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¼½FINISHSTART5 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $20,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$32,640
Post
4:14 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
IQ top
#2 · 89
PANELPASS · lean #5 BLESSED FORTUNE [MAX]see full panel →

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 El Jabali (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 41 · 74. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Blessed Fortune at 8-1. Use #8 Zimomo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN
2El Jabali
Jockey William Jr Antongeorgi 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Owns the highest recent figure here at 74.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 12d back
M/L5-2
IQ89
TierTop
StyleE
Last10th · 53d
2PLACE
5Blessed Fortune
Jockey Santiago Gonzalez 33% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose M Camejo 27% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at BTP, beaten 1 length. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden claiming $20,000 now.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 80 days ago
M/L8-1
IQ86
TierContender
StyleP
Last2nd · 38d
3SHOW
8Zimomo
Jockey Yomar Jr Ortiz 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career ★ hot

Off 46 days since the last start. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 89).

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)
M/L2-1
IQ72
TierContender
StyleE
Last5th · 46d
4EXOTICS
4Heartaches
Jockey Carlos Erieltun Franca 14% career · Trainer Ed Roggenkamp 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Purse drops from $75,000 to $32,640 against its last start. Best recent figure is 59, well under the 67 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rough start; no factor), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 4 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30d
M/L20-1
IQ69
TierLongshot
StyleNA
Last8th · 39d
5EXOTICS
6My Awesome Gold
Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-23 on dirt this meet (26%), #1 of 38 · Trainer James K Chapman 26% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Delcap Alice 12-1, R2: C C's Gift 30-1, R3: Thousands Of Hopes 12-1, R6: Nathaniel's Hope 25-1 +1 more
0/3 board here

Sheds 4 pounds from its last start. 10th last time, 19 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 0)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 46 days ago
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
M/L6-1
IQ59
TierLive
StyleE
Last10th · 20d
6
7The New Dixie
Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Colby Williams 31% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Liams Fancy 8-1, R4: Justice Prevails 5-1 · Trainer R4: Justice Prevails 5-1

Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Modernist and Dixie Moll breeding. Worked 4F in :49.60 on Oct 3, 3rd fastest of 20 that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back
M/L12-1
IQ39
TierLongshot
StyleNA
LastDebut
7
1Plank
Jockey Jann N Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Rey Hernandez 31% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Was running in maiden claiming $40,000; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 57 against a 67 par.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days ago
M/L8-1
IQ32
TierLongshot
StyleE
Last5th · 57d
8
9Croatoan
Jockey Mia Nicholls 30% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anna M Meah 29% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R6: Elevated Game 5-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 4 (:48.60), a sign it is training forwardly. A 42 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Lugged in; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 4; 3 works in 30d
M/L5-1
IQ31
TierLive
StyleNA
Last6th · 9d
9
3Gensistheking
Jockey Micah Meeks 13% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Michael Weaver 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Summer Lover 12-1
★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. Beaten 9 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 53 days ago
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
M/L30-1
IQ28
TierOut
StyleNA
Last6th · 20d

At a glance

  • Market favourite #8 ZIMOMO (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #8 ZIMOMO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 25.5%).
  • #2 EL JABALI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 21.9%).
  • #9 CROATOAN — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.2% to their 12.7%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #5 BLESSED FORTUNE — convergence longshot: fair 10.9% over market 8.5% with PACE_FITS
  • Longshot value: #5 BLESSED FORTUNE (8-1) — our fair 10.9% is above the morning line's 8.5%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 El Jabali; pressure from #8 Zimomo, #1 Plank; and works against #1 Plank, #2 El Jabali, #3 Gensistheking.

Lead
2El Jabali928Zimomo891Plank856My Awesome Gold83
Press
none
Stalk
5Blessed Fortune81
Close
none
No style yet
3Gensistheking914Heartaches819Croatoan767The New Dixie

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
El Jabali
92
8
Zimomo
89
1
Plank
85
6
My Awesome Gold
83
5
Blessed Fortune
81

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Gensistheking
32
2
El Jabali
20
8
Zimomo
20
9
Croatoan
19
1
Plank
16
6
My Awesome Gold
15
4
Heartaches
8
5
Blessed Fortune
5

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win / Place

#2 El Jabali (place saver: #5 Blessed Fortune)

#2 El Jabali rates the best; #5 Blessed Fortune the logical insurance if you want to be covered.

Exacta — BOX

#2 El Jabali · #5 Blessed Fortune

Two standouts with little between them — box #2 El Jabali and #5 Blessed Fortune both ways.

Trifecta — BOX

#2 El Jabali · #5 Blessed Fortune · #8 Zimomo

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#2 El Jabali / #5 Blessed Fortune · #8 Zimomo · #4 Heartaches · #6 My Awesome Gold / #5 Blessed Fortune · #8 Zimomo · #4 Heartaches · #6 My Awesome Gold / ALL or #5 Blessed Fortune · #8 Zimomo · #4 Heartaches · #6 My Awesome Gold

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

Bet types offered at this track →

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.