R2 Indiana Downs · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

11:15 AM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $38,500 · 7 runners11:15 AM · 5½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $38K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Five Star▼M. Pedroza · T. EgglestonPedroza · EgglestonA22@trip 229-5Fair 7-221%—22@trip 22A▼ Best fig 22 is 5+ under today's par 65
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #6 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 22 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 22
▼ Best fig 22 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Marcelino Pedroza 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 16-for-121 on dirt this meet (13%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Victory On Ice 4-5, R5: Hard Rocker 4-1, R7: Troubleonthegreen 3-1, R8: Union Rose 3-1 · Trainer R1: Three Point Seven 7-5, this race: Prize Eyes 7-2, R9: Perrys Secret Gold 5-2, R9: Hf Just Reno 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
A 22 is the high figure lately, short of the 65 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 14 (4F in :48.20), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/22 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/7 -9L 22 1.5-1 b Stmb;press rail;gv way
2Passionforwinning▼▲LSB. Martinez · S. FosdickMartinez · FosdickB3125-1Fair 15-17%—31B▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 65▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 31
▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 65▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Longshot read: 25-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steve Fosdick 22% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Get Hot Stay Hot 20-1, R6: Hurricane Express 20-1 · Trainer R5: Thousand Byus 20-1, R6: Chondrite 3-1, R7: Turbeau Man 5-1, R7: My Lunar Charm 5-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
A step up in company: maiden claiming $20,000 before, maiden special weight today. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 16d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 IND 5f T MCL 20k 11th/11 -15L 31 27-1 3path;faded stretch
3Tiz Sahara▼J. Romero · T. MedinaRomero · MedinaB10@trip 105-1Fair 5-116%—10@trip 10B▼ Best fig 10 is 5+ under today's par 652
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 10 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 10
▼ Best fig 10 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tomas Medina 32% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R4: My Bumble Bee 25-1, R7: Junkyard Justice 20-1 · Trainer this race: Brickhousejustice 20-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Beaten 14 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Best recent figure is 10, well under the 65 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/7 -14L 10 4.0-1 Awk;5path;faded str
4Brickhousejustice▼A. Crispin · T. MedinaCrispin · MedinaB-72@trip -7220-1Fair 10-18%—-72@trip -72B▼ Best fig -72 is 5+ under today's par 653
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip -72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs -72
▼ Best fig -72 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Tomas Medina 32% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Evening Charm 6-1 · Trainer this race: Tiz Sahara 5-1
7th last time, 23 lengths back, in a field of 7. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 23d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/7 -23L -72 30-1 Eased;walked off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/7 -9L	22	1.5-1	b	Stmb;press rail;gv way

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	IND	5f T	MCL 20k	11th/11 -15L	31	27-1		3path;faded stretch

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/7 -14L	10	4.0-1		Awk;5path;faded str

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/7 -23L	-72	30-1		Eased;walked off

5J's Alley Cat▼▲L. De · J. DavisDe · DavisA45 33 32▲+7@trip 323-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +745 33 32@trip 32A▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 65▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 23%) cutting back to a sprint

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 32 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 45 33 32

▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 65▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 23%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey La Cruz Fernando De 13-for-86 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Joseph D Davis 33% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Livelaughloy 1-1, R5: Leopard Rock 6-1, R7: Storm Back 15-1, R7: Toy'stroubledhero 10-1 +1 more

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. Has moved up each time out, 32 to 33 to 45.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 114 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	IND	1m D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -1L	45	6.1-1	b	Clear;duel;yielded
9/17	IND	1m D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/4 -½L	33	3.0-1	b	Duel;vied rail;yielded
9/1	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/7 -5L	32	5.3-1		Stalked4p;faded str

6Prize Eyes▼A. Ulloa · T. EgglestonUlloa · EgglestonA45@trip 457-2Fair 4-120%—45@trip 45A▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 651
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 45 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 45
▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 16-for-121 on dirt this meet (13%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Velvet Reign 7-2 · Trainer R1: Three Point Seven 7-5, this race: Five Star 9-5, R9: Perrys Secret Gold 5-2, R9: Hf Just Reno 6-1
2nd of 8 at 4F on Sep 17, in :48.60. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 45 against a 65 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 24 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 IND 5½f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/7 -6½L 45 9.3-1 b Rail;4p str;gv way1/8
7Endless SkyM. Murrill · R. GorhamMurrill · Gorham?6-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Maid Of Steel 8-5, R5: Guide Me Home 12-1, R6: Chondrite 3-1, R7: Machts Nichts 20-1 · Trainer R1: Velvet Reign 7-2
Debut for this Sahara Sky filly, whose dam is Severn Tide. Debut for a trainer who is 14% with first-timers, over 147 starts.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 16d ago
Last three races
First start. By Sahara Sky out of Severn Tide (Pure Prize)
Trainer R. Gorham: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 44% in the money (147 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 42% in the money (133 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 44% in the money (539 starts)
Jockey M. Murrill in sprints: 40 wins from 215 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/14 IND 4f :51.20 breezing 33/41 from gate
10/6 IND 4f :51.80 breezing 28/30 from gate
9/26 IND 3f :41.20 breezing 13/14

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	IND	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -6½L	45	9.3-1	b	Rail;4p str;gv way1/8

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/14	IND	4f	:51.20	breezing	33/41	from gate
10/6	IND	4f	:51.80	breezing	28/30	from gate
9/26	IND	3f	:41.20	breezing	13/14

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$38,500

Post

11:15 AM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#6 · 20%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Prize Eyes (a closer, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 45. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Tiz Sahara at 5-1. Use #4 Brickhousejustice in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 FIVE STAR (9-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
#1 FIVE STAR — our #6 number, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 29.2%).
#6 PRIZE EYES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 18.1%).
#5 J'S ALLEY CAT — our #7 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 20.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 PASSIONFORWINNING (25-1) — our fair 4.0% is above the morning line's 3.1%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 J's Alley Cat.

Lead

5J's Alley Cat78

Press

none

Stalk

1Five Star81

6Prize Eyes76

No style yet

2Passionforwinning863Tiz Sahara824Brickhousejustice697Endless Sky

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Five Star

J's Alley Cat

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Prize Eyes

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