MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #8 Mean To Me (a presser/stalker, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 66 · 66 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Seems To Whisper at 12-1. Use #3 Miss M M in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start. Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $5,000 claiming today. Best recent figure is 68, well under the 77 par for this level.
Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $5,000 claiming now. Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 69 to 66.
Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse $5,000 claiming race at MNR. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jun 6 (:35.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Figures are climbing: 54, 64, 67 over its last three.
Sergio Figueroa takes over from Andres Calleja in the saddle. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.
Won last out in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR. Tops the field on speed figures, a 77 against 76 for the next best.
Jockey switch: David Delgado last out, R Diaz today. A 55 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
2nd of 20 at 3F on Jul 8, in :36.00. Last out was 3rd, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse $3,200 claiming race at MNR.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 67 to 62 to 44. Carries 124 pounds, 10 more than last time.
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 BLUE FASHION (2-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #1 BLUE FASHION — our #6 number, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 21.4%).
- #2 GO GO STAR — our #9 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 16.1%).
- #12 STAY FAITHFUL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (10.1% to their 10.7%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #8 MEAN TO ME (10-1) — our fair 7.2% is above the morning line's 5.8%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Go Go Star; pressure from #6 Waterloo Sunset, #7 Dream Life; the shape helps #1 Blue Fashion, #7 Dream Life, #8 Mean To Me; and works against #2 Go Go Star, #6 Waterloo Sunset.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#8 Mean To Me (place saver: #5 Seems To Whisper)
#8 Mean To Me rates the best; #5 Seems To Whisper the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#8 Mean To Me · #5 Seems To Whisper
Two standouts with little between them — box #8 Mean To Me and #5 Seems To Whisper both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#8 Mean To Me · #5 Seems To Whisper · #3 Miss M M
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#8 Mean To Me / #5 Seems To Whisper · #3 Miss M M · #4 Pasta Salad Rhonda · #11 Smart With Heart / #5 Seems To Whisper · #3 Miss M M · #4 Pasta Salad Rhonda · #11 Smart With Heart / ALL or #5 Seems To Whisper · #3 Miss M M · #4 Pasta Salad Rhonda · #11 Smart With Heart
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20
BOX $2 PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) $.50 WHEEL