1Bayou BrigidLSL. Reyes · H. SmullenReyes · SmullenB75 82 80▼-7≡@trip 8410-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -775 82 80 ≡@trip 84BLSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 82 80
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
60D LAYOFFPurse drops from $100,000 to $75,000 against its last start. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 GP 1m T MssGracieB100k 4th/7 -5L 75 4.0-1 b In tight 7/8; gaining 7/13 GP 1m T OC 25k n1x Won/6 by 1 82 2.2-1 b L Off ins 1/4; rallied 6/6 GP 1 1/16 D MrthWshtnB100k 3rd/7 -4L 80 4.3-1 b 3w; came back 3rd 2Pure Eloquence▼M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.B66 83 75▼▼-105-2Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -1066 83 75B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 83)Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 66 83 75
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (66 vs 83)Also today · Jockey R1: Boots 15-1 · Trainer R1: Life's Mystery 9-2, this race: Little Georgie 20-1, this race: Day To Day 2-1Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 87 for the next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through early), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 23 (4F in :49.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 GP 5f D OC 62k n2x 6th/6 -8½L 66 3.0-1 L Through early 3/12 GP 1m T OC 75k n1x Won/8 83 6.6-1 L Ins;clear;held sway 2/21 TP 6f D OC 62k n1x 4th/9 -2½L 75 30-1 L Saved grnd;dueled show 3Striking Finale▲D. Herrera · N. RamseyHerrera · RamseyA87 73 85▲▲+9@trip 768-1Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best87 73 85@trip 76A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 841Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 73 85
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 8460D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 9-horse allowance race at GP at 1.1-1. Off 75 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/16 GP 1m T fsAlw65000n1x Won/9 by ½ 87 1.1-1 b L Chs btw; inside rally 8/2 GP 1 1/16 T OC 50k Won/6 by hd 73 0.5-1 b L Ins;tip 2w;going away 7/4 GP 1m T OC 50k 2nd/7 -2½L 85 5.1-1 b L Settld;4-w uppr;game 4Bert's Knoty GirlJ. Morelos · J. EnglerMorelos · EnglerC74 76 83►@trip 7915-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady74 76 83@trip 79CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 76 83
Figures have slipped: 83, 76, 74 over its last three. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and stakes nongraded now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 39d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 50k 3rd/6 -6L 74 2.6-1 Well placed; no kick 8/22 GP 1m T MssGracieB100k 3rd/7 -3L 76 26-1 Chased; dug in late 7/4 GP 1m T OC 50k 3rd/7 -4½L 83 8.3-1 L Ins 1/4;rallied;4-w 5Little GeorgieR. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.C69 72 84▼▼-9@trip 7920-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -969 72 84@trip 79CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 72 84
Also today · Jockey R1: Life's Mystery 9-2 · Trainer R1: Life's Mystery 9-2, this race: Pure Eloquence 5-2, this race: Day To Day 2-1★ FASTEST WORKStretches out from 6½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 30 (4F in :46.80), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/9 KD 6½f T MSW 6th/11 -3¾L 69 7.3-1 L 4w;vied back;need more 7/22 CNL 1m D MSW 4th/6 -3L 72 2.9-1 L Vied2w;ins turn;wknd 5/9 GP 7½f T MSW 2nd/10 84 4.6-1 L 3-4p;bid1/4;chase on 6Super Sienna▼M. Gutierrez · V. Barboza Jr.Gutierrez · Barboza Jr.C7612-1Fair 20-15%
—76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Also today · Jockey R1: Smoke 6-1 · Trainer R1: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, R2: Tape Runner 8-1, R2: New Life 3-1Switches from dirt to turf. A 76 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Sep 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -6L 76 5.2-1 L Failed to menace 5/24 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Rpublc G3 7th/9 — — 4/26 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Pmpln G1 2nd/14 -1½L — — 7Come on Teesha▲J. Ocasio · M. MorrisonOcasio · MorrisonA87 745-1Fair 7-113%
—87 74A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 843Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 87 74
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWon last out in a 9-horse optional claiming race at GP. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 5 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 15 (3F in :35.40), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x Won/9 by 2½ 87 11-1 L Sat trip; kicked clear 8/24 GP 5f T MCL 35kc Won/8 by 4 74 7.4-1 L Strong run; going away 8Day to Day▲★E. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.A87 83 83▲+3≡@trip 862-1Fair 3-125%
▲ Up +3 · career best87 83 83 ≡@trip 86A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 862Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 83–87 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 83 83
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 86Also today · Jockey R2: Nashville Slew 20-1 · Trainer R1: Life's Mystery 9-2, this race: Pure Eloquence 5-2, this race: Little Georgie 20-1★ FASTEST WORKThe Aug 30 work, 3F in :35.00, was the best time at that distance that morning. A longer trip: -6½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 39d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA -6½f T JCHarris G3 2nd/9 -1½L 87 7.0-1 b Bid 4w;kept at bay 9/5 CNL 1 1/16 T frHandicap 2nd/8 83 2.8-1 b L Got thru rail;no match 8/15 CNL 1 1/16 T fsAllBrandyB125k 3rd/8 -1L 83 2.0-1 b Stalked4w;bid4w;flatnd 9CryingintherainJ. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB8010-1Fair 15-16%
—80BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 80
Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call. 2nd of 7 at 4F on Oct 19, in :48.40.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 11d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 6th/9 -6½L 80 11-1 b L Late gain;no impact 4/8 KEM 6f D Evry Sturdy16k 4th/8 — 11-1 12/31 LNG 6f D Alw Won/6 — 16-1 10Rogue Runner▲M. Vasquez · G. JacksonVasquez · JacksonC84 82 85►≡@trip 7730-1Fair 30-14%
► Steady84 82 85 ≡@trip 77C▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 82 85
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84CLASS UPWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 50k Won/6 84 0.9-1 b L Well rated; edged away 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 3rd/7 -1½L 82 5.1-1 b L 3wd move; no match 8/16 GP 1m T fsAlw65000n1x 2nd/9 -½L 85 4.2-1 b L Fwd; 4wd bid; kept on
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 3
UPCOMINGCellr Shrz Stakes
Stakes, for fillies, 3-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Striking Finale (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 87 · 73 · 85. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Day To Day at 2-1. Use #7 Come On Teesha in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 DAY TO DAY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #8 DAY TO DAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.3% to their 25.7%).
- #2 PURE ELOQUENCE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 22.0%).
- #7 COME ON TEESHA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 STRIKING FINALE (8-1) — our fair 10.6% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: 6-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Pure Eloquence; pressure from #10 Rogue Runner, #8 Day To Day; the shape helps #1 Bayou Brigid, #4 Bert's Knoty Girl, #5 Little Georgie; and works against #2 Pure Eloquence, #6 Super Sienna, #9 Cryingintherain.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 3 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
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