R9 Indiana Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $20,500 purse

3:22 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $20,500 · 7 runners3:22 PM · 1½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $20K · State-Bred Allowance · $20,500 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Keenies Final Gift (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 113 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

1Keenies Final Gift▼★M. Munoz · L. DeMunoz · DeC57 93 69▼▼-22↕@trip 1138-1Fair 10-18%▼▼ Big drop -2257 93 69 ↕@trip 113C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 113

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–93 · Best fig at today's trip 113 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 93 69

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 113

Jockey Martin Munoz 28% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer La Mora Raul De 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 113, with 103 next best. Runs for $20,500 today after a $26,273 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Squeezed; impeded st. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Aug 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/15	IND	1.81818f D	IndDistfCh26k	5th/5 -5L	57	12-1	b L	Squeezed;impeded st
8/27	SRR	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	Won/4 by nk	93	2.6-1	b L	Up late for win
5/19	IND	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	9th/10 -3½L	69	9.2-1	b L	Tight; cut off early

2Rock Hard LoveL. Martinez · T. CunninghamMartinez · CunninghamA97 87 84▲▲+8@trip 1036-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +897 87 84@trip 103A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 103 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 87 84

Jockey Luz Daniel Martinez 33% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Tony Cunningham 28% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Fireball Mail 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK5/8 board here

Was running in allowance; today's allowance is an easier level on paper. 2nd last time, a neck back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 16 (1F in :10.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/6	SRR	1.13636f D	Alw n1y	2nd/9 by nk	97	3.6-1	Missed the nod
8/6	IND	1.59091f D	sAirBrnLead35k	5th/7 -1¼L	87	12-1	Never a factor
6/24	IND	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	5th/9 -¾L	84	4.4-1	Broke out; no threat

3Perrys Secret GoldD. Luna · T. EgglestonLuna · EgglestonB77 87 90▼▼-11@trip 905-2Fair 9-219%▼▼ Big drop -1177 87 90@trip 90B

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 87 90

Jockey Diaz Luis Eduardo Luna 34% career 6-for-43 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 16-for-121 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R1: Three Point Seven 7-5, R2: Five Star 9-5, R2: Prize Eyes 7-2, this race: Hf Just Reno 6-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4/8 board here

Figures have slipped: 90, 87, 77 over its last three. Diaz Luis Eduardo Luna takes over from Rolando Del Rio Pina in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Crowded; shut off erly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 67 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	IND	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	10th/10 -3½L	77	4.8-1	b L	Crowded; shut off erly
8/29	IND	1.59091f D	EscondBchS34k	3rd/7 -½L	87	12-1	b L	Even run
6/15	IND	1.59091f D	sAlw19306n2l	Won/9	90	3.1-1	b L	Short lead; inched up

4Moonin to the JazzG. Vazquez-Gomez · J. VazquezVazquez-Gomez · VazquezA93 69 85▲▲+10↕@trip 945-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +1093 69 85 ↕@trip 94A2

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 69 85

Jockey Giovani Vazquez-Gomez 27% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jessica A Vazquez 30% career 4-for-40 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Philomina 4-1

5/9 board here

Last out was 3rd, a nose behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at IND.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 224 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	IND	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	3rd/10 by ns	93	50-1	b L	Popped; led; denied
9/5	SRR	1½f D	Alw n3l	8th/8 -3¼L	69	23-1	b L	Lacked effort
8/13	IND	1.59091f D	sAlw18818n2l	Won/7	85	2.4-1	b L	Led; held

5PhilominaF. Morin · J. VazquezMorin · VazquezB88 73 92▲+3@trip 924-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +388 73 92@trip 92B1

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 73 92

Jockey Fernando Morin 30% career ★ 7-for-33 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 40 · Trainer Jessica A Vazquez 30% career 4-for-40 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Moonin To The Jazz 5-1

WON LAST5/8 board here

Winner of a 10-horse allowance race at IND last time. 3rd of 15 at 1F on Jun 2, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 150 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	IND	1.59091f D	sAlw19500n2l	Won/10	88	13-1	b	Clear;driving
8/29	IND	1.59091f D	JulieVeltm34k	3rd/6 -3L	73	14-1	b	Never a factor
7/28	IND	1½f D	sAlw18818n2l	4th/7 -¾L	92	3.2-1	b	Moved up; no threat

6Hf Just RenoR. Pina · T. EgglestonPina · EgglestonB97 88 97▲▲+8@trip 976-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best97 88 97@trip 97B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 88 97

Jockey Rolando Del Rio Pina 32% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 16-for-121 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Three Point Seven 7-5, R2: Five Star 9-5, R2: Prize Eyes 7-2, this race: Perrys Secret Gold 5-2

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Freshened 94 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Won last out in a 7-horse allowance race at IND.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/28	IND	1½f D	sAlw18818n2l	Won/7	97	1.3-1	b L	Edged up between
7/7	IND	1½f D	sAlw19500n2l	3rd/10 -½L	88	6.4-1	b L	Brushd st; evenly late
5/30	IND	1½f D	sAlw19500n2l	6th/10 -1½L	97	3.2-1	b L	No menace inside

7Jess a RiotE. Diaz · C. BarrazaDiaz · BarrazaA82 79 85►≡@trip 1043-1Fair 9-218%► Steady82 79 85 ≡@trip 104A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–88 · Best fig at today's trip 104 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 79 85

Jockey Edgar Diaz 33% career 3-for-36 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Claudio Barraza 32% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%)

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

Purse drops from $82,400 to $20,500 against its last start. Jockey switch: Diaz Luis Eduardo Luna last out, Edgar Diaz today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump start; no impact. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 31; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	IND	1.81818f D	sHoosirPkCl82k	6th/7 -3¼L	82	23-1	b	Bump start; no impact
8/29	IND	1.81818f D	sBobWoodrdM82k	6th/6 -1¼L	79	18-1	b	Brushed st; trailed
8/6	IND	1.81818f D	HorshClssc84k	6th/10 -1¼L	85	6.0-1	b	No factor outside

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 9

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $20,500 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$20,500

Post

3:22 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 18%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.28

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Philomina (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 88 · 73 · 92. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Moonin To The Jazz at 5-1. Use #7 Jess A Riot in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 PERRYS SECRET GOLD (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
#3 PERRYS SECRET GOLD — our #5 number, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 22.0%).
#7 JESS A RIOT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.2%).
#5 PHILOMINA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Keenies Final Gift, #2 Rock Hard Love, #3 Perrys Secret Gold.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Keenies Final Gift2Rock Hard Love3Perrys Secret Gold4Moonin To The Jazz5Philomina6Hf Just Reno7Jess A Riot

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hf Just Reno

Keenies Final Gift

Philomina

Jess A Riot

Perrys Secret Gold

Moonin To The Jazz

Rock Hard Love

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