INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $15,000
Claiming $15,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Dreaming Bonita (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 59 · 66 · 66. Backup is #3 Troglodyte at 4-1. Use #2 Higher Wish in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Beaten 12 lengths for 7th in an 8-horse allowance race at IND.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 64 to 60 to 51. Gets a new rider, Evin A Roman replacing Alberto Burgos.
Won last out in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Was running in maiden special weight; today's $15,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 79. A big drop, allowance to $15,000 claiming, and worth asking why.
Figures have slipped: 65, 39, 35 over its last three. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $15,000 claiming.
Jockey switch: Amir Mendoza last out, Victor Lara today. Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $15,000 claiming. 7th last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 11.
Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and $15,000 claiming now. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
Best recent figure is 59, well under the 70 par for this level. Last out was 7th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 CRUMBL (9-5) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #4 CRUMBL — our #4 number, about right at the windows (25.6% to their 27.3%).
- #3 TROGLODYTE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 15.3%).
- #1 STAYMISTYFORME — our #8 number, about right at the windows (15.4% to their 17.0%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #6 PERNICIOUS (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.6%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Sheshois; pressure from #1 Staymistyforme, #4 Crumbl; the shape helps #2 Higher Wish, #3 Troglodyte, #4 Crumbl; and works against #1 Staymistyforme, #9 Sheshois.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Place / Show
#5 Dreaming Bonita · #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish
Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.
Exacta — BOX
#5 Dreaming Bonita · #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish
Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.
Trifecta — BOX
#5 Dreaming Bonita · #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#5 Dreaming Bonita / #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish · #4 Crumbl · #6 Pernicious / #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish · #4 Crumbl · #6 Pernicious / ALL or #3 Troglodyte · #2 Higher Wish · #4 Crumbl · #6 Pernicious
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)