R1 EQB · Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

3:14 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $45,000 · 13 runners3:14 PM · 1m Turf · 13 runners

Upcoming $45K · Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Souper Handsome▼S. Leon · M. CasseLeon · CasseA72 677-2Fair 5-117%—72 67A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 781
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72 67
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Classic Equation 20-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at GP. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 9d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 Won/6 72 2.7-1 Drifted out twice late
8/16 CNL 6f T MSW 5th/8 -7½L 67 17-1 2p;4w1/4p; no rally
2Unlimited Drip▼M. Meneses · J. SweezeyMeneses · SweezeyC6415-1Fair 30-14%—64C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career · Trainer J Kent Sweezey 29% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Camigol 8-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Switches from dirt to turf. Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 21; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 5½f D Moc50000 7th/10 -12L 64 19-1 b Half step slow
3Great ChiefU. Casique · M. McGoeyCasique · McGoey?30-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Jockey Ubardo Casique 18% career · Trainer Monica McGoey
First career start, by Greatest Honour out of Lilacs. First-time starter from a barn that wins 5% of the time with them (21 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 16 days ago
Last three races
First start. By Greatest Honour out of Lilacs (Include)
Trainer M. McGoey: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 19% in the money (21 starts) · 2-year-olds: 3% wins, 19% in the money (37 starts)
Jockey U. Casique in turf: 6 wins from 89 (7%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/16 JWE 4f :51.00 breezing 6/6 from gate
9/18 JWE 4f :50.00 breezing 2/4
8/26 JWE 4f :51.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet from gate
8/15 JWE 4f :51.00 breezing 3/4 from gate
8/5 JWE 3f :39.20 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
4Authentic QualityR. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.?10-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph
Also today · Trainer this race: Screenshot Swift 4-1
Debut for a trainer who is 17% with first-timers, over 268 starts. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 10.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
First start. By Authentic out of Subtle Quality (Quality Road)
Trainer S. Joseph Jr.: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 49% in the money (268 starts) · 2-year-olds: 23% wins, 52% in the money (340 starts)
Jockey R. Hughes in turf: 8 wins from 38 (21%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PMM 4f :49.00 breezing 23/67
10/17 PMM 4f :49.20 breezing 26/48
10/10 PMM 4f :49.60 breezing 51/74 from gate
9/26 PMM 4f :50.00 breezing 34/49
9/18 PMM 3f :36.20 breezing 5/13

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	Won/6	72	2.7-1		Drifted out twice late
8/16	CNL	6f T	MSW	5th/8 -7½L	67	17-1		2p;4w1/4p; no rally

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	5½f D	Moc50000	7th/10 -12L	64	19-1	b	Half step slow

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/16	JWE	4f	:51.00	breezing	6/6	from gate
9/18	JWE	4f	:50.00	breezing	2/4
8/26	JWE	4f	:51.00	breezing	1/2	● bullet from gate
8/15	JWE	4f	:51.00	breezing	3/4	from gate
8/5	JWE	3f	:39.20	breezing	1/1	● bullet

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PMM	4f	:49.00	breezing	23/67
10/17	PMM	4f	:49.20	breezing	26/48
10/10	PMM	4f	:49.60	breezing	51/74	from gate
9/26	PMM	4f	:50.00	breezing	34/49
9/18	PMM	3f	:36.20	breezing	5/13

5StrikeD. Herrera · N. TomlinsonHerrera · TomlinsonA69 66 51▲+3↕9-2Fair 7-113%▲ Up +369 66 51 ↕A3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–82 · Last 3 figs 69 66 51

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career · Trainer Nicholas J Tomlinson 27% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Sabian 9-2, R3: Venezuelan Hope 5-1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 82 against 72 for the next best. Figures are climbing: 51, 66, 69 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	3rd/6 by hd	69	3.2-1	b	Bothered twice late
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	2nd/7 by hd	66	3.6-1	b	Stalked; led; caught
7/20	GP	5f D	sMdSpWt	8th/8 -8½L	51	2.5-1	b	Bumped st; check turn

6Mel's Manner▼J. Ocasio · G. JacksonOcasio · JacksonC5230-1Fair 50-12%—52C▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career · Trainer Gary G Jackson 31% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Axthelm 8-1 · Trainer this race: Stir Flay 10-1
A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Jockey switch: Jose E Morelos last out, Jonathan Ocasio today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 5½f D Moc50000 10th/10 -9½L 52 25-1 Tracked; gave way late
7Slew Vinbiz▼L. Reyes · K. O'ConnellReyes · O'ConnellA728-1Fair 6-114%—72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 782
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Itza Boss 3-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2
Moves up from maiden claiming $35,000 to maiden opt clm. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 2nd/10 -3L 72 30-1 b Rail bid; late gain
8Stir Flay▼J. Morelos · G. JacksonMorelos · JacksonC46 6110-1Fair 20-15%—46 61C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 46 61
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career · Trainer Gary G Jackson 31% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Zevi's Zone 30-1, R3: Laudable 10-1 · Trainer this race: Mel's Manner 30-1
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden opt clm is an easier level on paper. A 61 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 GP 6f D MSW 5th/8 -6¾L 46 16-1 Vied ins;gv way
8/31 GP 6f D sMdSpWt 4th/6 -5½L 61 6.7-1 Vied early; weakened
9Cid Campeador▼LSJ. Rios · A. SanoRios · SanoB64 68 51▲+412-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +464 68 51B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 78LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 64 68 51
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 78LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career
Also today · Trainer R3: Camigol 8-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Jesus M Rios takes over from Samy Camacho in the saddle. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 6th/7 -9L 64 4.8-1 b Bore out break;no fact
8/30 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/8 -4½L 68 12-1 b Split 5wd; lugged in
8/15 GP 5f D MSW 6th/6 -9L 51 13-1 b Always outrun
10Screenshot SwiftM. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.?4-1Fair 8-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph
Also today · Trainer this race: Authentic Quality 10-1
Before this first start, it was the fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 10 (:47.60). Debut for this Gretzky The Great colt, whose dam is Feather's Secret.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 10; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Gretzky the Great out of Feather's Secret (Hear No Evil)
Trainer S. Joseph Jr.: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 49% in the money (268 starts) · 2-year-olds: 23% wins, 52% in the money (340 starts)
Jockey M. Husbands in turf: 13 wins from 124 (10%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PMM 4f :49.00 breezing 23/67
10/17 PMM 4f :49.20 breezing 26/48
10/10 PMM 4f :47.60 breezing 1/74 ● bullet from gate
10/4 PMM 4f :50.20 breezing 24/32
9/26 PMM 3f :36.20 breezing 10/54
11Star of LiamC. Gil · A. MaraghGil · Maragh?20-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career · Trainer Aubrey A Maragh 27% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Won For Lou 8-1
No race form yet, but the Oct 25 work, 4F in :47.00, was the fastest at that distance that morning. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 4).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Colonel Liam out of Pushme Pullyou (Tiz Wonderful)
Trainer A. Maragh: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 33% in the money (3 starts)
Jockey C. Gil in turf: 20 wins from 187 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 GP 4f :47.00 breezing 1/13 ● bullet
10/19 GP 5f 1:03.60 breezing 5/6
10/11 GP 4f :48.00 breezing 8/16
10/4 GP 4f :51.20 breezing 35/38 from gate
9/28 GP 4f :49.60 breezing 22/34
12Mischief Meister▼J. Torrealba · H. SmullenTorrealba · SmullenB686-1Fair 10-19%—68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Sosua Summer 4-1, R3: Squire 8-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 5f T Moc50000 4th/7 -7L 68 10-1 b Bmp brk;2p;pass tiring
13Love Aficionado▼E. Gonzalez · M. TrombettaGonzalez · TrombettaB64 398-1Fair 12-17%—64 39B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64 39
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Always True 3-1
2nd of 30 at 3F on Sep 20, in :37.00. Best recent figure is 64, well under the 78 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump 5/16; mild gain), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.20 on Sep 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 LRL 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 -5½L 64 6.4-1 b Bump 5/16;mild gain
7/25 CNL 5½f T MSW 7th/8 -12L 39 6.4-1 Hesitated;off very slw

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	5½f D	Moc50000	10th/10 -9½L	52	25-1		Tracked; gave way late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 35k	2nd/10 -3L	72	30-1	b	Rail bid; late gain

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	6f D	MSW	5th/8 -6¾L	46	16-1		Vied ins;gv way
8/31	GP	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/6 -5½L	61	6.7-1		Vied early; weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/7 -9L	64	4.8-1	b	Bore out break;no fact
8/30	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/8 -4½L	68	12-1	b	Split 5wd; lugged in
8/15	GP	5f D	MSW	6th/6 -9L	51	13-1	b	Always outrun

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PMM	4f	:49.00	breezing	23/67
10/17	PMM	4f	:49.20	breezing	26/48
10/10	PMM	4f	:47.60	breezing	1/74	● bullet from gate
10/4	PMM	4f	:50.20	breezing	24/32
9/26	PMM	3f	:36.20	breezing	10/54

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	GP	4f	:47.00	breezing	1/13	● bullet
10/19	GP	5f	1:03.60	breezing	5/6
10/11	GP	4f	:48.00	breezing	8/16
10/4	GP	4f	:51.20	breezing	35/38	from gate
9/28	GP	4f	:49.60	breezing	22/34

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	5f T	Moc50000	4th/7 -7L	68	10-1	b	Bmp brk;2p;pass tiring

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	MSW	2nd/6 -5½L	64	6.4-1	b	Bump 5/16;mild gain
7/25	CNL	5½f T	MSW	7th/8 -12L	39	6.4-1		Hesitated;off very slw

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EQB · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

13 runners

Purse

$45,000

Post

3:14 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#1 · 17%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 Souper Handsome (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 72 · 67. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Slew Vinbiz at 8-1. Use #5 Strike in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 SOUPER HANDSOME (7-2) — our number agrees.
#1 SOUPER HANDSOME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 15.8%).
#5 STRIKE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 13.0%).
#10 SCREENSHOT SWIFT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 SLEW VINBIZ (8-1) — our fair 9.4% is above the morning line's 7.9%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Stir Flay; pressure from #1 Souper Handsome, #5 Strike; the shape helps #7 Slew Vinbiz, #13 Love Aficionado; and works against #1 Souper Handsome, #2 Unlimited Drip, #3 Great Chief.

Lead

8Stir Flay891Souper Handsome855Strike85

Press

none

Stalk

9Cid Campeador71

7Slew Vinbiz8013Love Aficionado78

No style yet

6Mel's Manner8712Mischief Meister812Unlimited Drip713Great Chief4Authentic Quality10Screenshot Swift11Star Of Liam

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Stir Flay

Souper Handsome

Strike

Cid Campeador

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Slew Vinbiz

Love Aficionado

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LEG 1 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3

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