Pick sheet

Race 28:38 PM Alw 14000n1ml

4.0F · Dirt · 5 entered. Our model's top pick, Om Sassy, is 37% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Om Sassy ML 8-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best ↕ Up and down 62–95

Jockey S. Vargas · Trainer S. Morfin · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	Won/6	95	8.3-1	b L	Sped clear;held safely
1/1	TUP	5½f D	OC 20k b	6th/7 -½L	63	5.1-1	b L	Hook both sides;bmpd
12/5	RP	5f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/7 -4L	74	0.9-1	b L	Rallied; 4w; no menace

Case: Last out won in the Alw14500n3l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 95-63-74. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Los Alamitos. S. Morfin / S. Vargas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Blessed Angel ML 9-5 Fair 9-5 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best ↕ Up and down 77–98 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey E. Payeras · Trainer V. Belvoir · KEE 5: 2-0-1 · Dist 6: 2-1-1 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	Won/6	98	2.4-1	b L	Came in;met bid;best
9/11	LRC	5½f D	Clm 16k	Won/7	77	4.1-1	b L	Vied2p;kick clear;held
8/9	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	4th/5 -3¼L	82	2.1-1	b L	Vied 3w;weaken turn

Case: Last out won in the fAlw14500n2ml at LA. Last Brisnet figures 98-77-82. 2-for-6 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Los Alamitos. V. Belvoir / E. Payeras.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Perfect Life ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 76–79 Last out won in the fClm8000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 79-76-77. J. Valdez / A. Aguilar. Knock: Never raced at Los Alamitos. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Aguilar · Trainer J. Valdez · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m D	Clm 8k	Won/5 by 2	79	3.3-1	L	Ins;reeled in foe late
8/23	DMR	6f D	Clm 8k	6th/8 -11L	76	3.0-1	L	2-4wide; no factor
8/1	DMR	5½f D	Clm 10k	6th/9 -5½L	77	9.6-1	L	Ins;swung1/4;late run

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #4 · B #1, #5

Angles: #4 Lone speed on early pace

R2 Los Alamitos · Allowance · $14,000 purse

8:38 PM ET · 870 Yards Dirt · $14,000 · 5 runners8:38 PM · 4.0f Dirt · 5 runners

Official $14K · Allowance · $14,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Legal FictionRan 5thC. Herrera · R. LucasHerrera · LucasB88 86 92▲+46-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +488 86 92B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 88 86 92

Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lucky And Gone 9-5 · Trainer R1: Readytoboard 7-2, R1: Lucky And Gone 9-5, R1: Rousing Rhythm 5-1

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. 5th last time, 3¼ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 172 days ago

RECORD Cristobal Herrera from post 1 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 26 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	5th/6 -3¼L	88	7.1-1	b L	Chased 2w; weakened
9/4	DMR	5f T	OC 50k n1x	6th/8 -5½L	86	85-1	b L	Inside;angled out uppr
8/22	LA	4.54545f D	Alw nc	Won/6 by 3	92	29-1	b L	Chase 2w;bid 3w;up

2Om SassyRan 1stS. Vargas · S. MorfinVargas · MorfinA95 63 74▲▲+29↕8-5Fair 9-537%▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best95 63 74 ↕A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–95 · Last 3 figs 95 63 74

Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Sergio Morfin 36% career ★ 5-for-20 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Kickingit 3-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at LA. Went to the front early last out.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 20; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 2 here: 4 wins, 19 top-3 in 45 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	Won/6	95	8.3-1	b L	Sped clear;held safely
1/1	TUP	5½f D	OC 20k b	6th/7 -½L	63	5.1-1	b L	Hook both sides;bmpd
12/5	RP	5f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/7 -4L	74	0.9-1	b L	Rallied; 4w; no menace

3Liquid SpiritRan 3rdA. Bautista · J. FariasBautista · FariasA87 94 75►@trip 764-1Fair 8-111%► Steady87 94 75@trip 76A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 94 75

Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Synopsis 9-2, R4: Perfecto Amor 8-1 · Trainer R7: Mr Lio 6-1, R7: Golden Mist 8-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 9/37 from post 3

Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. The Aug 29 work, 3F in :36.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 3 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 37 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k	4th/8 -2½L	87	2.2-1	b L	Chased ins; outkicked
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	2nd/6 -2L	94	14-1	b L	Chased ins;earned 2nd
9/12	LRC	5f D	Clm 6k	6th/10 -1½L	75	18-1	b L	Brk in/bpd;speed;yield

4Blessed Angel▲Ran 2ndE. Payeras · V. BelvoirPayeras · BelvoirA98 77 82▲▲+19↕9-5Fair 9-535%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best98 77 82 ↕A▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 77–98 · Last 3 figs 98 77 82

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 13-for-31 on dirt this meet (42%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Vann Belvoir 27% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Bako Country 9-2, R3: Smugglers Isle 5-1, R4: Autism Puzzle 7-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST2/3 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 95 next best. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse allowance race at LA at 2.4-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 11d back

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Edgar Payeras from post 4 here: 46 wins, 116 top-3 in 150 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	Won/6	98	2.4-1	b L	Came in;met bid;best
9/11	LRC	5½f D	Clm 16k	Won/7	77	4.1-1	b L	Vied2p;kick clear;held
8/9	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2ml	4th/5 -3¼L	82	2.1-1	b L	Vied 3w;weaken turn

5Perfect LifeRan 4thA. Aguilar · J. ValdezAguilar · ValdezB79 76 77▲+3≡5-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +379 76 77 ≡B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–79 · Last 3 figs 79 76 77

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jose R Valdez 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Baladi 2-1 · Trainer R4: Cathal 15-1

WON LAST

Class relief: $8,000 claiming last time, allowance today. Shortens up to 870 yards after going 1760 yards.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d back

RECORD Armando Aguilar from post 5 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 21 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	1m D	Clm 8k	Won/5 by 2	79	3.3-1	L	Ins;reeled in foe late
8/23	DMR	6f D	Clm 8k	6th/8 -11L	76	3.0-1	L	2-4wide; no factor
8/1	DMR	5½f D	Clm 10k	6th/9 -5½L	77	9.6-1	L	Ins;swung1/4;late run

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Om Sassy, won.

1st2Om SassyWin$6.40Place$2.80Show—Our #1

2nd4Blessed AngelWin—Place$2.10Show—Our #2

3rd3Liquid SpiritWin—Place—Show—Our #4

4th5Perfect LifeOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $14,000 purse

Field

5 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

8:38 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 37%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 870 Yards: 44.33

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Om Sassy (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 95 · 63 · 74. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Blessed Angel at 9-5. Use #5 Perfect Life in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Om Sassy won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 OM SASSY	1st
#2	#4 BLESSED ANGEL	2nd
#3	#5 PERFECT LIFE	4th
#4	#3 LIQUID SPIRIT	3rd
#5	#1 LEGAL FICTION	5th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Om Sassy	our #1
2nd	#4 Blessed Angel	our #2
3rd	#3 Liquid Spirit	our #4
4th	#5 Perfect Life	our #3
5th	#1 Legal Fiction	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 OM SASSY (8-5) — our number agrees.
#2 OM SASSY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.0% to their 30.7%).
#4 BLESSED ANGEL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (30.5% to their 28.5%).
#3 LIQUID SPIRIT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 16.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Legal Fiction, #2 Om Sassy, #3 Liquid Spirit.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

5Perfect Life731Legal Fiction2Om Sassy3Liquid Spirit4Blessed Angel

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Perfect Life

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Perfect Life

Legal Fiction

Om Sassy

Liquid Spirit

Blessed Angel

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