★ Distance horse: #16 Zach (5-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.
1TroubleonthegreenM. Pedroza · A. GranitzPedroza · GranitzB65 74 66▼-7@trip 663-1Fair 7-112%
▼ Down -765 74 66@trip 66BCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 74 66
★ FASTEST WORKBeaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 12-horse allowance race at IND. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 25 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 2nd/12 -2L 65 4.6-1 b L Stalked btw;bid3w1/8 9/15 IND 1m D sMdSpWt Won/8 74 1.6-1 b L Press;angld4p5/16;duel 8/25 IND 1m T sMdSpWt 2nd/9 -1½L 66 4.3-1 b L Bmpd st;rail;bid1/4 2Scenic Justice▼V. Lara · C. RechyLara · RechyC64 50 68►@trip 6810-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady64 50 68@trip 68C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 50 68
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par. Last out was 4th, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse allowance race at IND.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 97d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 4th/12 -5L 64 38-1 b L 4p;bid3/8;improved 9/29 IND 1m D Clm 5k b 10th/10 -15L 50 27-1 b L Stalk rail;gave way3/8 9/17 IND 1m T sAlw38000n1x 6th/8 -6L 68 3.5-1 b L Angld5p5/16;mild bid 3Turbeau Man▼A. Burgos · S. FosdickBurgos · FosdickC69 62 60▲+7≡@trip 625-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +7 · career best69 62 60 ≡@trip 62C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 60–69 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 62 60
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77Also today · Jockey R1: Trentino 6-1, this race: Zach 5-1, R3: Summer Date 6-1 · Trainer R1: Thousand Byus 20-1, this race: My Lunar Charm 5-1WON LASTHas moved up each time out, 60 to 62 to 69. Won last out in a 9-horse allowance race at IND.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw41000n1x Won/9 69 9.0-1 b L Inside;kept to task 9/11 IND 1m T sAlw41000n1x 5th/10 62 24-1 b L Awk;led inside;caught 8/25 IND 1m D sClm15000n2l 3rd/8 -5½L 60 4.9-1 b L Awk;sted3/4;bid4p5/16 4Storm BackL. De · A. Gonzalez Jr.De · Gonzalez Jr.C58 69 61▼-4@trip 7415-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -458 69 61@trip 74CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 69 61
Also today · Jockey R1: Leopard Rock 6-1, this race: Toy'stroubledhero 10-1, R3: Aubrey Mae 10-1 · Trainer this race: Junkyard Justice 20-1La Cruz Fernando De takes over from Javier Tavares in the saddle. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 183d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 10th/12 -8L 58 36-1 b L Stalked3p;gave way str 9/17 IND 1m T sAlw38000n1x 4th/8 -5½L 69 6.1-1 b L 3path;bid late 9/10 BTP 1 1/16 D Alw n2l 3rd/6 -7L 61 12-1 b L 2-3w bid;along for 3rd 5Ready to SeizeS. Sanjur · M. LauerSanjur · LauerB66 78 72▼-4@trip 788-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -466 78 72@trip 78B2Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 78 72
Turns back in 8 days. 3rd of 10 at 3F on Jun 17, in :37.80.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 23d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x 3rd/9 -7L 66 2.8-1 b L Inside;bid1/8 9/8 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x 4th/9 -5½L 78 3.2-1 b L Inside;rally3p1/8 8/25 IND 5½f D sAlw43000n2x 5th/6 -11L 72 17-1 b L Well back;no late bid 6My Lunar CharmI. Moncada · S. FosdickMoncada · FosdickC64 73 60▼-4@trip 725-1Fair 8-112%
▼ Down -464 73 60@trip 72C1Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 73 60
Also today · Jockey R1: Thousand Byus 20-1 · Trainer R1: Thousand Byus 20-1, this race: Turbeau Man 5-1Sheds 5 pounds from its last start. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x 5th/9 -9¼L 64 2.8-1 L 4path;mild late bid 9/24 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw43000n2x Won/7 by 1½ 73 2.5-1 L Bid btw5/8;rally4p;drv 9/11 IND 1 1/16 D sGvrnorsHB150k 11th/11 -13L 60 18-1 L Settled early 7Bout Tree FiddyJ. Bealmear · J. HaranBealmear · HaranC59 72 58▼-7@trip 7212-1Fair 30-14%
▼ Down -759 72 58@trip 72CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 72 58
0 for 5 at today's distance. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 77).
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 9th/12 -½L 59 12-1 b L Led rail;gave way1/8 9/17 IND 1m T sAlw38000n1x 2nd/8 72 15-1 b L Dueled;couldn't last 8/19 IND 1 1/16 D sAlw39600n1x 6th/7 -10L 58 75-1 b L Inside trip 8JusticeonemoretimeJ. Diego · R. ThurmanDiego · ThurmanA67 69 70▼-4≡5-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -467 69 70 ≡ACard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 67–74 · Last 3 figs 67 69 70
Switches from dirt to turf. Moves up from allowance to allowance.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 188d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 FPK 1¾m D Alw s 4th/6 -13L 67 11-1 b L Chased pace; empty 9/11 IND 1 1/16 D sEmpireH100k 12th/12 -14L 69 86-1 b L Bmp st;4p;no late bid 8/19 IND 1 1/16 D sAlw39600n1x 4th/7 -2L 70 9.4-1 b L Stlk btw;bid4p1/4;falt 9Machts NichtsM. Murrill · A. GranitzMurrill · GranitzC72 65 69▲▲+11↕@trip 6620-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +1172 65 69 ↕@trip 66CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–72 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 65 69
Raises its level, $15,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on May 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 IND 1 1/16 D sClm15000n2l 2nd/7 -1½L 72 1.0-1 b L Stalked btw;bid3p5/16 7/7 IND 1 1/16 D sClm15000n2l 3rd/6 -4L 65 1.5-1 b L Frac gt;angld5p3/16 6/9 IND 1 1/16 D sClm15000n2l 3rd/7 -4L 69 8.2-1 b L Settld;4p5/16;bid late 10Tap Tap Tap It in▲J. Ramos · G. DorochenkoRamos · DorochenkoC48 71 69▼▼-18↕20-1Fair 30-13%
▼▼ Big drop -1848 71 69 ↕C▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–71 · Last 3 figs 48 71 69
▲ Lone speed on early paceNew trainer: Tim Eggleston had it last time, Gennadi Dorochenko now. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 36d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 6f D Clm 7k n2lc 7th/8 -11L 48 1.2-1 b L Stalked4p;gave way5/16 8/19 IND 5½f D sAlw38000n2l 5th/9 -4½L 71 2.8-1 b L Awk;evenly5path 7/28 IND 6f D sAlw38200n1x 5th/7 -3L 69 3.0-1 b L Hop;press4p;bid3/8 11Junkyard Justice▼J. Romero · A. Gonzalez Jr.Romero · Gonzalez Jr.C57 67 66▼-7@trip 6620-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -757 67 66@trip 66C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 77Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 67 66
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 77Best recent figure is 67, well under the 77 par for this level. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 16d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x 8th/9 -13L 57 11-1 b L No factor 9/24 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw43000n2x 4th/7 -8½L 67 7.1-1 b L Bid1/4;5path stretch 9/11 IND 1m T sAlw41000n1x Won/10 by 6½ 66 30-1 b L Rally5p3/16;in time 12Lookout KidLSA. Mendoza · J. LangemeierMendoza · LangemeierC64 66 57►≡@trip 6612-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady64 66 57 ≡@trip 66CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 57–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 66 57
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Gets a new rider, Amir Mendoza replacing Alexander Crispin. Worked 3F in :36.60 on May 16, 2nd of 26 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.TROUBLED TRIP Awk; 4p; bid5/8; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 51d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 5th/12 -2½L 64 82-1 b L Awk;4p;bid5/8;faltered 9/17 IND 1m T sAlw38000n1x 8th/8 -8L 66 5.3-1 b L Bumped start 6/17 IND 1 1/16 D sAlw38200n1x 5th/7 -12L 57 4.4-1 b L Jostled start;unrushed 13FogoneroS. Sanjur · A. DuranSanjur · DuranB62 70 75▼▼-104-1Fair 8-111%
▼▼ Big drop -1062 70 75B3Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 62 70 75
Figures have slipped: 75, 70, 62 over its last three. 7th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 12.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 87 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 IND 1 1/16 T sAlw38000n1x 7th/12 -5½L 62 12-1 L Evenly3path 9/11 IND 1 1/16 D sGvrnorsHB150k 5th/11 -6¼L 70 26-1 L Rallied5p3/8;faltered 8/11 IND 1 1/16 D sMdSpWt Won/9 by 1½ 75 3.2-1 L 3p;rail1/4;bid1/8;drvg 14Rosso FuocoJ. Ramos · R. KloppRamos · KloppC74 71 65▲▲+8@trip 6112-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best74 71 65@trip 61CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 71 65
Also today · Jockey R1: Harwich Port 10-1, this race: Tap Tap Tap It In 20-1, R3: Ability 10-1 · Trainer this race: Toy'stroubledhero 10-1CLASS UPA step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Mar 27; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 IND 1m D sClm12500b 2nd/7 74 5.7-1 b L Duel;sted5/8;bid3p1/2 9/16 IND 1m D sClm7500n2l Won/8 71 1.1-1 b L Rail;bid5/16;driving 8/11 IND 1 1/16 D sClm15000n2l 2nd/8 -4L 65 3.7-1 b L Angld3p1/4;bid;no mtch 15Toy'stroubledheroL. De · R. KloppDe · KloppA75 81 61▲+410-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +475 81 61ACard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 75 81 61
Also today · Jockey R1: Leopard Rock 6-1, this race: Storm Back 15-1, R3: Aubrey Mae 10-1 · Trainer this race: Rosso Fuoco 12-1★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTSwitches from dirt to turf. Tops the field on speed figures, an 81 against 78 for the next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Apr 4; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 IND 1m D sClm12500b Won/7 by 1½ 75 6.5-1 b L Awk;4p;rally1/16;drvg 9/22 IND 1 1/16 D sClm12500b 3rd/7 -4½L 81 7.2-1 b L Stalked3p;no match 8/26 IND 1 1/16 D sClm12500b 6th/11 -8½L 61 5.0-1 L 3path;mild bid;falterd 16Zach★A. Burgos · J. HaranBurgos · HaranA69 67 81▼-4@trip 815-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -469 67 81@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 81Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 67 81
★ Best at the trip 81Also today · Jockey R1: Trentino 6-1, this race: Turbeau Man 5-1, R3: Summer Date 6-1 · Trainer this race: Bout Tree Fiddy 12-1★ FASTEST WORKPosted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Jul 15, in 1:01.00. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stalk rail; steadied3/4), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Jul 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 IND 1 1/16 T OC 10k 11th/11 -5½L 69 14-1 b L Stalk rail;steadied3/4 9/22 IND 1m T OC 15k 9th/9 -1½L 67 3.8-1 b L 3p;bid1/2;press;faded 9/8 IND 1m T sAlw43000n2x Won/9 by ½ 81 2.0-1 b L Bid1/2;4p3/16;rallied
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (10 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 2
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $38,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 My Lunar Charm (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 64 · 73 · 60. Backup is #5 Ready To Seize at 8-1. Use #13 Fogonero in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 TROUBLEONTHEGREEN (3-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #1 TROUBLEONTHEGREEN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 13.5%).
- #13 FOGONERO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.9% to their 10.8%).
- #6 MY LUNAR CHARM — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 9.9%, the board 9.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Turbeau Man; pressure from #10 Tap Tap Tap It In, #9 Machts Nichts; the shape helps #1 Troubleonthegreen, #4 Storm Back, #7 Bout Tree Fiddy; and works against #3 Turbeau Man, #10 Tap Tap Tap It In.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3
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