Pick sheet

Race 39:06 PM Md Sp Wt

4.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Elegant Munni, is 45% to win (morning line implies 34%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Elegant Munni ML 8-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1

Jockey J. Rodriguez · Trainer A. Aquino · 121 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/3	LRC	5f D	MCL 30k	2nd/6 -2½L	64	4.0-1	b	Saved ground; 2nd best

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd30000 at LRC. Last Brisnet figures 64. A. Aquino / J. Rodriguez.

Knock: Off 121 days. Never raced at Los Alamitos.

Contender #2 Kickingit ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best ★ Best at 4.54545f dirt: 70 ↕ Up and down 40–70

Jockey S. Vargas · Trainer F. Gonzalez · KEE 2: 0-2-0 · Dist 2: 0-2-0 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 70 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	2nd/6 -5½L	70	2.4-1	b	Stalk insde;up 2nd ins
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	2nd/8 -4¼L	65	5.7-1	b	Bpd st;3w;willingly
9/11	LRC	5f D	sMd20000	9th/9 -10L	45	66-1	b	Stalked inside; faded

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 70-65-45. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Los Alamitos. F. Gonzalez / S. Vargas.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #3 Please Behave ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 5th/8 -3¾L in the MdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 60-50-68. Best at today's distance 60. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. F. Gonzalez / H. Lopez. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey H. Lopez · Trainer F. Gonzalez · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 60 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	5th/8 -3¾L	60	1.0-1	b	Off duo 2p;lacked kick
8/9	DMR	5f D	fsMd20000	7th/10 -13L	50	9.0-1	b	Threw hd/off slw;climb
7/23	DMR	5f D	fsMd50000	5th/9 -4L	68	11-1	b	Chased ins; churned on

Longshot #6 Endee ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4

Jockey C. Ortega · Trainer J. Hernandez Jr. · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 68 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	3rd/6 -2L	68	26-1	b	Off slw;ins;outkick 2d
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	8th/8 -7¼L	53	23-1	b	Came in;swerved early

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 68-53. Best at today's distance 68. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Los Alamitos. J. Hernandez Jr. / C. Ortega.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #5 · B #1, #3, #6 · ? #7, #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R3 Los Alamitos · Maiden Special Weight

9:06 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $14,000 · 7 runners (1 out)9:06 PM · 4½f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $14K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Just GuapoRan 7thD. Cruz · J. AguilarCruz · AguilarB2420-1Fair 50-12%—24B
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 24
Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Juan R Aguilar 17% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Cathal 15-1, R7: Faith Eagle 6-1
60D LAYOFFJky 8/51 from post 1
Class relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden special weight today. Last out was 10th, 23 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at DMR.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 16d ago
RECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 1 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 51 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/23 DMR 5f D sMd20000 10th/10 -23L 24 54-1 b Stp slw;hard2ride erly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	DMR	5f D	sMd20000	10th/10 -23L	24	54-1	b	Stp slw;hard2ride erly

2Kickingit★Ran 1stS. Vargas · F. GonzalezVargas · GonzalezA70 65 45▲▲+20↕@trip 703-1Fair 4-120%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best70 65 45 ↕@trip 70A★ Best at the trip 702

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 65 45

★ Best at the trip 70

Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Felix L Gonzalez 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Om Sassy 8-5 · Trainer this race: Please Behave 5-1, R7: Faith Eagle 6-1, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 70. Figures are climbing: 45, 65, 70 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago

RECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 2 here: 4 wins, 19 top-3 in 45 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	2nd/6 -5½L	70	2.4-1	b	Stalk insde;up 2nd ins
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	2nd/8 -4¼L	65	5.7-1	b	Bpd st;3w;willingly
9/11	LRC	5f D	sMd20000	9th/9 -10L	45	66-1	b	Stalked inside; faded

3Please BehaveRan 2ndH. Lopez · F. GonzalezLopez · GonzalezB60 50 68►@trip 605-1Fair 6-114%► Steady60 50 68@trip 60B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 50 68

Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Felix L Gonzalez 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Favorite Daytona 7-2, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R7: Mathilde 9-2, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1 · Trainer this race: Kickingit 3-1, R7: Faith Eagle 6-1, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1

Beaten 3¾ lengths for 5th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at LA. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Sep 11, 3rd of 18 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 3 here: 17 wins, 58 top-3 in 159 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	5th/8 -3¾L	60	1.0-1	b	Off duo 2p;lacked kick
8/9	DMR	5f D	fsMd20000	7th/10 -13L	50	9.0-1	b	Threw hd/off slw;climb
7/23	DMR	5f D	fsMd50000	5th/9 -4L	68	11-1	b	Chased ins; churned on

4Elegant MunniRan 3rdJ. Rodriguez · A. AquinoRodriguez · AquinoA648-5Fair 6-545%—64A1
Card model 45% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 64
Jockey Jose Elias Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career ★ 8-for-28 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Rousing Rhythm 5-1
60D LAYOFF
Returns from a 121-day break, the biggest in the field. Changes barns, from George L Lopez to Angela M Aquino.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 23d ago)
RECORD Jose Elias Rodriguez from post 4 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 16 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/3 LRC 5f D MCL 30k 2nd/6 -2½L 64 4.0-1 b Saved ground; 2nd best
5Social GeniusRan 5thF. Orduna-Rojas · C. TreeceOrduna-Rojas · TreeceA65 63@trip 658-1Fair 15-17%—65 63@trip 65A
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 65 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 63
Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Charles S Treece 24% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Raced in mid-pack early, 3rd at the first call. Finished 4th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LA, beaten 2½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)
RECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 5 here: 11 wins, 41 top-3 in 69 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 LA 4.54545f D MSW 4th/6 -2½L 65 4.8-1 b Floated early;2w;nobid
10/4 LA 4.54545f D MSW 3rd/8 -4¼L 63 49-1 b Stalked 2w;up 3rd late
6EndeeLSRan 4thC. Ortega · J. Hernandez Jr.Ortega · Hernandez Jr.B68 53@trip 688-1Fair 8-110%—68 53@trip 68BLS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 53
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Cesar Ortega 26% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jose Jr Hernandez 31% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R8: Solve It 10-1 · Trainer this race: Go Holiday 15-1
3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
RECORD Cesar Ortega from post 6 here: 17 wins, 51 top-3 in 99 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 LA 4.54545f D MSW 3rd/6 -2L 68 26-1 b Off slw;ins;outkick 2d
10/4 LA 4.54545f D MSW 8th/8 -7¼L 53 23-1 b Came in;swerved early
7Smugglers IsleE. Payeras · C. DollasePayeras · Dollase?5-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 13-for-31 on dirt this meet (42%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Craig Dollase 29% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Bako Country 9-2, R2: Blessed Angel 9-5, R4: Autism Puzzle 7-2 · Trainer R4: Baladi 2-1
Debut for this Breakers Isle gelding, whose dam is Victoria Falls. First-time starter from a barn that wins 0% of the time with them (21 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago
RECORD Edgar Payeras from post 7 here: 14 wins, 39 top-3 in 70 rides · 27% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Breakers Isle out of Victoria Falls (Quality Road)
Trainer C. Dollase: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 19% in the money (21 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 29% in the money (49 starts)
Jockey E. Payeras in sprints: 38 wins from 210 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 SA 4f :49.60 handily 11/20
10/15 SA 3f :36.60 handily 3/9
10/5 SA 2f :24.80 handily 8/13
9/25 SA 2f :25.40 handily 2/3
9/18 SA 1f :12.60 handily 1/2 ● bullet
8Go HolidayRan 6thP. Flores · J. Hernandez Jr.Flores · Hernandez Jr.?15-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey P Flores 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jose Jr Hernandez 31% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Readytoboard 7-2 · Trainer this race: Endee 8-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 17). First career start, by Halladay out of Go Greta.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 15d ago
Last three races
First start. By Halladay out of Go Greta (Bated Breath)
Trainer J. Hernandez Jr.: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 12% in the money (17 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 16% in the money (25 starts)
Jockey P. Flores in sprints: 5 wins from 91 (5%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/17 LA 4f :49.20 handily 8/21 from gate
10/10 LA 4f :49.20 handily 18/32
10/3 LA 4f :49.40 handily 5/8
9/27 LA 4f :50.00 handily 16/25
9/20 LA 3f :37.40 handily 2/5

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	4th/6 -2½L	65	4.8-1	b	Floated early;2w;nobid
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	MSW	3rd/8 -4¼L	63	49-1	b	Stalked 2w;up 3rd late

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	SA	4f	:49.60	handily	11/20
10/15	SA	3f	:36.60	handily	3/9
10/5	SA	2f	:24.80	handily	8/13
9/25	SA	2f	:25.40	handily	2/3
9/18	SA	1f	:12.60	handily	1/2	● bullet

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	LA	4f	:49.20	handily	8/21	from gate
10/10	LA	4f	:49.20	handily	18/32
10/3	LA	4f	:49.40	handily	5/8
9/27	LA	4f	:50.00	handily	16/25
9/20	LA	3f	:37.40	handily	2/5

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Elegant Munni, finished 3rd.

1st2KickingitWin$7.40Place$4.00Show$2.60Our #2

2nd3Please BehaveWin—Place$4.40Show$3.00Our #3

3rd4Elegant MunniWin—Place—Show$2.20Our #1

4th6EndeeOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

9:06 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 45%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 51.29

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Elegant Munni (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 64. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Kickingit at 3-1. Use #3 Please Behave in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Elegant Munni ran 3rd · Kickingit won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 ELEGANT MUNNI	3rd
#2	#2 KICKINGIT	1st
#3	#3 PLEASE BEHAVE	2nd
#4	#6 ENDEE	4th
#5	#5 SOCIAL GENIUS	5th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Kickingit	our #2
2nd	#3 Please Behave	our #3
3rd	#4 Elegant Munni	our #1
4th	#6 Endee	our #4
5th	#5 Social Genius	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 ELEGANT MUNNI (8-5) — our number agrees.
#4 ELEGANT MUNNI — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 36.0%, they've got 29.6%.
#2 KICKINGIT — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.7%, they've got 19.2%.
#3 PLEASE BEHAVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 12.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 ELEGANT MUNNI — we make it 36.0%, the morning line works out to 29.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 KICKINGIT — we make it 22.7%, the morning line works out to 19.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 ENDEE (8-1) — our fair 10.1% is above the morning line's 8.5%; supported by: sire Take Charge Indy wins 18% at sprint/dirt (n=1272); lightly raced — breeding fits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Just Guapo, #2 Kickingit, #3 Please Behave.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

4Elegant Munni841Just Guapo592Kickingit3Please Behave5Social Genius6Endee7Smugglers Isle8Go Holiday

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Elegant Munni

Just Guapo

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Just Guapo

Elegant Munni

Kickingit

Please Behave

Social Genius

Endee

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