INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $38,000 purse

Field

10 runners

Purse

$38,000

Post

3:12 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

IQ top

#9 · 88

PANELPASS · lean #5 LAMBAY [MAX]see full panel →

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Thousands Of Hopes (a closer, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 61 · 63 · 69. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Speedy Spirit at 12-1. Use #7 Gin And Whiskey in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN

9Thousands Of Hopes

Jockey Victor Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-23 on dirt this meet (26%), #1 of 38 · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 15-for-80 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Delcap Alice 12-1, R2: C C's Gift 30-1, R5: My Awesome Gold 6-1, R6: Nathaniel's Hope 25-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Higher Wish 5-1, R1: Delcap Alice 12-1, R2: Mo Town Foxy Brown 25-1, R2: C C's Gift 30-1 +2 more

8/13 board here

2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. Figures have slipped: 69, 63, 61 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 52d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 13 starts here

M/L12-1

IQ88

TierLive

StyleS

Last8th · 15d

2PLACE

6Speedy Spirit

Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Antonio Duran 25% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Si O Si 6-1, R6: Daddys Dream 15-1 · Trainer this race: El Numero Uno 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 23; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L12-1

IQ87

TierLive

StyleS

Last6th · 15d

3SHOW

7Gin And Whiskey

Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Devarus Douglass 27% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Woodcock Flight 6-1, R7: Never Really Know 8-1

5/10 board here

Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. 3rd of 11 at 4F on May 18, in :49.80.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

TROUBLED TRIP Settled; bid1/2; falterd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ82

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last8th · 19d

4EXOTICS

4Einstein's Ghost

Jockey Jose Ramos Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-40 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer John Haran 30% career 11-for-66 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Take My Picture 12-1, R8: Pear 15-1

8/12 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 79 next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 84 to 73 to 67.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 12 starts here

M/L10-1

IQ82

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last6th · 26d

5EXOTICS

2Most Amazing

Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Got Stripes 8-1, R7: Kenz 12-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Switches from turf to dirt. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L8-1

IQ73

TierLive

StyleP

Last3rd · 15d

5Lambay

Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tracey J Wisner 19% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Dreaming Bonita 8-1, R6: Born Flashy 5-1, R8: Wealth N Taste 6-1 · Trainer R6: Born Flashy 5-1

CLASS UP6/10 board here

A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 49d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L25-1

IQ72

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last4th · 15d

10Rank Randy

Jockey La Cruz Fernando De 10-for-77 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Randy Klopp 38% career ★ 12-for-56 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Staymistyforme 7-2, R2: Soul Of The Night 2-1, R6: Brit's Wit 5-1, R7: Collective Beauty 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Crumbl 9-5, R8: Designer Tag 12-1

Figures are climbing: 46, 68, 72 over its last three. Worked 3F in :36.20 on Sep 23, 2nd of 19 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 34d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L5-2

IQ56

TierContender

StyleE

Last2nd · 26d

8El Payasito

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career ★ 16-for-79 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 15-for-80 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Higher Wish 5-1, R2: Mo Town Foxy Brown 25-1, R6: Huevos D'Oro 30-1, R6: St. Armands Key 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R1: Higher Wish 5-1, R1: Delcap Alice 12-1, R2: Mo Town Foxy Brown 25-1, R2: C C's Gift 30-1 +2 more

WON LAST7/9 board here

Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Winner of a 6-horse allowance race at IND last time.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 70d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L2-1

IQ50

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 7d

1Indy Lake

Jockey Hannah Leahey 21% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Miguel Silva 34% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #3 of 46

Also today · Jockey R4: Valeska's Promise 15-1, R8: Best Hat 15-1 · Trainer R4: Valeska's Promise 15-1, R6: Summer Lover 12-1

3/5 board here

Raises its level, $15,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse $15,000 claiming race at IND, beaten ½ length.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ40

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last3rd · 7d

3El Numero Uno

Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 4-for-47 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Antonio Duran 25% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Well Hey There 2-1 · Trainer this race: Speedy Spirit 12-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND at 5.5-1. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Held sway; geared down.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 23 (4F in :46.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L5-1

IQ28

TierLive

StyleE

Last1st · 70d

At a glance

Market favourite #8 EL PAYASITO (2-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
#8 EL PAYASITO — our #8 number, about right at the windows (24.0% to their 25.5%).
#10 RANK RANDY — our #7 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 21.9%).
#3 EL NUMERO UNO — our #10 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 12.8%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #5 LAMBAY — convergence longshot: fair 3.6% over market 2.9% with PACE_FITS

Longshot value: #5 LAMBAY (25-1) — our fair 3.6% is above the morning line's 2.9%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 El Numero Uno; pressure from #1 Indy Lake, #10 Rank Randy; the shape helps #5 Lambay, #6 Speedy Spirit, #7 Gin And Whiskey; and works against #1 Indy Lake, #3 El Numero Uno, #10 Rank Randy.

Lead

3El Numero Uno931Indy Lake8910Rank Randy89

Press

8El Payasito884Einstein's Ghost87

Stalk

2Most Amazing70

7Gin And Whiskey785Lambay759Thousands Of Hopes726Speedy Spirit68

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

El Numero Uno

Indy Lake

Rank Randy

El Payasito

Einstein's Ghost

Most Amazing

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gin And Whiskey

Speedy Spirit

Thousands Of Hopes

Lambay

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Place / Show

#9 Thousands Of Hopes · #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey

Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.

Exacta — BOX

#9 Thousands Of Hopes · #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey

Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.

Trifecta — BOX

#9 Thousands Of Hopes · #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#9 Thousands Of Hopes / #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey · #4 Einstein's Ghost · #2 Most Amazing / #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey · #4 Einstein's Ghost · #2 Most Amazing / ALL or #6 Speedy Spirit · #7 Gin And Whiskey · #4 Einstein's Ghost · #2 Most Amazing

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #5 Lambay — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.