Pick sheet

Race 710:58 PM Clm 12500n2l

1.4F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Ap Royal Sweet, is 47% to win (morning line implies 36%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Ap Royal Sweet ML 6-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best

Jockey A. Cervantes · Trainer J. Flores · KEE 5: 1-2-0 · Dist 5: 1-2-0 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 81 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/5 by nk	81	1.0-1	b	Shied 1/8; 2nd best
8/29	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 16k	Won/5	79	1.1-1	b	Fracts;alertly;best
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	5th/7 -3L	61	4.4-1	b	Fractious; off slow

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm12500n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 81-79-61. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Los Alamitos. J. Flores / A. Cervantes.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Luna Sofia ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -5

Jockey G. Lara · Trainer F. Rodriguez · KEE 7: 1-3-0 · Dist 7: 1-3-0 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 78 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 16k n2l	4th/5 -1½L	75	1.2-1	b	Awkward step early
8/16	LA	1.59091f D	CLS	Won/7	85	7.7-1	b	Away well; won bob
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	2nd/7 by hd	76	5.3-1	b	Drifted in/out;held 2d

Case: Last out 4th/5 -1½L in the Clm16000n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 75-85-76. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Los Alamitos. F. Rodriguez / G. Lara.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #2 Mr Lio ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 Last out 3rd in the Clm12500n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 73-73-77. Best at today's distance 77. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Los Alamitos. J. Farias / J. Klaiber. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey J. Klaiber · Trainer J. Farias · KEE 7: 1-1-2 · Dist 7: 1-1-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 77 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/5 -1L	73	8.0-1	b	Shied 1/8; best rest
9/20	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 16k n2l	5th/5 -1½L	73	8.3-1	b	Lacked rally outside
9/6	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/6 -1½L	77	6.1-1	b	Ftg;brk in;earned 3rd

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #6 · B #3, #4, #5

R7 Los Alamitos · Claiming $12,500

10:58 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $10,255 · 6 runners10:58 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $10K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Luna SofiaG. Lara · F. RodriguezLara · RodriguezA75 85 76▼-5@trip 787-2Fair 9-218%▼ Down -575 85 76@trip 78A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 85 76

Jockey Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Francisco Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Gorgeous Guy 15-1

4/7 board here

Changes barns, from Jesus Nunez to Francisco Rodriguez. Owns the highest recent figure here at 85.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Awkward step early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 235d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara from post 1 here: 14 wins, 52 top-3 in 118 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 16k n2l	4th/5 -1½L	75	1.2-1	b	Awkward step early
8/16	LA	1.59091f D	CLS	Won/7	85	7.7-1	b	Away well; won bob
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	2nd/7 by hd	76	5.3-1	b	Drifted in/out;held 2d

2Mr LioJ. Klaiber · J. FariasKlaiber · FariasA73 73 77▲+3@trip 776-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +373 73 77@trip 77A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 73 77

Jockey Justine Klaiber 37% career 7-for-44 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Liquid Spirit 4-1, this race: Golden Mist 8-1

4/7 board here

Last out was 3rd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at LA. Worked 1F in :12.40 on Mar 11, 2nd of 43 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 80d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Justine Klaiber from post 2 here: 7 wins, 25 top-3 in 54 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/5 -1L	73	8.0-1	b	Shied 1/8; best rest
9/20	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 16k n2l	5th/5 -1½L	73	8.3-1	b	Lacked rally outside
9/6	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/6 -1½L	77	6.1-1	b	Ftg;brk in;earned 3rd

3MathildeH. Lopez · J. GomezLopez · GomezB69 66 66▲+3@trip 699-2Fair 8-110%▲ Up +3 · career best69 66 66@trip 69B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 66 66

Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Jaime H Gomez 28% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Please Behave 5-1, R5: Favorite Daytona 7-2, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1 · Trainer R5: Favorite Daytona 7-2

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST

Freshened 141 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. A step up in company: maiden claiming $10,000 before, $12,500 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 3 here: 17 wins, 58 top-3 in 159 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	Won/6 by hd	69	2.9-1	b	Brk out;duel;wonbob
5/16	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 16k	4th/7 -1L	66	6.1-1	b	Even effort
4/25	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	6th/8 -2½L	66	21-1	b	Lackd needed response

4Golden MistR. Aceves · J. FariasAceves · FariasB33 76 62▼▼-40↕@trip 818-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -4033 76 62 ↕@trip 81B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -40 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 33 76 62

Jockey R Aceves 26% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Levi Gift 3-1, R6: Gambling Cowboy 7-2 · Trainer R2: Liquid Spirit 4-1, this race: Mr Lio 6-1

Jky 9/46 from post 4

New trainer: Paul C Jones had it last time, Jorge Farias now. Beaten 4½ lengths for 5th in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 183d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD R Aceves from post 4 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/5 -4½L	33	4.5-1	b	Lost all chance start
9/6	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	4th/6 -2½L	76	3.6-1	b	Best stride late
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	7th/7 -2¼L	62	4.4-1	b	Off slow; no threat

5Faith EagleD. Cruz · F. GonzalezCruz · GonzalezB65 78 66▼-5@trip 786-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -565 78 66@trip 78B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 78 66

Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Felix L Gonzalez 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Just Guapo 20-1, R4: Cathal 15-1 · Trainer R3: Kickingit 3-1, R3: Please Behave 5-1, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

4th last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 5.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 190d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 61 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	4th/5 -2½L	65	13-1	Came in;slw to gather
9/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	Won/6	78	12-1	Avoided trouble; held
8/9	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 8k	3rd/6 -1¾L	66	6.1-1	Antsy;bpd/pushed in

6Ap Royal SweetA. Cervantes · J. FloresCervantes · FloresA81 79 61▲▲+8@trip 816-5Fair 6-547%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best81 79 61@trip 81A1

Card model 47% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 61

Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Call Me Champion 7-2, R8: Patrick Jane 10-1 · Trainer R5: Call Me Champion 7-2, R5: Call Me Soft 6-1, R5: The Zion King 10-1, R6: Eclipses 9-5 +1 more

3/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 61 to 79 to 81. 3rd of 6 at 1F on Apr 29, in :12.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 186d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 6 here: 11 wins, 37 top-3 in 72 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/5 by nk	81	1.0-1	b	Shied 1/8; 2nd best
8/29	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 16k	Won/5	79	1.1-1	b	Fracts;alertly;best
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	5th/7 -3L	61	4.4-1	b	Fractious; off slow

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Claiming $12,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$10,255

Post

10:58 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 47%

Claiming $12,500, for 2-year-olds, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 14.86

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Ap Royal Sweet (a tactical type, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 81 · 79 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Luna Sofia at 7-2. Use #2 Mr Lio in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 AP ROYAL SWEET (6-5) — our number agrees.
#6 AP ROYAL SWEET — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.0% to their 36.2%).
#1 LUNA SOFIA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.6% to their 17.7%).
#3 MATHILDE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Luna Sofia, #2 Mr Lio, #3 Mathilde.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Luna Sofia2Mr Lio3Mathilde4Golden Mist5Faith Eagle6Ap Royal Sweet

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mathilde

Mr Lio

Golden Mist

Faith Eagle

Ap Royal Sweet

Luna Sofia

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