Pick sheet

Race 610:30 PM Md 12500

1.4F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Eclipses, is 30% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Eclipses ML 9-5 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -12

Jockey H. Lopez · Trainer J. Flores · KEE 3: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 76 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	8th/8 -4¼L	63	52-1	b	Brk out/brshd;shied
8/29	LA	1f D	MSW	5th/6 by nk	75	1.7-1	b	Brk in;drifted in;wkn
8/1	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/8 by nk	76	9.3-1	b	Brk in;drftd;good try

Case: Last out 8th/8 -4¼L in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 63-75-76. Best at today's distance 76. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Los Alamitos. J. Flores / H. Lopez.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #3 Mw Bcause Im Twisted ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ★ Best at 1.36364f dirt: 84 Lasix off

Jockey A. Viramontes · Trainer M. Casselman · Dist 6: 0-1-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 84 · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 by nk	87	8.6-1	b LB	Stp slw;outkick for 2d
8/9	ONE	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/7 -1½L	84	3.9-1	b LB	Drifted out late
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	9th/10 -2½L	66	38-1	b LB	Bore out; steadied

Case: Last out 3rd in the FutTrl10000 at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 87-84-66. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-6 at the distance. M. Casselman / A. Viramontes.

Knock: Never raced at Los Alamitos. 0-for-6 at the distance.

Use #6 Gambling Cowboy ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 Last out 2nd in the Md10000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 75-66-76. Best at today's distance 76. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Los Alamitos. E. Andrade / R. Aceves. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Aceves · Trainer E. Andrade · KEE 4: 0-1-1 · Dist 4: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 76 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	2nd/5 by hd	75	2.6-1	b	Lug out 1/8;outkickd
9/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	5th/6 -1¼L	66	4.4-1	b	Knck gate opn;trbld st
8/16	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	3rd/6 -¾L	76	6.7-1	b	Brushed st; good try

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #6 · B #1, #4, #5

R6 Los Alamitos · Maiden Claiming $12,500

10:30 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $8,595 · 6 runners10:30 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $8,595 · Maiden Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sassy LuluO. MacIas · M. FalesMacIas · FalesB64 63@trip 648-1Fair 15-16%—64 63@trip 64B
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 63
Jockey Osvaldo Macias 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Matt Fales 29% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Moves up from maiden claiming $10,000 to maiden claiming $12,500. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 60d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 LA 1.36364f D MCL 10k 6th/6 -3L 64 16-1 b Weaved early/lost path
9/13 LA 1.36364f D MCL 12k 5th/6 -2L 63 6.5-1 b No menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	6th/6 -3L	64	16-1	b	Weaved early/lost path
9/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	5th/6 -2L	63	6.5-1	b	No menace

2EclipsesH. Lopez · J. FloresLopez · FloresA63 75 76▼▼-12@trip 769-5Fair 5-230%▼▼ Big drop -1263 75 76@trip 76A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 75 76

Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Please Behave 5-1, R5: Favorite Daytona 7-2, R7: Mathilde 9-2, R8: Mr Jack Ventura 15-1 · Trainer R5: Call Me Champion 7-2, R5: Call Me Soft 6-1, R5: The Zion King 10-1, this race: Chica Chula 9-2 +1 more

Figures have slipped: 76, 75, 63 over its last three. 8th last time, 4¼ lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 113d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 2 here: 26 wins, 74 top-3 in 150 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	8th/8 -4¼L	63	52-1	b	Brk out/brshd;shied
8/29	LA	1f D	MSW	5th/6 by nk	75	1.7-1	b	Brk in;drifted in;wkn
8/1	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/8 by nk	76	9.3-1	b	Brk in;drftd;good try

3Mw Bcause Im Twisted★A. Viramontes · M. CasselmanViramontes · CasselmanA87 84 66▲▲+10@trip 845-2Fair 5-228%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best87 84 66@trip 84A★ Best at the trip 842

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 84 66

★ Best at the trip 84

Jockey Armando Viramontes 25% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Mike Casselman 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Texas Cowgirl 123 2-1

New trainer: Tony Hyde had it last time, Mike Casselman now. Owns the highest recent figure here at 87.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 195d ago

RECORD Armando Viramontes from post 3 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 71 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 by nk	87	8.6-1	b LB	Stp slw;outkick for 2d
8/9	ONE	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/7 -1½L	84	3.9-1	b LB	Drifted out late
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	9th/10 -2½L	66	38-1	b LB	Bore out; steadied

4Chica ChulaC. Ochoa · J. FloresOchoa · FloresB72 49@trip 729-2Fair 6-115%—72 49@trip 72B
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 49
Jockey Cristofer Ochoa 26% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R8: Come And Get It 12-1 · Trainer R5: Call Me Champion 7-2, R5: Call Me Soft 6-1, R5: The Zion King 10-1, this race: Eclipses 9-5 +1 more
Finished 3rd in a 5-horse maiden claiming $16,000 race at LA, beaten 1 length. Was running in maiden claiming $16,000; today's maiden claiming $12,500 is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 74d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 LA 1.36364f D MCL 16k 3rd/5 -1L 72 12-1 b Brk in/bpd;won bob 3d
9/5 LA 1.36364f D MSW 5th/5 -5½L 49 22-1 b Wiped out start

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 16k	3rd/5 -1L	72	12-1	b	Brk in/bpd;won bob 3d
9/5	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/5 -5½L	49	22-1	b	Wiped out start

5D RevenantE. Gasca · R. GuillenGasca · GuillenB69 73 64▲+4@trip 738-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +469 73 64@trip 73B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 73 64

Jockey Erasmo Gasca 20% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Ricardo S Guillen 28% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

0/5 board here

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and maiden claiming $12,500 now.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 106d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Erasmo Gasca from post 5 here: 2 wins, 15 top-3 in 39 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/11	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	4th/6 -1¼L	69	6.3-1	In range; weakened
9/27	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	4th/5 -¾L	73	22-1	Lacked rally inside
9/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	6th/6 -1½L	64	17-1	Brk in/bpd;lean/bp 1/8

6Gambling CowboyR. Aceves · E. AndradeAceves · AndradeA75 66 76▲+4@trip 767-2Fair 5-117%▲ Up +475 66 76@trip 76A3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 66 76

Jockey R Aceves 26% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Elena Andrade 25% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Levi Gift 3-1, R7: Golden Mist 8-1 · Trainer R5: Levi Gift 3-1

2/4 board here

Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in a 5-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at LA. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 116d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD R Aceves from post 6 here: 7 wins, 27 top-3 in 53 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	2nd/5 by hd	75	2.6-1	b	Lug out 1/8;outkickd
9/13	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	5th/6 -1¼L	66	4.4-1	b	Knck gate opn;trbld st
8/16	LA	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	3rd/6 -¾L	76	6.7-1	b	Brushed st; good try

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $12,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$8,595

Post

10:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 30%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 14.86

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Eclipses (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 63 · 75 · 76. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #3 Mw Bcause Im Twisted at 5-2. Use #6 Gambling Cowboy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ECLIPSES (9-5) — our number agrees.
#2 ECLIPSES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 28.1%).
#3 MW BCAUSE IM TWISTED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 22.5%).
#6 GAMBLING COWBOY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Sassy Lulu, #2 Eclipses, #3 Mw Bcause Im Twisted.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Sassy Lulu2Eclipses3Mw Bcause Im Twisted4Chica Chula5D Revenant6Gambling Cowboy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sassy Lulu

D Revenant

Eclipses

Mw Bcause Im Twisted

Chica Chula

Gambling Cowboy

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