FL · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Allowance · $26,900 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$26,900

Post

3:49 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

IQ top

#2 · 90

PANELPASS · lean #7 FISCAL DRAG [MAX]see full panel →

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 98.99

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Gray Haired Gus (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 75 · 81 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Ducky Medwick at 12-1. Use #7 Fiscal Drag in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1WIN

2Gray Haired Gus

Jockey Kevin Navarro 29% career 6-for-48 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jonathan B Buckley 34% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%)

7/9 board here

Jockey switch: Andre Shivnarine Worrie last out, Kevin Navarro today. An 81 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 171d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L4-1

IQ90

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 15d

2PLACE

3Ducky Medwick

Jockey N R Alvarado 34% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Luis A Gutierrez 32% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Maturation 4-1 · Trainer R1: Maturation 4-1, R2: Southern Trouble 20-1, this race: Muscle Shoals 9-2

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to allowance. New trainer: Linda Rice had it last time, Luis A Gutierrez now.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

SHARP LAST OUT Ridden out last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago

M/L12-1

IQ75

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last1st · 14d

3SHOW

7Fiscal Drag

Jockey L E Perez 32% career 13-for-67 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Rachel Sells 23% career 5-for-40 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Percy 4-1, R5: Three Little Birds 7-2, R6: Dancin Jane 5-1 · Trainer R1: Aelfgar 12-1, R5: Winston D 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/4 board here

Changes barns, from Ralph D'Alessandro to Rachel Sells. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and allowance now.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3p3/4; 6w1/4; fin well. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 15; 1 work in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

M/L15-1

IQ73

TierLive

StyleS

Last2nd · 28d

4EXOTICS

8Hey Pal

Jockey Keiber J Coa 35% career 11-for-79 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Beach Invasion 5-2, R2: She's A Goddess 4-1, R4: Grand Warrior 5-1, R6: Hidden Vase 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Beach Invasion 5-2, R2: She's A Goddess 4-1, R4: Percy 4-1, R4: Grand Warrior 5-1 +2 more

7/11 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 83 next best. 3rd of 13 at 5F on May 20, in 1:01.20.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hoppd st; 6w3/4; 5w1/4. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 11 starts here

M/L3-1

IQ65

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last6th · 15d

5EXOTICS

1Muscle Shoals

Jockey O K Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 25 · Trainer Luis A Gutierrez 32% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Janssen 8-1, R2: Southern Trouble 20-1, R5: Mister J T 12-1 · Trainer R1: Maturation 4-1, R2: Southern Trouble 20-1, this race: Ducky Medwick 12-1

4/8 board here

2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 6. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 24 (6F in 1:14.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L9-2

IQ57

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 15d

5Take The Gold

Jockey Joel Cruz 33% career ★ 17-for-78 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 25 · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: The Brown Egg 6-1, R5: Profitability 6-1, R6: Cararra 6-1 · Trainer R1: Beach Invasion 5-2, R2: She's A Goddess 4-1, R4: Percy 4-1, R4: Grand Warrior 5-1 +2 more

5/6 board here

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on May 19; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ57

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last4th · 34d

6Trew Violence

Jockey Luis Pena 25% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer John A Grabowski 22% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Bolt To Run 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 73 to 77 to 83. A step up in company: $11,000 claiming before, allowance today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

TROUBLED TRIP Brk awkwrdly; 3L slw last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ30

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 21d

4Isola D'Oro

Jockey Reylu Gutierrez 32% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Lisa L Lugovich 19% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Gattatiz 7-2, R4: Celtic Prince 5-2

WON LAST3/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. Figures are climbing: 75, 77, 84 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Dkd in st; ridden out.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

M/L7-2

IQ28

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last1st · 21d

At a glance

Market favourite #8 HEY PAL (3-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
#8 HEY PAL — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.5%).
#2 GRAY HAIRED GUS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.6%).
#4 ISOLA D'ORO — our #8 number, about right at the windows (15.4% to their 17.4%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #7 FISCAL DRAG — convergence longshot: fair 5.8% over market 4.9% with PACE_FITS

Longshot value: #7 FISCAL DRAG (15-1) — our fair 5.8% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: 7-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Isola D'Oro; pressure from #3 Ducky Medwick, #1 Muscle Shoals.

Lead

none

Press

4Isola D'Oro833Ducky Medwick771Muscle Shoals746Trew Violence732Gray Haired Gus698Hey Pal695Take The Gold68

Stalk

none

7Fiscal Drag68

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Isola D'Oro

Ducky Medwick

Muscle Shoals

Trew Violence

Gray Haired Gus

Hey Pal

Take The Gold

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fiscal Drag

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#2 Gray Haired Gus

Top of the field by a clear 15-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#2 Gray Haired Gus OVER #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal

Key #2 Gray Haired Gus on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#2 Gray Haired Gus / #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal / #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal · #1 Muscle Shoals

#2 Gray Haired Gus keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#2 Gray Haired Gus / #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal · #1 Muscle Shoals / #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal · #1 Muscle Shoals / ALL or #3 Ducky Medwick · #7 Fiscal Drag · #8 Hey Pal · #1 Muscle Shoals

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 7-8)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.