MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 7
UPCOMINGClaiming $7,500
Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.26
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Fregon (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 73 · 82 · 85. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Fifty B M G at 2-1. Use #2 Kiltoom in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 89. Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 82 to 73.
Julie Robillard takes over the training from Valerie Thompson. A longer trip: -5 furlongs last out, 5½ furlongs today.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. 8th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 8.
Back after 322 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.
Won last out in a 6-horse $15,000 claiming race at MNR. Figures are climbing: 62, 68, 77 over its last three.
Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper. Figures are climbing: 66, 70, 82 over its last three.
Class relief: $12,500 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 10 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Drops from optional claiming to $7,500 claiming.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 FIFTY B M G (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #4 FIFTY B M G — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 26.4%).
- #6 ERLAN — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 19.8%).
- #3 POLSTER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 17.6%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #2 KILTOOM (15-1) — our fair 6.2% is above the morning line's 5.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Fifty B M G; pressure from #2 Kiltoom, #3 Polster; and works against #2 Kiltoom, #3 Polster, #4 Fifty B M G.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#5 Fregon (place saver: #4 Fifty B M G)
#5 Fregon rates the best; #4 Fifty B M G the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#5 Fregon · #4 Fifty B M G
Two standouts with little between them — box #5 Fregon and #4 Fifty B M G both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#5 Fregon · #4 Fifty B M G · #2 Kiltoom
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#5 Fregon / #4 Fifty B M G · #2 Kiltoom · #7 S S Trackside Fun · #3 Polster / #4 Fifty B M G · #2 Kiltoom · #7 S S Trackside Fun · #3 Polster / ALL or #4 Fifty B M G · #2 Kiltoom · #7 S S Trackside Fun · #3 Polster
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1
SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX