★ Distance horse: #6 Elenique (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 83 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1More Applause▲M. Vasquez · J. CataneseVasquez · CataneseB81 63 81▲▲+9@trip 8110-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best81 63 81@trip 81B▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 63 81
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79CLASS DROPPrime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 4th last time in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 4th/7 81 13-1 L Set press pace; weaken 8/2 GP 1 1/16 T OC 50k 6th/6 -½L 63 6.6-1 L Led to 3/16;faded lane 7/4 GP 1m T OC 50k 4th/7 81 28-1 L Pace; weakened 1/8 2Tape RunnerJ. Ocasio · V. Barboza Jr.Ocasio · Barboza Jr.B73 78 80▼▼-88-1Fair 10-18%
▼▼ Big drop -873 78 80BCard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 73 78 80
Also today · Jockey R1: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, R3: Come On Teesha 5-1 · Trainer R1: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, this race: New Life 3-1, R3: Super Sienna 12-1CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTMoves up from $17,500 claiming to optional claiming. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.TROUBLED TRIP Circled 5wd; in time last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 17k b Won/7 by 2 73 1.6-1 L Circled 5wd; in time 7/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 5th/9 -9½L 78 7.2-1 L Ins uppr;shift 4p;even 6/13 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 25k b 4th/7 -3½L 80 5.6-1 L Step slow;coming late 3Tell Me Some LiesD. Herrera · J. OrsenoHerrera · OrsenoA68 79 85▼▼-14@trip 812-1Fair 3-124%
▼▼ Big drop -1468 79 85@trip 81A2Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 79 85
★ FASTEST WORKComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. An 85 in its last five clears the 79 par for this level.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 90d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 6th/8 -6½L 68 2.8-1 b L No response; evenly 8/30 CNL 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 3rd/7 -2L 79 3.5-1 b L 3-4w 2nd; missed 2nd 8/7 CNL 1 1/16 T Clm 25k Won/8 85 4.0-1 b L Stalk;3w bid;kickd clr 4Nashville SlewLSE. Gonzalez · R. LaurinGonzalez · LaurinC71 77 78▼-7≡@trip 7820-1Fair 15-16%
▼ Down -771 77 78 ≡@trip 78CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 71–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 77 78
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Figures have slipped: 78, 77, 71 over its last three. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 5th/8 -5½L 71 16-1 b L Track;bid; flattened 9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 6th/7 -2L 77 15-1 b L Pressed pace; gv way 4/19 TAM 1m T Clm 25k n3x 2nd/6 by nk 78 11-1 b L Trk ins; bid btw; game 5Lady River Lily▲W. Henry · A. RodriguezHenry · RodriguezB66 76 76▼-7@trip 769-2Fair 8-111%
▼ Down -766 76 76@trip 76B▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 76
▲ Lone speed on early pace★ FASTEST WORKChanges barns, from Douglas J Seyler to Angel M Rodriguez. Class relief: allowance last time, optional claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (5F in 1:02.00), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 SAR 1m T Alw n1x 6th/6 -5½L 66 48-1 L Unsettled ins; tired 8/8 SAR 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 7th/8 -4¾L 76 44-1 L Coaxed ins; weakened 7/3 SAR 1 1/16 T OC 45k 7th/8 -5L 76 40-1 L 4w upper; weakened 6Elenique★J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeA75 80 83▼-7≡@trip 838-1Fair 10-110%
▼ Down -775 80 83 ≡@trip 83A★ Best at the trip 83Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 83
★ Best at the trip 83★ FASTEST WORKTrending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 80 to 75. Last out was 7th, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 33 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 7th/7 -5L 75 5.9-1 b L Trailed; no factor; 8/29 GP 1 1/16 D BearsDenB100k 4th/6 -5¾L 80 5.9-1 b Stalk 4w;loom;no kick 8/9 GP 1m T fsMdSpWt Won/8 by 2 83 0.5-1 b L Asked 3w;reponded;up 7New LifeL. Reyes · V. Barboza Jr.Reyes · Barboza Jr.A78 84 89▼-3@trip 733-1Fair 4-120%
▼ Down -378 84 89@trip 73A1Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 84 89
Also today · Jockey R1: Casablanca Queen 8-1, R3: Bayou Brigid 10-1 · Trainer R1: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, this race: Tape Runner 8-1, R3: Super Sienna 12-1Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 85 for the next best. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 2nd/8 -5L 78 1.2-1 b L Closed well;no match 9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 2nd/7 -3L 84 1.7-1 b L Boxed in;belatedly 8/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k Won/7 by ½ 89 1.9-1 b L Jostled st;4w;clear 8Starship ElationJ. Morelos · K. MongeonMorelos · MongeonC73 78 79▼-3≡@trip 7920-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -373 78 79 ≡@trip 79CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 78 79
0 for 6 at today's distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 3rd/8 -8½L 73 26-1 L Belated interest 9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 5th/7 -5L 78 8.2-1 L Passed weaker 8/8 GP 1m T OC 35k 3rd/8 -8L 79 27-1 L 3-4w;no match top 2 9Del Mar SunriseM. Meneses · N. TomlinsonMeneses · TomlinsonC67 72 70▼-6@trip 728-1Fair 8-110%
▼ Down -667 72 70@trip 72C3Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 72 70
Was running in optional claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. 6th last time, 9 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 50k 6th/6 -9L 67 7.5-1 L No threat; 8/22 GP 1m T MssGracieB100k 6th/7 -6½L 72 29-1 Steadied 7/8; 4wd bid 8/2 GP 1 1/16 T OC 50k 3rd/6 -1¾L 70 7.6-1 L Stdy 1/4;angl out;bid
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 2
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $35,000
Claiming $35,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 New Life (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 78 · 84 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Tell Me Some Lies at 2-1. Use #9 Del Mar Sunrise in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 TELL ME SOME LIES (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 TELL ME SOME LIES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 25.9%).
- #7 NEW LIFE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.5%).
- #5 LADY RIVER LILY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 14.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 NASHVILLE SLEW (20-1) — our fair 4.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Lady River Lily; pressure from #1 More Applause, #4 Nashville Slew; the shape helps #1 More Applause, #3 Tell Me Some Lies, #4 Nashville Slew; and works against #5 Lady River Lily.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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