Pick sheet

Race 510:02 PM Alw 13600n2lLate Pick 4 starts

1.6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Locked in, is 25% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Locked in ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady Lasix off

Jockey J. Ayala · Trainer J. Giles · Dist 3: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 80 · 85 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¼L	83	5.4-1	b L	No rally;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	83	2.7-1	b L	Bore out; held well
5/22	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -2¾L	80	8.5-1	b L	Fractious loading

Case: Last out 6th/10 -2¼L in the FutTrl10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 83-83-80. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-3 at the distance. J. Giles / J. Ayala.

Knock: Off 85 days. Never raced at Los Alamitos.

Contender #3 Call Me Champion ML 7-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -5

Jockey A. Cervantes · Trainer J. Flores · KEE 4: 1-1-2 · Dist 4: 1-1-2 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/6 -1¼L	81	1.0-1	b	Lug out;drifted;luggd
9/12	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	92	2.2-1	b	Drifted early;handily
8/22	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/7 by nk	81	0.8-1	b	Steady effort

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw13300n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 81-92-81. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Los Alamitos. J. Flores / A. Cervantes.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.36364f).

Use #1 Favorite Daytona ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -9 ↕ Up and down 69–95 Last out 3rd in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 74-95-69. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-6 at Los Alamitos. J. Gomez / H. Lopez. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey H. Lopez · Trainer J. Gomez · KEE 6: 1-0-3 · Dist 6: 1-0-3 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 84 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/8 -1¾L	74	7.1-1		Clean st; good try
9/12	LA	1f D	MSW	Won/8	95	1.0-1		Never in doubt
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	6th/7 -2¾L	69	24-1	b	Came in;shied/lug gap

Longshot #7 The Zion King ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5

Jockey I. Lara · Trainer J. Flores · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/7	78	6.7-1	b	Dueled; proved best

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 78. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Los Alamitos. J. Flores / I. Lara.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.36364f).

★ Distance horse: #4 Levi Gift (3-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 96 from 3 tries, record at the distance 6: 1-2-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #1, #6, #7 · C #2

R5 Los Alamitos · Allowance · $13,600 purse

10:02 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $13,600 · 3 runners (4 out)10:02 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 3 runners (4 out)

Official $14K · Allowance · $13,600 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Levi Gift (3-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 96 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1Favorite DaytonaRan 1stH. Lopez · J. GomezLopez · GomezB74 95 69▼▼-9↕@trip 847-2Fair 4-119%▼▼ Big drop -974 95 69 ↕@trip 84B3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–95 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 95 69

Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Jaime H Gomez 28% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Please Behave 5-1, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R7: Mathilde 9-2, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1 · Trainer R7: Mathilde 9-2

4/6 board here

A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse stakes race at LA, beaten 1¾ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 169d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 1 here: 20 wins, 69 top-3 in 159 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/8 -1¾L	74	7.1-1		Clean st; good try
9/12	LA	1f D	MSW	Won/8	95	1.0-1		Never in doubt
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	6th/7 -2¾L	69	24-1	b	Came in;shied/lug gap

2Gorgeous GuyG. Lara · S. WilloughbyLara · WilloughbyC78 78 79►≡@trip 7915-16%► Steady78 78 79 ≡@trip 79C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–80 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 78 79

Jockey Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Scott L Willoughby 28% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Luna Sofia 7-2

Beaten 2 lengths for 5th in a 6-horse allowance race at LA. 3rd of 32 at 1F on Mar 18, in :12.40.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 176d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara from post 2 here: 10 wins, 55 top-3 in 128 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	5th/6 -2L	78	6.8-1	b	Lacked rally
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	4th/5 -2L	78	11-1	b	In tight early;angled
7/5	LA	1.59091f D	sFutTrl6000	4th/7 -2¼L	79	4.2-1	b	Bpd st;lug out midway

3Call Me ChampionA. Cervantes · J. FloresCervantes · FloresA81 92 81▼-57-225%▼ Down -581 92 81A

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 81 92 81

Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Ap Royal Sweet 6-5, R8: Patrick Jane 10-1 · Trainer this race: Call Me Soft 6-1, this race: The Zion King 10-1, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R6: Chica Chula 9-2 +1 more

4/4 board here

Jockey switch: Irving Lara last out, Armando R Cervantes today. 3rd last time, 1¼ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lug out; drifted; luggd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 114 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 3 here: 6 wins, 28 top-3 in 61 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/6 -1¼L	81	1.0-1	b	Lug out;drifted;luggd
9/12	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	92	2.2-1	b	Drifted early;handily
8/22	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/7 by nk	81	0.8-1	b	Steady effort

4Levi Gift★Ran 3rdR. Aceves · E. AndradeAceves · AndradeA70 75 96▼▼-17↕@trip 963-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -1770 75 96 ↕@trip 96A★ Best at the trip 96

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 75 96

★ Best at the trip 96

Jockey R Aceves 26% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Elena Andrade 25% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Gambling Cowboy 7-2, R7: Golden Mist 8-1 · Trainer R6: Gambling Cowboy 7-2

Jky 9/46 from post 4

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 96, with 95 next best. Figures have slipped: 96, 75, 70 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 127d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD R Aceves from post 4 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	5th/8 -1¼L	70	18-1	b	Fracts/reared;bp early
8/29	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/7	75	1.5-1	b	Broke out;dueled;best
8/8	WYO	1½f D	sAlw14400nc	3rd/10 by hd	96	14-1	b LB	Vied cls in;just missd

5Locked inJ. Ayala · J. GilesAyala · GilesA83 83 80►@trip 805-225%► Steady83 83 80@trip 80A

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 80

Jockey Jesus Rios Ayala 29% career ★ 6-for-25 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Jason T Giles 33% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Wynn In Doubt 5-1

60D LAYOFF

New trainer: Jaime Dominguez had it last time, Jason T Giles now. Moves up from stakes to allowance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

RECORD Jesus Rios Ayala from post 5 here: 15 wins, 31 top-3 in 67 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¼L	83	5.4-1	b L	No rally;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	83	2.7-1	b L	Bore out; held well
5/22	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -2¾L	80	8.5-1	b L	Fractious loading

6Call Me SoftR. Ramirez · J. FloresRamirez · FloresB78 75 83►6-1<1%► Steady78 75 83B

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 78 75 83

Jockey Ricardo S Ramirez 33% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Black Magician 7-2 · Trainer this race: Call Me Champion 7-2, this race: The Zion King 10-1, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R6: Chica Chula 9-2 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Jul 10, in :12.20. Last out was 6th, 1¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 10; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Ricardo S Ramirez from post 6 here: 47 wins, 107 top-3 in 185 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/6 -1¼L	78	13-1	b	Bit slow;lacked room
8/29	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/5 -1¾L	75	6.9-1	b	Bit slow; no menace
3/21	LA	1f D	MSW	Won/5 by ½	83	0.7-1	b	Bit slw/bp;surged;up

7The Zion KingLSRan 2ndI. Lara · J. FloresLara · FloresB7810-1Fair 10-19%—78BLS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 78
LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Irving Lara 26% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Call Me Champion 7-2, this race: Call Me Soft 6-1, R6: Eclipses 9-5, R6: Chica Chula 9-2 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and allowance now. Winner of a 7-horse maiden special weight race at LA last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
SHARP LAST OUT Dueled; proved best last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.20 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Irving Lara from post 7 here: 9 wins, 29 top-3 in 69 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 LA 1.36364f D MSW Won/7 78 6.7-1 b Dueled; proved best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Locked In, was not in the official order (scratched or no finish recorded).

1st1Favorite DaytonaWin$13.20Place$5.00Show$3.00Our #3

2nd7The Zion KingWin—Place$5.00Show$4.60Our #5

3rd4Levi GiftWin—Place—Show$3.40Our #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $13,600 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$13,600

Post

10:02 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 25%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Locked In (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 83 · 83 · 80. Backup is #3 Call Me Champion at 7-2. Use #1 Favorite Daytona in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Favorite Daytona (our #3) won · top pick Locked In ran unplaced

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (unplaced)
✗ Our top 3 finished —, —, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 LOCKED IN	—
#2	#3 CALL ME CHAMPION	—
#3	#1 FAVORITE DAYTONA	1st
#4	#4 LEVI GIFT	3rd
#5	#7 THE ZION KING	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#1 Favorite Daytona	our #3
2nd	#7 The Zion King	our #5
3rd	#4 Levi Gift	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 LOCKED IN (5-2) — our number agrees.
#5 LOCKED IN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.6% to their 22.4%).
#3 CALL ME CHAMPION — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.7%, they've got 17.4%.
#4 LEVI GIFT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 CALL ME CHAMPION — we make it 20.7%, the morning line works out to 17.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 FAVORITE DAYTONA — we make it 20.1%, the morning line works out to 17.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 THE ZION KING (10-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 7.1%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Favorite Daytona, #2 Gorgeous Guy, #3 Call Me Champion.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Favorite Daytona2Gorgeous Guy3Call Me Champion4Levi Gift5Locked In6Call Me Soft7The Zion King

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gorgeous Guy

Call Me Champion

The Zion King

Call Me Soft

Favorite Daytona

Levi Gift

Locked In

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