4;drew off

9BadittudeJ. Rosario · T. PletcherRosario · PletcherC86 80 70▲▲+1130-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best86 80 70C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 86 80 70
Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer this race: Life Changing 30-1
Has moved up each time out, 70 to 80 to 86. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes gr1 today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 BEL 1m D MSW 2nd/6 86 3.4-1 b Brk out;brsh;2w;gamely
8/29 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/9 -2L 80 16-1 b Ins-2p turn;mvd out1/8
7/25 SAR 6f D MSW 5th/9 -4L 70 10-1 b 4p trn;drift in ins1/8
10Emphatic▲T. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · WalshA97 87 79▲▲+14@trip 979-5Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best97 87 79@trip 97A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 891
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 87 79
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 89
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Splendora 9-2
WON LAST
Figure of 97 on the record sits above the 89 par. Led at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 8d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 1 1/16 D Alcibiad G1 Won/7 97 3.4-1 Ins foe;held well;drvg
8/29 MTH 1m D SororityB106k Won/9 87 1.5-1 3w bid; handily
7/25 CNL 6f D MSW Won/6 79 0.9-1 Stalk;bid4w;3w1/4;drvg
11Voyager▲LSJ. Castellano · M. CasseCastellano · CasseC93 82 80▲▲+1412-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best93 82 80C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 93 82 80
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey J J Castellano 30% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Lexi's Charm 15-1, R2: Nitrogen 6-5, R2: Measure 20-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Switches from turf to dirt. The Oct 21 work, 4F in :47.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
TROUBLED TRIP 5w5/16; led3/16; held last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T Natalma G1 Won/11 93 3.8-1 5w5/16;led3/16;held
8/1 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW Won/6 82 1.0-1 In hand 2p; held game
7/3 SAR 6f D Schylrvl Stk 2nd/6 -2½L 80 3.0-1 Bid 4-3w uppr; kept on
12Life ChangingJ. Hernandez · T. PletcherHernandez · PletcherC81 -3 93▲▲+3630-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +3681 -3 93C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +36 · Last 3 figs 81 -3 93
Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career ★ hot
Also today · Trainer this race: Badittude 30-1
Juan J Hernandez takes over from Samuel Marin in the saddle. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $150,000 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 DEL 1m D WhtClyCrkB150k 2nd/7 81 1.5-1 Stubborn;outfinished
9/5 SAR 7f D Spinaway G1 7th/7 -27L -3 2.1-1 Bobble st; eased
8/1 SAR 6f D MSW Won/10 93 2.2-1 In hand 2p; went clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1m D	MSW	2nd/6	86	3.4-1	b	Brk out;brsh;2w;gamely
8/29	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/9 -2L	80	16-1	b	Ins-2p turn;mvd out1/8
7/25	SAR	6f D	MSW	5th/9 -4L	70	10-1	b	4p trn;drift in ins1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	KEE	1 1/16 D	Alcibiad G1	Won/7	97	3.4-1	Ins foe;held well;drvg
8/29	MTH	1m D	SororityB106k	Won/9	87	1.5-1	3w bid; handily
7/25	CNL	6f D	MSW	Won/6	79	0.9-1	Stalk;bid4w;3w1/4;drvg

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Natalma G1	Won/11	93	3.8-1	5w5/16;led3/16;held
8/1	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/6	82	1.0-1	In hand 2p; held game
7/3	SAR	6f D	Schylrvl Stk	2nd/6 -2½L	80	3.0-1	Bid 4-3w uppr; kept on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	DEL	1m D	WhtClyCrkB150k	2nd/7	81	1.5-1	Stubborn;outfinished
9/5	SAR	7f D	Spinaway G1	7th/7 -27L	-3	2.1-1	Bobble st; eased
8/1	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/10	93	2.2-1	In hand 2p; went clear

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BCD · RACE 1

UPCOMING

B.C. Juvenile Fil (G1)

Field

12 runners

Purse

$2,000,000

Post

3:35 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#10 · 23%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.79

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Emphatic (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 97 · 87 · 79. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Miss Monica at 5-2. Use #2 Domain Expansion in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #10 EMPHATIC (9-5) — our number agrees.
#10 EMPHATIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 27.5%).
#5 MISS MONICA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.0%).
#2 DOMAIN EXPANSION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.1% to their 11.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #12 Life Changing; pressure from #9 Badittude, #5 Miss Monica; the shape helps #1 Scarlett Begonia, #2 Domain Expansion, #3 Foxiest; and works against #9 Badittude, #12 Life Changing.

Lead

12Life Changing829Badittude80

Press

5Miss Monica977Lexi's Charm9611Voyager941Scarlett Begonia932Domain Expansion934Rum Twist9010Emphatic77

Stalk

8Manuka Honey853Foxiest81

6Revenge Of The Sis88

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Miss Monica

Lexi's Charm

Voyager

Scarlett Begonia

Domain Expansion

Rum Twist

Manuka Honey

Life Changing

Foxiest

Badittude

Emphatic

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Revenge Of The Sis

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