| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | LA | 4.54545f D | Alw nc | 4th/6 -5½L | 95 | 11-1 | b L | Fracts/rear;2w;kept on |
| 10/2 | SA | 5½f D | Clm 8k | 4th/8 | 86 | 28-1 | b L | Vie inside;clear;flatn |
| 8/30 | EMD | 6½f D | Clm 15k | 4th/7 -4¼L | 74 | 2.6-1 | b L | Broke in air; rallied |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19 | LRC | 5f D | Clm 6k | 6th/8 -3½L | 70 | 1.5-1 | L | Pace2p;yielded upper |
| 9/12 | LRC | 5½f D | Clm 10k | 6th/7 -4½L | 64 | 4.6-1 | L | Showed speed;faded |
| 6/21 | LRC | 5f D | Clm 12k n1y | Won/7 | 86 | 5.7-1 | L | Drifted 4wd;shook free |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22 | LA | 4.54545f D | Clm 8k | Won/5 | 96 | 1.6-1 | b L | Vie 3w;shook clr;best |
| 8/2 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 3k c | Won/8 by 3½ | 73 | 3.1-1 | b L | 2w;3w;bid4w;surge;up |
| 5/9 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k | 2nd/7 by hd | 72 | 0.8-1 | b L | Duel ins;led;caught |
1CathalD. Cruz · J. ValdezCruz · ValdezC80 76 84▲+315-1<1%
▲ Up +380 76 84CCard model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 80 76 84
Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jose R Valdez 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKJky 8/51 from post 1A big drop, allowance to $8,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.40 on Oct 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 1 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 51 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 1⅛m T Alw s 2nd/7 -2L 80 10-1 b L Ins;2w/btwn;willingly 9/13 LRC 5½f D Alw s 5th/6 -9½L 76 13-1 b L 3-2w;mvd out;no threat 8/29 DMR 1m T Alw s 3rd/8 -2½L 84 21-1 b L Waitd2w;tip out;evenly 2Draw the FoulRan 7thM. Americano · J. GilmourAmericano · GilmourC65 78 72▼-79-2Fair 10-110%
▼ Down -765 78 72CCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 65 78 72
3 wins from 4 starts at this distance. A step up in company: allowance before, $8,000 claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 107 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GRP 6f D Alw n1y 5th/8 -3½L 65 9.4-1 L Stalked 3w;weakened 9/20 GRP 5f D Alw b 2nd/8 -1L 78 4.2-1 L Bid 2w;outkckd;easy 2d 8/29 EMD 6½f D Clm 5k 3rd/7 72 4.4-1 L Set pace; held gamely 3Cupid's Crusader▼Ran 5thA. Castellanos · G. VallejoCastellanos · VallejoB89 70 68▲▲+17↕@trip 8915-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best89 70 68 ↕@trip 89B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 70 68
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Trainer R1: Bako Country 9-2, R1: Amor Secreto 5-1, this race: Autism Puzzle 7-2, this race: What A Gift 12-1★ FASTEST WORKFigures are climbing: 68, 70, 89 over its last three. Last out was 5th, 6 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at LA.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 27; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 LA 4.54545f D Alw n1ml 5th/6 -6L 89 17-1 b L 2w; no impact 3path 10/12 SA 1m D Clm 5k 5th/7 -8L 70 4.3-1 b L 4wd;3-4wd;weakened 8/16 DMR 1m D Clm 8k 7th/9 -10L 68 6.6-1 b L Chased 4-5wide; empty 4Autism PuzzleRan 3rdE. Payeras · G. VallejoPayeras · VallejoA96 73 72▲▲+23↕@trip 967-2Fair 4-120%
▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best96 73 72 ↕@trip 96A3Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 73 72
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 13-for-31 on dirt this meet (42%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Bako Country 9-2, R2: Blessed Angel 9-5, R3: Smugglers Isle 5-1 · Trainer R1: Bako Country 9-2, R1: Amor Secreto 5-1, this race: Cupid's Crusader 15-1, this race: What A Gift 12-160D LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST5/7 board hereTops the field on speed figures, a 96 against 95 for the next best. Won last out in a 5-horse $8,000 claiming race at LA.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.60 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dRECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Edgar Payeras from post 4 here: 46 wins, 116 top-3 in 150 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 LA 4.54545f D Clm 8k Won/5 96 1.6-1 b L Vie 3w;shook clr;best 8/2 LA 4½f D Clm 3k c Won/8 by 3½ 73 3.1-1 b L 2w;3w;bid4w;surge;up 5/9 LA 4½f D Clm 5k 2nd/7 by hd 72 0.8-1 b L Duel ins;led;caught 5Perfecto Amor▼Ran 1stA. Bautista · A. FariasBautista · FariasB76 82 68▲+3@trip 928-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +376 82 68@trip 92B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 68
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Adan Farias 30% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 32WON LAST5/9 board hereWinner of a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at LA last time. Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $8,000 claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 65 days agoRECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 5 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 26 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LA 4½f D Clm 5k Won/6 by 1½ 76 3.9-1 b L 2-3w;bid; drove past 9/19 LRC 5f D Clm 6k 2nd/8 -3L 82 26-1 b L 3w;angled5w into str 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 6k 7th/8 -7¾L 68 16-1 b L Ins;shuffled7/16;tip3w 6Black MagicianRan 6thR. Ramirez · J. UrangaRamirez · UrangaA70 64 86▼▼-12↕@trip 967-2Fair 4-121%
▼▼ Big drop -1270 64 86 ↕@trip 96A2Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–95 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 64 86
Jockey Ricardo S Ramirez 33% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hotCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK7/10 board hereOwns the highest recent figure here at 96. Has won 11 of 26 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 72d back)RECORD 5 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Ricardo S Ramirez from post 6 here: 47 wins, 107 top-3 in 185 rides · 20% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LRC 5f D Clm 6k 6th/8 -3½L 70 1.5-1 L Pace2p;yielded upper 9/12 LRC 5½f D Clm 10k 6th/7 -4½L 64 4.6-1 L Showed speed;faded 6/21 LRC 5f D Clm 12k n1y Won/7 86 5.7-1 L Drifted 4wd;shook free 7BaladiRan 2ndA. Aguilar · C. DollaseAguilar · DollaseA95 86 74▲▲+15@trip 952-1Fair 2-131%
▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best95 86 74@trip 95A1Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 95 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 86 74
Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Craig Dollase 29% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet2/4 board hereTurns back in 7 days. Has moved up each time out, 74 to 86 to 95.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d backRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 LA 4.54545f D Alw nc 4th/6 -5½L 95 11-1 b L Fracts/rear;2w;kept on 10/2 SA 5½f D Clm 8k 4th/8 86 28-1 b L Vie inside;clear;flatn 8/30 EMD 6½f D Clm 15k 4th/7 -4¼L 74 2.6-1 b L Broke in air; rallied 8What a GiftRan 4thP. Castillo · G. VallejoCastillo · VallejoB86 77 78▲▲+8≡@trip 8612-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best86 77 78 ≡@trip 86BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 77 78
Also today · Trainer R1: Bako Country 9-2, R1: Amor Secreto 5-1, this race: Cupid's Crusader 15-1, this race: Autism Puzzle 7-2★ FASTEST WORKDropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Aug 29, in 1:00.20.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Rough st; improvd 4p last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 29; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 LA 4.54545f D Alw n1ml 4th/6 -6½L 86 17-1 L Rough st;improvd 4p 7/30 DMR 1m D Clm 16k n3l 6th/9 -6¾L 77 34-1 L Ins-2wd;2-4wd;ran on 7/3 LRC 1m D Clm 6k n3lc 4th/7 -6½L 78 2.5-1 L Wide trip; weakened
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #7 Baladi, finished 2nd.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 4
OFFICIALClaiming $8,000
Claiming $8,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 51.29
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 Baladi (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 95 · 86 · 74. Backup is #6 Black Magician at 7-2. Use #4 Autism Puzzle in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · 2ND
Top pick Baladi ran 2nd · Perfecto Amor won (our #5)
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 6th, 3rd
What didn't
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #7 BALADI | 2nd |
| #2 | #6 BLACK MAGICIAN | 6th |
| #3 | #4 AUTISM PUZZLE | 3rd |
| #4 | #2 DRAW THE FOUL | 7th |
| #5 | #5 PERFECTO AMOR | 1st |
Actual finish
| 1st | #5 Perfecto Amor | our #5 |
| 2nd | #7 Baladi | our #1 |
| 3rd | #4 Autism Puzzle | our #3 |
| 4th | #8 What a Gift | our #6 |
| 5th | #3 Cupid's Crusader | our #7 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 BALADI (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #7 BALADI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.0% to their 26.2%).
- #6 BLACK MAGICIAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 17.5%).
- #4 AUTISM PUZZLE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 17.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Cathal, #2 Draw The Foul, #3 Cupid's Crusader.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 EXACTA / $1 TRIFECTA
$1 SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM WAGER)
BET OPTIONS
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