R4 Indiana Downs · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

12:21 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $36,000 · 8 runners12:21 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $36K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Victory on Ice▲★M. Pedroza · A. GranitzPedroza · GranitzA57 64@trip 644-5Fair 1-149%—57 64@trip 64A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 641

    Card model 49% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 64

    ▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 64
    Jockey Marcelino Pedroza 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Five Star 9-5, R5: Hard Rocker 4-1, R7: Troubleonthegreen 3-1, R8: Union Rose 3-1 · Trainer this race: Cyber Runner 8-1, R7: Troubleonthegreen 3-1, R7: Machts Nichts 20-1

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 64. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE HELPS Little pace to challenge it, so it can get loose on a soft lead.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 24 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND5½f DsMdSpWt2nd/10 -3½L571.0-1bAwk;press3p;no match
    9/23IND5½f DsMdSpWt2nd/9 -1½L646.8-1b3path;rally4path1/8
  2. 2Fireball MailJ. Morales · T. CunninghamMorales · Cunningham?5-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?

    Jockey Joshua Morales 32% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tony Cunningham 28% career
    Also today · Trainer R9: Rock Hard Love 6-1

    Unraced so far; the pedigree is Holiday Promise out of Spousal Privilege. Debut for a trainer who is 25% with first-timers, over 20 starts.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

    Last three races

    First start. By Holiday Promise out of Spousal Privilege (Successful Appeal)
    Trainer T. Cunningham: 1st-time starters: 25% wins, 30% in the money (20 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 26% wins, 32% in the money (19 starts) · Maiden special weights: 20% wins, 31% in the money (51 starts)
    Jockey J. Morales in sprints: 4 wins from 28 (14%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/23IND4f:51.20breezing11/14
    10/14IND4f:48.60breezing8/41
    10/6IND3f:36.60breezing2/8from gate
    7/22IND4f:52.80breezing31/33
    7/7IND3f:38.60breezing18/25
  3. 3Get Hot Stay HotB. Martinez · D. MartinMartinez · Martin?20-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?

    Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dawn Martin 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Passionforwinning 25-1, R6: Hurricane Express 20-1

    No race form yet, but worked 4F in :48.20 on Jun 23, 2nd fastest of 21 that morning. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 23.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Flameaway out of Boom Boom Boom (More Than Ready)
    Trainer D. Martin: 1st-time starters: 6% wins, 28% in the money (18 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 31% in the money (16 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 36% in the money (61 starts)
    Jockey B. Martinez in sprints: 25 wins from 114 (22%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/23FP4f:50.40breezing8/13from gate
    10/13FP4f:51.20breezing22/29
    7/20FP3f:36.20breezing2/2from gate
    7/10FP4f:50.80breezing10/14
    6/23FP4f:48.20breezing2/21from gate
  4. 4Azteca Alegre▼LSS. Sanjur · A. DuranSanjur · DuranB25@trip 2525-1Fair 30-14%—25@trip 25B▼ Best fig 25 is 5+ under today's par 67LS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 25 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 25

    ▼ Best fig 25 is 5+ under today's par 67LS

    Longshot read: 25-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Antonio Duran 25% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Bertie's World 5-1, R6: Man Of The Hour 10-1, R7: Ready To Seize 8-1, R7: Fogonero 4-1 · Trainer R1: Bertie's World 5-1, R7: Fogonero 4-1

    9th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 10. Best recent figure is 25, well under the 67 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 3d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND5½f DsMdSpWt9th/10 -13L2534-1Inside;faded stretch
  5. 5Red Clay Runaway▼J. Bealmear · R. MatthewsBealmear · MatthewsA54 43@trip 439-2Fair 8-112%—54 43@trip 43A▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 67

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 43 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 43

    ▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 67
    Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 4-for-56 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Randy Matthews 26% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Blueberry Betty 20-1, R7: Bout Tree Fiddy 12-1, R8: Figurine 30-1

    Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 11 lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE Closing into slow fractions is hard work.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 6d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/28IND1m DsMdSpWt3rd/8 -11L546.0-1Improved position late
    9/2IND5½f DsMdSpWt4th/9 -11L432.7-1Bid5p;improvd position
  6. 6Cyber RunnerM. Fernandez · A. GranitzFernandez · Granitz?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?

    Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Momimosa 15-1, R6: Gdoubleyou 9-2, R8: Lady Blast 15-1, R8: Little Ugh 25-1 · Trainer this race: Victory On Ice 4-5, R7: Troubleonthegreen 3-1, R7: Machts Nichts 20-1

    Unraced; this barn has 59 first-time starters on record and wins 8% of them. Debut for a Cyberknife youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $17,000.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Cyberknife out of Topic (Discreet Cat)
    Trainer A. Granitz: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 37% in the money (59 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 43% in the money (44 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 51% in the money (175 starts)
    Jockey M. Fernandez in sprints: 5 wins from 46 (11%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/22IND4f:49.80breezing10/17
    10/14IND4f:50.40breezing27/41
    10/6IND4f:49.20breezing20/30from gate
    9/29IND4f:50.00breezing15/18
    9/19IND4f:49.60breezing10/19from gate
  7. 7Nordic Prince▼A. Mendoza · J. HaranMendoza · HaranA47 44 45►≡@trip 4715-1Fair 10-19%► Steady47 44 45 ≡@trip 47A▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 672

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 44–47 · Best fig at today's trip 47 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 44 45

    ▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 67
    Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 15-for-84 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer John Haran 30% career 12-for-70 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Oxbabe 9-2, R5: Honor And Courage 15-1, R7: Lookout Kid 12-1 · Trainer R7: Bout Tree Fiddy 12-1, R7: Zach 5-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK0/4 board here

    Amir Mendoza takes over from Jose Ramos Gutierrez in the saddle. The Aug 6 work, 3F in :37.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 85d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND5½f DsMdSpWt5th/10 -5L4737-1Stalked4p;gave way str
    9/28IND1m DsMdSpWt7th/8 -16L4414-1Angld5p5/16;bid;faltrd
    9/2IND1m DsMdSpWt4th/6 -11L455.1-1Stalked2p;faded5/8
  8. 8My Bumble Bee▼J. Romero · J. EgbertRomero · EgbertB31@trip 3125-1Fair 20-14%—31@trip 31B▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 673

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 31 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 31

    ▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 67
    Jockey Joseph M Romero 31% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer James Egbert 14% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Tiz Sahara 5-1, R7: Junkyard Justice 20-1

    Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 10 at the first call. Last out was 7th, 15 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND5½f DsMdSpWt7th/10 -15L3156-1Bmpd;pass tired rivals

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field
8 runners
Purse
$36,000
Post
12:21 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#1 · 49%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Victory On Ice (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 57 · 64. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Nordic Prince at 15-1. Use #8 My Bumble Bee in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 VICTORY ON ICE (4-5) — our number agrees.
  • #1 VICTORY ON ICE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (46.0% to their 46.2%).
  • #5 RED CLAY RUNAWAY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.1%).
  • #2 FIREBALL MAIL — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 NORDIC PRINCE (15-1) — our fair 6.4% is above the morning line's 5.2%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

the shape helps #1 Victory On Ice; and works against #2 Fireball Mail, #3 Get Hot Stay Hot, #4 Azteca Alegre.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
1Victory On Ice84
Close
5Red Clay Runaway71
No style yet
7Nordic Prince834Azteca Alegre718My Bumble Bee622Fireball Mail3Get Hot Stay Hot6Cyber Runner

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Victory On Ice
84

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Red Clay Runaway
22
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.