1Bako CountryE. Payeras · G. VallejoPayeras · VallejoB67 45 74▲+5↕9-215%
▲ Up +567 45 74 ↕BCard model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–74 · Last 3 figs 67 45 74
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 13-for-31 on dirt this meet (42%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Blessed Angel 9-5, R3: Smugglers Isle 5-1, R4: Autism Puzzle 7-2 · Trainer this race: Amor Secreto 5-1, R4: Cupid's Crusader 15-1, R4: Autism Puzzle 7-2, R4: What A Gift 12-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSPrime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 5½ lengths for 5th in a 7-horse $12,500 claiming race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD Edgar Payeras from post 1 here: 47 wins, 93 top-3 in 140 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 SA 5½f D Clm 12k n2l 5th/7 -5½L 67 12-1 b L Chase 2-3w;gave way 8/23 DMR 1m D Clm 10k n2lc 9th/9 -15L 45 9.6-1 b L Pinballed brk;3w;empty 7/25 DMR 6f D MCL 16k Won/12 by 3½ 74 5.6-1 b L Green early;ins;angled 2ReadytoboardRan 3rdP. Flores · R. LucasFlores · LucasA81 69 63▲▲+13@trip 817-2Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best81 69 63@trip 81ACard model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 69 63
Jockey P Flores 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R3: Go Holiday 15-1 · Trainer this race: Lucky And Gone 9-5, this race: Rousing Rhythm 5-1, R2: Legal Fiction 6-1CLASS UPA step up in company: $8,000 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today. Figures are climbing: 63, 69, 81 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 60d back)RECORD P Flores from post 2 here: 3 wins, 22 top-3 in 40 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 LA 4.54545f D Clm 8k n2l 2nd/6 -1¼L 81 7.9-1 b L 3w;angld in;2nd best 9/20 LA 4½f D MCL 5kc Won/4 69 1.1-1 b L Chased 2w;drew off 8/20 DMR 6f D sMd12500 7th/12 -6½L 63 35-1 b L Chased 2wd; faded 3SynopsisRan 4thA. Bautista · G. HaleyBautista · HaleyA84 72 76▲▲+10@trip 849-2Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best84 72 76@trip 84ACard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 72 76
Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Gloria Haley 19% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)Jky 9/37 from post 3Moves up from $6,250 claiming to $12,500 claiming. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 6.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d agoRECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 3 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 37 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Clm 6k n2l 2nd/6 -1L 84 25-1 b L Chased winnr;game 2d 9/6 LA 4.54545f D Clm 6k n2l 3rd/4 -3½L 72 6.6-1 b L Ftg;press ins;weaken 7/11 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2l 5th/5 -6¾L 76 25-1 b L Tracked 3p; no threat 4Lucky and Gone▲★Ran 1stC. Herrera · R. LucasHerrera · LucasA86 89 75▲+6@trip 899-5Fair 5-230%
▲ Up +686 89 75@trip 89A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 891Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 89 75
▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 89Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R2: Legal Fiction 6-1 · Trainer this race: Readytoboard 7-2, this race: Rousing Rhythm 5-1, R2: Legal Fiction 6-1Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 89, with 84 next best. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 89d back)RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Cristobal Herrera from post 4 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 30 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 LA 4.54545f D Alw n1ml 6th/6 -2½L 86 4.6-1 b L Chased 2w;wkn upper 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 4th/6 -3½L 89 1.5-1 b L Trbld st;hustld;flattn 9/6 DMR 5f T OC 50k 9th/10 -½L 75 60-1 b L Vied inside; weakened 5Amor SecretoRan 2ndM. Americano · G. VallejoAmericano · VallejoB41 65 66▼▼-25↕@trip 745-1Fair 9-218%
▼▼ Big drop -2541 65 66 ↕@trip 74B2Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–67 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 41 65 66
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Draw The Foul 9-2 · Trainer this race: Bako Country 9-2, R4: Cupid's Crusader 15-1, R4: Autism Puzzle 7-2, R4: What A Gift 12-1CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKComes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Cuts back from 6½ furlongs to 4½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (5F in :59.80), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 6½f T Clm 25k n2l 7th/7 -10L 41 63-1 L 3deep;tired turn;eased 9/12 LRC 1m D fsMd12500 Won/9 65 2.6-1 L Pace 2p;clear;held on 8/14 DMR 1m T fsMd50000 8th/9 -½L 66 54-1 L Met bids 2nd; weakened 6Rousing RhythmJ. Rodriguez · R. LucasRodriguez · LucasB81 67 61▲▲+16@trip 815-111%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best81 67 61@trip 81BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 67 61
Jockey Jose Elias Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R3: Elegant Munni 8-5 · Trainer this race: Readytoboard 7-2, this race: Lucky And Gone 9-5, R2: Legal Fiction 6-1Has moved up each time out, 61 to 67 to 81. Finished 5th in a 7-horse allowance race at LA, beaten 7 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)RECORD Jose Elias Rodriguez from post 6 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 28 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2l 5th/7 -7L 81 33-1 L Stalk 2w-ins;one paced 9/19 LA 4½f D MCL 3kc Won/5 67 0.4-1 L Duel 2w;cleared;held 8/28 DMR 5½f D fsMd50000 6th/8 -4½L 61 18-1 L Stalked;asked3w;wknd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #4 Lucky And Gone, won.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 1
OFFICIALClaiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 51.29
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Lucky And Gone (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 86 · 89 · 75. Backup is #5 Amor Secreto at 5-1. Use #1 Bako Country in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · WON
Top pick Lucky And Gone won
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, —
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #4 LUCKY AND GONE | 1st |
| #2 | #5 AMOR SECRETO | 2nd |
| #3 | #1 BAKO COUNTRY | — |
| #4 | #2 READYTOBOARD | 3rd |
| #5 | #3 SYNOPSIS | 4th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #4 Lucky and Gone | our #1 |
| 2nd | #5 Amor Secreto | our #2 |
| 3rd | #2 Readytoboard | our #4 |
| 4th | #3 Synopsis | our #5 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 LUCKY AND GONE (9-5) — our number agrees.
- #4 LUCKY AND GONE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 28.0%).
- #2 READYTOBOARD — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 17.4%).
- #5 AMOR SECRETO — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.7%, they've got 13.1%.
Model vs the morning line
- #5 AMOR SECRETO — we make it 15.7%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Bako Country, #2 Readytoboard, #3 Synopsis.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 EXACTA / $1 TRIFECTA
$1 SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM WAGER)
BET OPTIONS
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