R3 BCE · B.C. Mile (G1)

4:20 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $2,000,000 · 15 runners4:20 PM · 1m Turf · 15 runners

Upcoming $2000K · B.C. Mile (G1)

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Zulu Kingdom (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 105 from 9 tries. Not in our top three.

1Deterministic▲▼K. Carmouche · M. ClementCarmouche · ClementA100 94 99▲+5≡@trip 1048-1Fair 10-18%▲ Up +5100 94 99 ≡@trip 104A▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 93–100 · Best fig at today's trip 104 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 94 99

▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: John The Beer Man 30-1 · Trainer R4: Far Bridge 20-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $2,000,000 after a $1,000,000 race last out. Tops the field on speed figures, a 104 against 103 for the next best.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 13; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	WoMile G1	2nd/6	100	1.1-1	No match; second best
8/8	SAR	1m T	4strdav G1	Won/6	94	1.6-1	Tracked 2p; edged clr
6/6	SAR	1 3/16 T	Manhttn G1	Won/9 by hd	99	4.9-1	Out;3-2p;dueled;game

2Lake Forest▲C. Fallon · W. HaggasFallon · HaggasB93@trip 936-1Fair 7-112%—93@trip 93B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 902
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Jockey Cieren Fallon · Trainer William J Haggas
Purse goes from $1,250,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. 2nd last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 8.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1m T TurfMile G1 2nd/8 -3¾L 93 3.1-1 Ins;btw1/8;tght;up plc
8/22 YOR 7f T Sky Bt Cty G1 2nd/14 — 6.0-1
7/29 GWD 1m T Vst Qtr Sus G1 7th/12 — 8.5-1
3Facteur Cheval▲M. Franco · M. CasseFranco · CasseC97 85@trip 8530-1Fair 20-15%—97 85@trip 85C▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 903
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 85
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 90
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Roja 30-1, R2: Thought Process 15-1, R4: Test Score 30-1 · Trainer R1: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R2: Classic Q 20-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 9-horse allowance race at KEE at 3.6-1. A 97 in its last five clears the 90 par for this level.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 KEE 1 1/16 T Alw b Won/9 97 3.6-1 L Ins;3w btw1/4;bid;held
9/7 KD 1m T MntMlnIv G3 6th/10 -5¼L 85 8.1-1 Trailed;moved up late
6/21 MLL 1¼m T Gran Di Mln G3 2nd/5 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	TurfMile G1	2nd/8 -3¾L	93	3.1-1	Ins;btw1/8;tght;up plc
8/22	YOR	7f T	Sky Bt Cty G1	2nd/14	—	6.0-1
7/29	GWD	1m T	Vst Qtr Sus G1	7th/12	—	8.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	1 1/16 T	Alw b	Won/9	97	3.6-1	L	Ins;3w btw1/4;bid;held
9/7	KD	1m T	MntMlnIv G3	6th/10 -5¼L	85	8.1-1		Trailed;moved up late
6/21	MLL	1¼m T	Gran Di Mln G3	2nd/5	—	—

4Cabo Spirit▲M. Smith · G. PapaprodromouSmith · PapaprodromouC92 90 94►≡@trip 9330-1Fair 30-13%► Steady92 90 94 ≡@trip 93C▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–94 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 90 94

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90

Jockey M E Smith 31% career · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career

WON LAST

Winner of a 5-horse race at SA last time. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $200,000 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 12 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	1m T	CtyOHpMi G2	Won/5	92	7.2-1	b	Deft rated;drftot;held
8/22	DMR	1m T	DmrMile G2	4th/11	90	7.0-1	b	Driftd into str;gamely
7/26	DMR	1⅛m T	EdRead G2	2nd/8	94	8.2-1	b	Drifted out str;nailed

5Ask IkigomiR. Sakai · H. FujiwaraSakai · Fujiwara?20-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryusei Sakai 14% career · Trainer Hideaki Fujiwara 14% career
60D LAYOFF
Returns from a 173-day break, the biggest in the field. New trainer: H *fujiwara had it last time, Hideaki Fujiwara now.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/10 TOK 1m T NHK Mile Cu G1 2nd/18 — 7.4-1
4/4 HSN 1m T Churchll Dw G3 Won/14 — 13-1
2/1 TOK 1m T MSW Won/16 — 4.8-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
5/10	TOK	1m T	NHK Mile Cu G1	2nd/18	—	7.4-1
4/4	HSN	1m T	Churchll Dw G3	Won/14	—	13-1
2/1	TOK	1m T	MSW	Won/16	—	4.8-1

6Zulu Kingdom▲★F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownB92 91 96►≡@trip 10515-1Fair 20-15%► Steady92 91 96 ≡@trip 105B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90★ Best at the trip 105

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 91 96

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90★ Best at the trip 105

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Yellow Card 8-1, R2: Stellify 12-1, R4: Survie 15-1 · Trainer R2: Kathynmarissa 5-1

4 wins from 9 starts at this distance. Figure of 96 on the record sits above the 90 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	TurfMile G1	5th/8 -1½L	92	2.8-1	Stalk 2p;repelld;faded
8/8	SAR	1m T	4strdav G1	3rd/6 -1L	91	2.9-1	Nudge foe 1/16;kept on
7/5	SAR	1m T	Kelso G3	2nd/10 -½L	96	2.1-1	Ins;tip out3/16;bid1/8

7QiratC. Keane · R. BeckettKeane · BeckettC88@trip 8830-1Fair 50-12%—88@trip 88C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88
Jockey Colin T Keane 14% career · Trainer Ralph Beckett 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Blue Bolt 5-2 · Trainer R1: Starlust 20-1
WON LAST
Changes barns, from Ralph *beckett to Ralph Beckett. Won last out in a 10-horse race at LCH.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LCH 1m T Qtr Dnl Wld G2 Won/10 — —
9/12 DON 7f T Btfrd Prk S G2 3rd/8 — 11-1
8/29 GWD 1m T Vrgn Bt Clb G2 2nd/7 — 6.5-1
8Notable Speech▲W. Buick · C. ApplebyBuick · ApplebyA102 94 96▲+6@trip 1027-5Fair 5-227%▲ Up +6 · career best102 94 96@trip 102A▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 901
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 102 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 94 96
▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 90
Jockey William T Buick 23% career · Trainer Charles Appleby 27% career
Also today · Jockey R4: El Cordobes 15-1 · Trainer R4: El Cordobes 15-1
WON LAST
Has won 6 of 14 going today's distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Angled 5w; led 1/16), and the figure already reflects it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T WoMile G1 Won/6 by 2 102 0.7-1 Angled 5w; led 1/16
8/22 YOR 7f T Sky Bt Cty G1 Won/14 — 2.2-1
6/16 ASC 1m T Queen Ann S G1 6th/9 — 2.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/3	LCH	1m T	Qtr Dnl Wld G2	Won/10	—	—
9/12	DON	7f T	Btfrd Prk S G2	3rd/8	—	11-1
8/29	GWD	1m T	Vrgn Bt Clb G2	2nd/7	—	6.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	WoMile G1	Won/6 by 2	102	0.7-1	Angled 5w; led 1/16
8/22	YOR	7f T	Sky Bt Cty G1	Won/14	—	2.2-1
6/16	ASC	1m T	Queen Ann S G1	6th/9	—	2.2-1

9Rhetorical▲J. Ortiz · W. WaldenOrtiz · WaldenA96 91 98►@trip 1018-1Fair 12-18%► Steady96 91 98@trip 101A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 101 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 91 98

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer William Walden 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Possiblemente 12-1, R1: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R2: Kathynmarissa 5-1, R4: Minaret Station 15-1 · Trainer R4: Minaret Station 15-1

WON LAST

A 103 in its last five clears the 90 par for this level. Purse goes from $1,250,000 to $2,000,000, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 5d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	TurfMile G1	Won/8	96	1.9-1	Soft pace;spurtd clear
8/8	SAR	1m T	4strdav G1	4th/6 -3L	91	4.5-1	5w upper; out-finished
6/6	SAR	1 3/16 T	Manhttn G1	4th/9	98	2.9-1	2p-inside;dueled lane

10LugalO. Murphy · H. SugiyamaMurphy · Sugiyama?30-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Haruki Sugiyama
Also today · Jockey R1: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R2: Bless The Broken 20-1, R4: Bay City Roller 5-1
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Haruki Sugiyama takes over the training from H. *sugiyama.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 NAK 5.96364f T Sprinters S G1 14th/16 — 8.6-1
6/20 ASC 6f T Qun Elzbth G1 8th/18 — 40-1
3/28 MEY 5.96364f T Al Quz Sprn G1 2nd/11 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/27	NAK	5.96364f T	Sprinters S G1	14th/16	—	8.6-1
6/20	ASC	6f T	Qun Elzbth G1	8th/18	—	40-1
3/28	MEY	5.96364f T	Al Quz Sprn G1	2nd/11	—	—

11Formidable ManJ. Velazquez · M. McCarthyVelazquez · McCarthyB84 94 95▼▼-10@trip 9515-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1084 94 95@trip 95B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 94 95

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer Michael W McCarthy

Also today · Jockey R1: Cy Fair 8-1, R2: Gimme A Nother 10-1, R4: Far Bridge 20-1 · Trainer R1: Yellow Card 8-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 95, 94, 84 over its last three. Worked 5F in 1:00.00 on Oct 9, 2nd of 39 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/7	KD	1m T	MntMlnIv G3	7th/10 -5L	84	2.7-1	Wide trip;evenly
7/26	DMR	1⅛m T	EdRead G2	3rd/8 -2½L	94	0.7-1	Stdy early;2w;3w;game
5/25	SA	1m T	ShoemkrM G1	Won/8 by hd	95	0.7-1	Ins;2wd;bid3/16;clear

12True Love▲W. Lordan · A. O'BrienLordan · O'BrienC908-1Fair 15-16%—90C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Jockey W Lordan 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Trainer R2: Precise 7-2, this race: Puerto Rico 10-1, R4: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1, R4: Diamond Necklace 3-1
WON LAST
Changes barns, from A P *o'brien to Aidan P O'Brien. Stretches out from 7 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qatar Foret G1 Won/8 — —
9/12 LEP 1m T Clmr Amrc J G1 6th/9 — 7.5-1
8/9 DVL 6.46364f T ARC Murc Gh G1 5th/11 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qatar Foret G1	Won/8	—	—
9/12	LEP	1m T	Clmr Amrc J G1	6th/9	—	7.5-1
8/9	DVL	6.46364f T	ARC Murc Gh G1	5th/11	—	—

13Brilliant Berti▲LSB. Hernandez Jr. · C. DevauxHernandez Jr. · DevauxC93 89 98►≡@trip 10030-1Fair 20-14%► Steady93 89 98 ≡@trip 100C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–98 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 89 98

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90LS

Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Cherie Devaux

Also today · Jockey R4: Burnham Square 8-1

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 20, in :47.60. 2nd of 10 at 4F on Aug 30, in :48.60.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 20 (4F in :47.60), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	TurfMile G1	4th/8 -3½L	93	7.7-1	b	Trk 3p;left ld;bmp1/16
9/7	KD	1m T	MntMlnIv G3	3rd/10 -2½L	89	4.7-1	b	Late traffic;bid btwn
8/2	ELP	1 1/16 T	GrnRvrIsl Stk	Won/12	98	2.6-1	b	2w;btw;4w1/4;bid;clear

14Puerto RicoR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?10-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan L Moore 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Precise 7-2, R4: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 · Trainer R2: Precise 7-2, this race: True Love 8-1, R4: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1, R4: Diamond Necklace 3-1
Ryan L Moore takes over from W *buick in the saddle. Goes a mile after running 7 furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qatar Foret G1 3rd/8 — —
8/22 YOR 7f T Sky Bt Cty G1 6th/14 — 28-1
7/29 GWD 1m T Vst Qtr Sus G1 11th/12 — 40-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qatar Foret G1	3rd/8	—	—
8/22	YOR	7f T	Sky Bt Cty G1	6th/14	—	28-1
7/29	GWD	1m T	Vst Qtr Sus G1	11th/12	—	40-1

15Vina Arana▲▼A. Beschizza · J. SistersonBeschizza · SistersonC97 96 95▲+5@trip 9730-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +5 · career best97 96 95@trip 97C▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 96 95

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 90▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Adam Beschizza 33% career · Trainer Jack Sisterson 29% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Vina Arana 30-1 · Trainer R2: Vina Arana 30-1

Was 10th of 10 at the first call last time. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	4th/10 -4L	97	55-1		2-3p;8-10p1/8;willngly
8/29	KD	6½f T	LdsTfSpt G1	5th/10 -4½L	96	28-1		3w;bmp str;need punch
7/19	WO	1m T	Nassau G2	Won/6	95	2.1-1	L	To lead4W3/16;coast in

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BCE · RACE 3

UPCOMING

B.C. Mile (G1)

Field

15 runners

Purse

$2,000,000

Post

4:20 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#8 · 27%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 92.87

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Notable Speech (a closer, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 102. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Lake Forest at 6-1. Use #3 Facteur Cheval in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 NOTABLE SPEECH (7-5) — our number agrees.
#8 NOTABLE SPEECH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.8% to their 30.9%).
#2 LAKE FOREST — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.1% to their 10.6%).
#1 DETERMINISTIC — our #4 number, a price play — we're at 8.3%, the board 8.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 FACTEUR CHEVAL (30-1) — our fair 3.1% is above the morning line's 2.4%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (33%) at 30-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Rhetorical; pressure from #4 Cabo Spirit, #1 Deterministic; the shape helps #1 Deterministic, #3 Facteur Cheval, #6 Zulu Kingdom; and works against #4 Cabo Spirit, #5 Ask Ikigomi, #7 Qirat.

Lead

9Rhetorical844Cabo Spirit83

Press

1Deterministic896Zulu Kingdom81

Stalk

11Formidable Man863Facteur Cheval8513Brilliant Berti78

15Vina Arana858Notable Speech812Lake Forest76

No style yet

5Ask Ikigomi7Qirat10Lugal12True Love14Puerto Rico

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Deterministic

Formidable Man

Facteur Cheval

Rhetorical

Cabo Spirit

Zulu Kingdom

Brilliant Berti

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Notable Speech

Lake Forest

Vina Arana

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