MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $4,000
Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.44
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #1 Zippy Gizmo (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 67 · 66 · 68. Backup is #11 Catholic Guilt at 3-1. Use #2 Corona Grande in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Finished 4th in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 11 lengths. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
Carries 124 pounds, 13 more than last time. Gets a new rider, Luis Alberto Batista replacing Jatniel Ramos.
Has moved up each time out, 48 to 62 to 65. Best recent figure is 65, well under the 77 par for this level.
Winless in 11 starts at this distance. Owns the highest recent figure here at 79.
Back after 240 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Gina Perri to Julie Robillard.
Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. 3rd of 75 at 4F on Apr 7, in :48.00.
Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Jockey switch: Alexander Bendezu last out, Brody Martinez today.
0 for 4 at today's distance. Best recent figure is 65, well under the 77 par for this level.
Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 77 par.
Worked 3F in :36.00 on May 3, 2nd of 11 at the distance. Last out was 2nd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Drops from $10,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming.
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 27, in :48.80. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. 6th last time, 16 lengths back, in a field of 6.
Bailey Weatherly takes over from Kyle Gilbert in the saddle. Beaten 6 lengths for 5th in a 6-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 BRAGGADOCIOUS (2-1) — our number has it ranked #10.
- #6 BRAGGADOCIOUS — our #10 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 16.4%).
- #1 ZIPPY GIZMO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (14.3% to their 12.3%).
- #12 VERBIER — our #6 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 14.1%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Cleveland Power; pressure from #13 Frosted Eclair, #11 Catholic Guilt; the shape helps #4 Rackataptap, #7 Tiberius Mercurius, #8 Abuelo Paps; and works against #3 Cleveland Power, #5 First Citizen, #11 Catholic Guilt.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#1 Zippy Gizmo
Top of the field by a clear 10-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#1 Zippy Gizmo OVER #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap
Key #1 Zippy Gizmo on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#1 Zippy Gizmo / #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap / #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap · #7 Tiberius Mercurius
#1 Zippy Gizmo keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#1 Zippy Gizmo / #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap · #7 Tiberius Mercurius / #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap · #7 Tiberius Mercurius / ALL or #11 Catholic Guilt · #2 Corona Grande · #4 Rackataptap · #7 Tiberius Mercurius
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20
BOX $1 SUPER 5 $.50 BOX