R1 Indiana Downs · Maiden Claiming $20,000

10:45 AM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $20,000 · 8 runners10:45 AM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $20K · Maiden Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Three Point Seven▼▲O. Mojica · T. EgglestonMojica · EgglestonA51 407-5Fair 3-126%—51 40A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 71▲ Lone speed on early pace3

    Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 51 40

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 71▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey O Mojica 34% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 16-for-121 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Beach Vibe 3-1, R8: Laythatpistoldown 7-2 · Trainer R2: Five Star 9-5, R2: Prize Eyes 7-2, R9: Perrys Secret Gold 5-2, R9: Hf Just Reno 6-1

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 51 against 38 for the next best. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $20,000 today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 24d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15IND5½f DfsMdSpWt4th/9 -½L515.4-1bRail;clear;gave way1/8
    9/3IND5½f DfsMdSpWt6th/10 -3½L402.1-1bDuel inside;gv way1/4
  2. 2Strawberry Kisses▼▼J. Riquelme · A. KranzRiquelme · KranzC17 2820-1Fair 15-16%—17 28C▼ Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 71▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (17 vs 28)

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 17 28

    ▼ Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 71▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (17 vs 28)
    Jockey J Riquelme 24% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Amara Kranz 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Trainer this race: Evening Charm 6-1

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper. Last out was 7th, 14 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13IND1m DfsMdSpWt7th/7 -14L1710-1b4path;faded3/16
    6/25IND5f DfsMdSpWt8th/9 -15L2844-1bBumped start
  3. 3Bertie's World▼S. Sanjur · A. DuranSanjur · DuranA35 38 28►5-1Fair 8-110%► Steady35 38 28A▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 71

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 35 38 28

    ▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 71
    Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Antonio Duran 25% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Azteca Alegre 25-1, R6: Man Of The Hour 10-1, R7: Ready To Seize 8-1, R7: Fogonero 4-1 · Trainer R4: Azteca Alegre 25-1, R7: Fogonero 4-1

    Beaten 1 length for 3rd in a 6-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at IND. A 38 is the high figure lately, short of the 71 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
    TROUBLED TRIP Vied rail; steadied1/8 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 11d back
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8IND5½f DfsMd300003rd/6 -1L353.2-1bVied rail;steadied1/8;
    9/29IND1m DfsMdSpWt9th/10 -8½L3856-1bAwk;stlk5p;gave way1/4
    9/3IND5½f DfsMdSpWt9th/10 -13L2834-1bBmp;stlk rail;fade str
  4. 4OxbabeA. Mendoza · G. GarciaMendoza · Garcia?9-2Fair 9-218%—Debut?1

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?

    Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 15-for-84 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Nordic Prince 15-1, R5: Honor And Courage 15-1, R7: Lookout Kid 12-1 · Trainer R5: Honor And Courage 15-1, R6: Start Out 10-1

    Unraced so far; the pedigree is Oxbow out of Snapdragon. Debut for a trainer who is 10% with first-timers, over 107 starts.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 3d back

    Last three races

    First start. By Oxbow out of Snapdragon (Super Saver)
    Trainer G. Garcia: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 37% in the money (107 starts) · 2-year-olds: 15% wins, 39% in the money (347 starts)
    Jockey A. Mendoza in sprints: 57 wins from 358 (16%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/27IND4f:51.80breezing20/26from gate
    10/20IND4f:50.80breezing22/30
    9/23IND3f:37.60breezing6/19
    8/19IND4f:53.00breezing49/52from gate
    8/11IND3f:37.80breezing6/12
  5. 5Read the Book▼LSJ. Gutierrez · S. MullinsGutierrez · MullinsB3520-1Fair 15-16%—35B▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 71LS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 35

    ▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 71LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Jose Ramos Gutierrez 32% career 6-for-42 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Scott D Mullins 34% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. The Sep 9 work, 3F in :36.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 31d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15IND5½f DfsMdSpWt7th/9 -11L3528-1Awk;passed tired ones
  6. 6Velvet Reign▼A. Ulloa · R. GorhamUlloa · GorhamA297-2Fair 6-115%—29A▼ Best fig 29 is 5+ under today's par 71

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 29

    ▼ Best fig 29 is 5+ under today's par 71
    Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Prize Eyes 7-2 · Trainer R2: Endless Sky 6-1

    Drops from maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $20,000. Best recent figure is 29, well under the 71 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8IND5½f DfsMd300005th/6 -6L291.5-1Pressed;settled;no bid
  7. 7Evening Charm▼A. Crispin · A. KranzCrispin · KranzB28 29 37▼-76-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -728 29 37B▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 71

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 28 29 37

    ▼ Best fig 38 is 5+ under today's par 71
    Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Amara Kranz 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Brickhousejustice 20-1 · Trainer this race: Strawberry Kisses 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK0/4 board here

    Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Figures have slipped: 37, 29, 28 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 0)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 31d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13IND1m DfsMdSpWt5th/7 -8½L2812-1b3p;bid3/4;duel;gv way
    9/17IND1m DfsMdSpWt4th/4 -1½L293.8-1bDuel;vied3w;gave way
    8/11IND5f DfsMdSpWt8th/11 -9¾L3711-1b3path;faded stretch
  8. 8Momimosa▼M. Fernandez · C. ContrerasFernandez · ContrerasB24 2215-1Fair 8-110%—24 22B▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 712

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 24 22

    ▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 71
    Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cipriano Contreras 36% career ★ 6-for-21 on dirt this meet (29%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Cyber Runner 8-1, R6: Gdoubleyou 9-2, R8: Lady Blast 15-1, R8: Little Ugh 25-1 · Trainer R6: Gdoubleyou 9-2

    Jockey switch: Evin A Roman last out, Miguel Fernandez today. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8IND5½f DfsMd300006th/6 -4½L242.8-1Hop;angld4p3/16;faded
    9/24IND5½f DfsMdSpWt6th/8 -11L226.8-16p early;3p1/4;gv way

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $20,000

Field
8 runners
Purse
$20,000
Post
10:45 AM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#4 · 18%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Oxbabe (a tactical type, M/L 9-2). Backup is #8 Momimosa at 15-1. Use #1 Three Point Seven in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 THREE POINT SEVEN (7-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #1 THREE POINT SEVEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (29.9% to their 32.4%).
  • #6 VELVET REIGN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.7% to their 17.3%).
  • #4 OXBABE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.4%, they've got 14.1%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #4 OXBABE — we make it 16.4%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 MOMIMOSA (15-1) — our fair 6.3% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Three Point Seven; pressure from #3 Bertie's World, #7 Evening Charm; and works against #1 Three Point Seven, #2 Strawberry Kisses, #3 Bertie's World.

Lead
1Three Point Seven923Bertie's World857Evening Charm73
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
5Read The Book816Velvet Reign818Momimosa792Strawberry Kisses674Oxbabe

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Three Point Seven
92
3
Bertie's World
85
7
Evening Charm
73

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

2
Strawberry Kisses
30
7
Evening Charm
30
3
Bertie's World
18
6
Velvet Reign
18
8
Momimosa
18
1
Three Point Seven
12
5
Read The Book
12
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