Pick sheet

Race 811:26 PM Md Sp Wt

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Texas Cowgirl 123, is 30% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Texas Cowgirl 123 ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 · career best ≡ Steady 73–81

Jockey A. Viramontes · Trainer L. Diaz · KEE 8: 0-2-2 · Dist 8: 0-2-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 78 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/7 -¾L	81	62-1	b	Away well; outfinished
8/29	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/7 -¾L	73	2.5-1	b	Brk in/bp hard st;lug
8/8	LA	1.59091f D	LAJuvChall45k	3rd/10 -1L	78	4.3-1	b	Solid effort inside

Case: Last out 4th/7 -¾L in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 81-73-78. Best at today's distance 78. 0-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-8 at Los Alamitos. L. Diaz / A. Viramontes.

Knock: 0-for-8 at the distance.

Contender #5 Treasured Empire ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey G. Vera · Trainer M. Rodriguez · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-2 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/8 -½L	79	12-1	b	Alertly;lug out1/8;wkn
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 -2L	85	28-1	b L	Good try;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/8 -3L	69	6.2-1	b L	No threat

Case: Last out 3rd in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 79-85-69. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. M. Rodriguez / G. Vera.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 Revenant Jess ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 78–83 Last out 4th/8 -½L in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 78-80-83. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. J. Gonzales / J. Belloc Jr.. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Belloc Jr. · Trainer J. Gonzales · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 79 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/8 -½L	78	20-1	b	Steady effort inside
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	9th/9 -4L	80	5.8-1	b L	Outrun;
7/11	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	5th/10 -1¼L	83	4.8-1	b L	Bid; gave way

Longshot #1 Solve It ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5

Jockey C. Ortega · Trainer J. Glenn Jr. · Debut

First start. By Golden Boi out of Tough to Figure (Walk Thru Fire)

Trainer J. Glenn Jr.: 1st-time starters: 30% wins, 40% in the money (10 starts) · 2-year-olds: 20% wins, 40% in the money (5 starts)

Jockey C. Ortega in sprints: 7 wins from 89 (8%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/10	LA	1f	:12.40	handily	2/12	from gate
9/5	LA	1f	:12.80	handily	8/12	from gate

Case: First career start. J. Glenn Jr. / C. Ortega.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #7 · B #2, #6, #8 · C #4 · ? #1 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R8 Los Alamitos · Maiden Special Weight

11:26 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 8 runners11:26 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $10K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Solve ItLSC. Ortega · J. Glenn Jr.Ortega · Glenn Jr.?10-1Fair 10-19%—Debut?LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Cesar Ortega 26% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer James W Jr Glenn 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Endee 8-1
Debut for this Golden Boi gelding, whose dam is Tough To Figure. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago
RECORD Cesar Ortega from post 1 here: 12 wins, 55 top-3 in 104 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Golden Boi out of Tough to Figure (Walk Thru Fire)
Trainer J. Glenn Jr.: 1st-time starters: 30% wins, 40% in the money (10 starts) · 2-year-olds: 20% wins, 40% in the money (5 starts)
Jockey C. Ortega in sprints: 7 wins from 89 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/10 LA 1f :12.40 handily 2/12 from gate
9/5 LA 1f :12.80 handily 8/12 from gate
2Come and Get ItC. Ochoa · D. CervantesOchoa · CervantesB77 83 71▲+4@trip 7112-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +477 83 71@trip 71B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 71
Jockey Cristofer Ochoa 26% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Diego Cervantes 27% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Chica Chula 9-2
Last out was 3rd, a neck behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at LA. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 158d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 LA 1.36364f D MSW 3rd/7 by nk 77 2.9-1 b Steady effort
9/5 LA 1f D MSW 5th/7 -1L 83 19-1 b Broke in; evenly
8/9 LA 1.59091f D MSW 4th/6 -1L 71 9.7-1 b Even effort inside

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/7 by nk	77	2.9-1	b	Steady effort
9/5	LA	1f D	MSW	5th/7 -1L	83	19-1	b	Broke in; evenly
8/9	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/6 -1L	71	9.7-1	b	Even effort inside

3Wynn in DoubtJ. Ayala · C. O'DellAyala · O'DellA78 88 70►@trip 885-1Fair 6-115%► Steady78 88 70@trip 88A

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 88 70

Jockey Jesus Rios Ayala 29% career ★ 6-for-25 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Christopher G O'Dell 28% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 32

Also today · Jockey R5: Locked In 5-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 148d ago)

RECORD Jesus Rios Ayala from post 3 here: 8 wins, 37 top-3 in 86 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/7 by hd	78	2.7-1	b	Brk in;duel;2nd best
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 -1L	88	9.1-1	b LB	Tight btw;fought on
7/19	POD	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/5 by nk	70	0.7-1	b LB	Bothered mid game thir

4Mr Jack VenturaH. Lopez · F. GonzalezLopez · GonzalezC70 78 70▼-415-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -470 78 70C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 70 78 70
Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Felix L Gonzalez 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Please Behave 5-1, R5: Favorite Daytona 7-2, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R7: Mathilde 9-2 · Trainer R3: Kickingit 3-1, R3: Please Behave 5-1, R7: Faith Eagle 6-1
0/3 board here
Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now. Henry Reynoso Lopez takes over from Armando Viramontes in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Brush st; no menace last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 42d back
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 4 here: 27 wins, 69 top-3 in 149 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LA 1.81818f D FutTrl6000 5th/6 -1¾L 70 29-1 b Brush st; no menace
9/12 LA 1.36364f D MSW 5th/6 -2L 78 27-1 b Shifted out/bpd st;wkn
8/29 LA 1f D MSW 5th/7 -1¾L 70 18-1 Lacked response

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	5th/6 -1¾L	70	29-1	b	Brush st; no menace
9/12	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/6 -2L	78	27-1	b	Shifted out/bpd st;wkn
8/29	LA	1f D	MSW	5th/7 -1¾L	70	18-1		Lacked response

5Treasured EmpireG. Vera · M. RodriguezVera · RodriguezA79 85 69►3-1Fair 5-117%► Steady79 85 69A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 79 85 69

Jockey Gerardo Vera 26% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

A step up in company: stakes before, maiden special weight today. Gets a new rider, Gerardo Vera replacing Luis Martinez.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 47d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/8 -½L	79	12-1	b	Alertly;lug out1/8;wkn
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 -2L	85	28-1	b L	Good try;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/8 -3L	69	6.2-1	b L	No threat

6Revenant JessJ. Belloc Jr. · J. GonzalesBelloc Jr. · GonzalesB78 80 83▼-3≡@trip 797-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -378 80 83 ≡@trip 79B3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 78–83 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 80 83
Jockey Joseph Jr Belloc 20% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
★ FASTEST WORK
Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.20 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LA 1.81818f D FutTrl6000 4th/8 -½L 78 20-1 b Steady effort inside
8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 9th/9 -4L 80 5.8-1 b L Outrun;
7/11 ALB 1.81818f D MSW 5th/10 -1¼L 83 4.8-1 b L Bid; gave way

7Texas Cowgirl 123A. Viramontes · L. DiazViramontes · DiazA81 73 78▲+5≡@trip 782-1Fair 5-230%▲ Up +5 · career best81 73 78 ≡@trip 78A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 73–81 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 73 78

Jockey Armando Viramontes 25% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Lindolfo Diaz 26% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Mw Bcause Im Twisted 5-2

4/8 board here

Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 235d back

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Armando Viramontes from post 7 here: 4 wins, 15 top-3 in 47 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	4th/7 -¾L	81	62-1	b	Away well; outfinished
8/29	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/7 -¾L	73	2.5-1	b	Brk in/bp hard st;lug
8/8	LA	1.59091f D	LAJuvChall45k	3rd/10 -1L	78	4.3-1	b	Solid effort inside

8Patrick JaneA. Cervantes · J. StinebaughCervantes · StinebaughB64 80 79▼▼-15@trip 7810-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1564 80 79@trip 78B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 80 79

Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Call Me Champion 7-2, R7: Ap Royal Sweet 6-5

Jky 11/33 from post 8

2nd of 10 at 1F on May 23, in :12.00. Jockey switch: Ali Rivera last out, Armando R Cervantes today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 46d ago)

RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 8 here: 11 wins, 19 top-3 in 33 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	8th/8 -3½L	64	35-1	b	Brk in/bpd st;outrun
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/9 -1¼L	80	5.9-1	b L	Too far;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1½L	79	33-1	b L	Steady effort;held 3rd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

11:26 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 30%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Texas Cowgirl 123 (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 81 · 73 · 78. Backup is #5 Treasured Empire at 3-1. Use #6 Revenant Jess in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 TEXAS COWGIRL 123 (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 TEXAS COWGIRL 123 — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 25.8%).
#5 TREASURED EMPIRE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.6% to their 19.3%).
#6 REVENANT JESS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Solve It, #2 Come And Get It, #3 Wynn In Doubt.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Solve It2Come And Get It3Wynn In Doubt4Mr Jack Ventura5Treasured Empire6Revenant Jess7Texas Cowgirl 1238Patrick Jane

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Come And Get It

Wynn In Doubt

Mr Jack Ventura

Treasured Empire

Revenant Jess

Texas Cowgirl 123

Patrick Jane

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