1Chica Feliz▼J. Morelos · F. AlanisMorelos · AlanisC66 52 50▲▲+13@trip 5250-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best66 52 50@trip 52C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 52 50
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 8160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden claiming $17,500 race at GP. Moves up from maiden claiming $17,500 to stakes nongraded.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.TROUBLED TRIP 6wd rally; in time last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.20 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 GP 5½f D MCL 17k Won/7 by 1½ 66 13-1 6wd rally; in time 7/31 CNL 1m T MSW 8th/9 -8¾L 52 114-1 2 wide; no threat 7/16 CNL 6f D MCL 30k 6th/8 -7L 50 26-1 Btwn turn;angld out1/8 2HammyLSM. Meneses · J. SweezeyMeneses · SweezeyB80@trip 8020-1Fair 15-16%
—80@trip 80BLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
WON LASTRaises its level, maiden claiming $25,000 last time and stakes nongraded now. Won last out in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.60 on Aug 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k Won/9 80 6.7-1 Kicked by;clear late 3Kissed By a Rose▼M. Vasquez · R. SpatzVasquez · SpatzC72 73 75►≡20-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady72 73 75 ≡C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–75 · Last 3 figs 72 73 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81WON LASTSwitches from dirt to turf. Winner of an 8-horse race at GP last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 13d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 Won/8 72 3.4-1 b Bid turn; stretch duel 9/5 GP 7½f T Moc50000 2nd/7 -1L 73 3.4-1 b Turned away;ran-on 8/9 GP 7½f T fsMdSpWt 4th/7 -1¾L 75 2.9-1 Traffic;needed more 4Liberty RingsN. Juarez · N. PalmerJuarez · PalmerB71 80 58▼-3↕8-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -371 80 58 ↕BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–84 · Last 3 figs 71 80 58
Goes a mile after running 5 furlongs last time. An 84 top number against a 81 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 7th/8 -1½L 71 2.5-1 Tracked;weakened 8/8 GP 6f D fsScndlsActB100k Won/6 by 1½ 80 8.6-1 3-4w rally;drove clear 6/28 CD 6f D Debutante Stk 7th/8 -9½L 58 18-1 Brk out;4-5p btw;faded 5Sucker For Looks▼D. Herrera · L. RobsonHerrera · RobsonA755-2Fair 4-120%
—75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 812Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 813 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWas running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 11d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/9 KD 6½f T MSW 2nd/11 -3½L 75 16-1 3w;tipd in;vied 6Karolina PharoahJ. Ocasio · V. Barboza Jr.Ocasio · Barboza Jr.B77@trip 7710-1Fair 12-17%
—77@trip 77BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77
Also today · Jockey R2: Tape Runner 8-1, R3: Come On Teesha 5-1 · Trainer R2: Tape Runner 8-1, R2: New Life 3-1, R3: Super Sienna 12-1WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at GP at 3.3-1. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96).
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 1m T MSW Won/5 77 3.3-1 b Late reserves;kicked 7Philipina a▼Y. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloC65 72 52▲+330-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +365 72 52C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 65 72 52
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81WON LASTLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Best recent figure is 72, well under the 81 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 4wd rally; drew away.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k Won/5 by hd 65 0.9-1 4wd rally; drew away 9/19 GP 5f D MCL 35k 2nd/7 -3L 72 5.0-1 Green;good effort 7/19 GP 5f D MCL 25k 4th/5 -12L 52 9.6-1 Lag; late interest 8BootsM. Husbands · N. TomlinsonHusbands · TomlinsonC70 68 68▼-5↕15-1Fair 30-14%
▼ Down -570 68 68 ↕CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–88 · Last 3 figs 70 68 68
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSOwns the highest recent figure here at 88. A 55-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 GP 7f D fsThreeRingB150k 4th/4 -9½L 70 9.0-1 b Duel;no match;fade 8/8 GP 6f D fsScndlsActB100k 4th/6 -5L 68 6.7-1 Crowded st;ins;no bid 7/3 GP 5½f D ShrpSusanB100k 4th/6 -6L 68 1.3-1 Hard riddn 2p 3/8;wknd 9Touch of HonorJ. Rios · C. DavidRios · DavidA78 79 77▲+45-1Fair 6-113%
▲ Up +478 79 77A3Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 78 79 77
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTOff 55 days since the last start. Led at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 20 (3F in :36.00), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 GP 7½f T Moc50000 Won/7 78 0.5-1 b Kick away convincingly 8/9 GP 7½f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/7 79 1.4-1 b Fanned 5-4p;led;gamely 7/11 GP 5f D MSW 2nd/7 -2L 77 1.9-1 b Ins;4-w upr;closing in 10Life's Mystery▼R. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.C68 679-2Fair 8-110%
—68 67C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 68 67
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 81Also today · Jockey R3: Little Georgie 20-1 · Trainer R3: Pure Eloquence 5-2, R3: Little Georgie 20-1, R3: Day To Day 2-160D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSStretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 KD 6½f T MSW 4th/11 by hd 68 7.0-1 Brk out;vied ins;wknd 7/11 GP 5f D MSW 4th/7 -7L 67 2.1-1 4-w turn;needed more 11SmokeM. Gutierrez · C. DavidGutierrez · DavidA70 76 76▼-6≡@trip 766-1Fair 6-114%
▼ Down -670 76 76 ≡@trip 76A1Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 70–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 76 76
Changes barns, from Brendan P Walsh to Carlos A David. Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 KEE 1 1/16 T Alw n2l 4th/5 -4½L 70 3.5-1 3-2p1st; no menace 9/7 KD 1m T JuvFillis Stk 6th/9 -2¾L 76 9.0-1 Track ins;wknd str 7/4 ELP 1m T MSW Won/8 76 2.2-1 Ins;bid 3w3/16;cleared 12Casablanca Queen▼L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloC41 74 59▼▼-26@trip 418-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -2641 74 59@trip 41C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -26 · Best fig at today's trip 41 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 41 74 59
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time. 2nd of 27 at 4F on Oct 23, in :48.40.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 KD 1m T JuvFillis Stk 9th/9 -8¾L 41 30-1 b Midpck 4w;faded upr 8/16 GP 7½f T MSW Won/7 74 2.0-1 b Responded; pulled away 7/18 GP 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -11L 59 6.5-1 b 2nd flight;ask;bst rst
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOur Dear Pg Stakes
Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #11 Smoke (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 70 · 76 · 76. Backup is #5 Sucker For Looks at 5-2. Use #9 Touch Of Honor in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 SUCKER FOR LOOKS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #5 SUCKER FOR LOOKS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.0%).
- #9 TOUCH OF HONOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 12.8%).
- #10 LIFE'S MYSTERY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 14.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 HAMMY (20-1) — our fair 4.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 7-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Boots; pressure from #6 Karolina Pharoah, #10 Life's Mystery; the shape helps #1 Chica Feliz, #5 Sucker For Looks; and works against #6 Karolina Pharoah, #8 Boots, #10 Life's Mystery.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 1 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
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