1Xy SpeedC. Cedeno · M. LermanCedeno · LermanC78 89 74▼-6@trip 926-1Fair 8-112%
▼ Down -678 89 74@trip 92CCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 89 74
60D LAYOFFA big drop, handicap to optional claiming, and worth asking why. A 91 in its last five clears the 83 par for this level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbled st; no rally), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/9 GP 5f T Handicap 6th/7 -6L 78 4.7-1 b L Bobbled st;no rally 7/25 GP 5f T OC 50k 2nd/5 -6L 89 1.9-1 b L Shuffle 7/16;re-bid 3w 6/25 CNL 5½f T OC 50k n2x 7th/9 -1½L 74 2.1-1 b L Inside; needed bid 2Itza Boss▲L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB82 85 88▼-5≡@trip 893-1Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -582 85 88 ≡@trip 89B▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 85 88
▲ Lone speed on early paceAlso today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 8-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2 · Trainer this race: Itza Lock 12-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2, R3: Won For Lou 8-1Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 85 to 82. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GP 5f T Handicap 7th/11 -½L 82 3.4-1 b L Chase;2p;wkn 9/12 GP 5f D BUmphTSptB100k 5th/8 -1½L 85 10-1 b Tacked; lacked kick 2/8 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x Won/7 88 3.1-1 b L Duel 3wd; clear; drvng 3Zevi's ZoneJ. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakC81 79 71▲+6@trip 8030-1Fair 20-14%
▲ Up +6 · career best81 79 71@trip 80CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 71
CLASS DROPWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 7-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP at 3.2-1. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 35k b Won/7 81 3.2-1 b L Stmbl'd st; 4wd rally 8/30 GP 5f D OC 75k 6th/7 -7½L 79 23-1 b L Stumbl'd st; 5wd trip 8/24 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 6th/8 -2½L 71 22-1 b L Chased 3w turn; no bid 4Sosua Summer▲★J. Torrealba · V. Barboza Jr.Torrealba · Barboza Jr.A94 85 78▲▲+12@trip 934-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best94 85 78@trip 93A▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 933Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 78
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 9360D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Tops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 93 for the next best.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 27 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 GP 5f D OC 50k Won/3 by 1½ 94 1.3-1 b L Stalked; up in time 7/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 2nd/7 -3L 85 3.3-1 b L Good finish outside 5/30 GP 5f D OC 62k b 7th/7 -6½L 78 17-1 b L 2p;swung 6p str;no bid 5Itza Lock▲LSY. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB92 81 79▲▲+13@trip 9112-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best92 81 79@trip 91B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83LSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 81 79
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R3: Brushfire 6-1 · Trainer this race: Itza Boss 3-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2, R3: Won For Lou 8-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKClass relief: optional claiming last time, optional claiming today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rail bid; shut off 1/4. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 GP 5f D OC 75k 3rd/7 -2L 92 3.9-1 b L Rail bid; shut off 1/4 7/25 GP 5f T OC 75k n1x 3rd/7 -4½L 81 6.0-1 b L Swung 5w;willingly 6/26 GP 5½f D OC 75k n1x 3rd/6 -6½L 79 1.4-1 b L Bmp btw; willingly 6Axthelm▼J. Ocasio · R. DibonaOcasio · DibonaC75 86 89▼▼-13@trip 908-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -1375 86 89@trip 90C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 89
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)Figure of 89 on the record sits above the 83 par. Figures have slipped: 89, 86, 75 over its last three.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GP 5f T Handicap 10th/11 -7L 75 14-1 b L Bmp brk;svgnd;no bid 8/30 KD 6f T TrfSprnt G2 10th/12 -6½L 86 47-1 b Chased;4-6w;fanned 8wd 7/4 SAR 5½f T HarvyPack Stk 7th/11 -5¾L 89 30-1 b Chased 4-2w; no kick 7Giant Teddy▲▼H. Figueroa · A. PuckettFigueroa · PuckettB84 93 83▼-4@trip 888-1Fair 10-110%
▼ Down -484 93 83@trip 88B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 93 83
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ FASTEST WORKWinless in 5 starts at this distance. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 15 (3F in :35.60), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 5f D OC 50k 5th/6 -1½L 84 3.2-1 L Chased 2w; no bid 8/30 GP 5f D OC 50k 2nd/3 93 1.3-1 L Off slow; in tight 7/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1xc 3rd/7 -1½L 83 1.3-1 L 3w bid; outkicked 8Test Factor▲N. Juarez · R. CrichtonJuarez · CrichtonA90 78 87▲▲+8@trip 875-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best90 78 87@trip 87A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 78 87
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83★ FASTEST WORK3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 6. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 5f D OC 50k 3rd/6 -1L 90 11-1 b L Rallied 3w; outkicked 8/24 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 2nd/8 -2L 78 4.5-1 b L Re-bid 4w; willingly 7/25 GP 5f T OC 50k 4th/5 -4L 87 2.0-1 b L Rushed;flattened out 9Sabian▲D. Herrera · V. Barboza Jr.Herrera · Barboza Jr.A92 79 81▲▲+12@trip 859-2Fair 5-117%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best92 79 81@trip 85A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 832Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 79 81
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83WON LASTWon last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 5f D OC 50k Won/6 by 3½ 92 3.7-1 b L Tight 3/8; late rally 8/24 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x Won/8 79 2.4-1 b L Bumped st; rail rally 7/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 4th/7 -2L 81 2.8-1 b L Stalked btwn; evenly
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 2
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $50,000
Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #2 Itza Boss (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 82 · 85 · 88. Backup is #9 Sabian at 9-2. Use #4 Sosua Summer in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 ITZA BOSS (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #2 ITZA BOSS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.6%).
- #9 SABIAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 14.3%).
- #4 SOSUA SUMMER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 15.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 ZEVI'S ZONE (30-1) — our fair 2.9% is above the morning line's 2.5%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #2 Itza Boss; pressure from #8 Test Factor, #7 Giant Teddy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
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