1Catnip Hill▼S. Pauly · F. HorvathPauly · HorvathC52 51 63►↕@trip 6330-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady52 51 63 ↕@trip 63C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–63 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 51 63
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Last out was 7th, 15 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 126d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 1 1/16 D MSW 7th/8 -15L 52 81-1 No factor 10/6 IND 1m T MCL 20k 8th/10 -10L 51 71-1 4path evenly 9/23 IND 1m T MSW 8th/9 -9L 63 111-1 Jost st;inside;gv way 2Aubrey Mae▼L. De · M. MakerDe · MakerC5810-1Fair 20-15%
—58C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 58
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 74★ FASTEST WORKBest recent figure is 58, well under the 74 par for this level. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 1 1/16 D MSW 6th/7 -9L 58 13-1 b L Jostled st;savd ground 3Lady Blast▼M. Fernandez · R. LabraFernandez · LabraC58 75 58▼▼-915-1Fair 30-14%
▼▼ Big drop -958 75 58C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 75)Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 58 75 58
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 75)★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $35,000. Rogelio Labra takes over the training from Jose M Camejo.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/16 BTP 5f T MSW 3rd/7 -9½L 58 2.3-1 L Inside run; moved up 11/28 FG 5½f T MSW 5th/11 -3¼L 75 24-1 L Btw; best stride late 10/16 IND 5f T MCL 25k 4th/9 -3½L 58 1.1-1 b Dueled;couldn't last 4WeftA. Jimenez · E. WestJimenez · West?15-1Fair 30-14%
—Debut?Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Debut for this Always Dreaming filly, whose dam is Cotton Lane. This barn has 74 first-time starters on record and wins 14% of them.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
First start. By Always Dreaming out of Cotton Lane (English Channel)Trainer E. West: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 35% in the money (74 starts)Jockey A. Jimenez in turf: 3 wins from 16 (19%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 TP 4f :49.60 breezing 46/61 10/17 TP 4f :49.40 breezing 39/66 10/9 TP 5f 1:02.20 breezing 10/19 9/30 TP 4f :49.40 breezing 16/42 9/22 TP 4f :48.00 breezing 11/72 from gate 5Summer DateA. Burgos · R. MedinaBurgos · MedinaB53 70 72▼▼-18@trip 726-1Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -1853 70 72@trip 72BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 70 72
CLASS DROPFigures have slipped: 72, 70, 53 over its last three. Beaten 10 lengths for 5th in a 5-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at KEE.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 69d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 KEE 1 1/16 D MCL 30k 5th/5 -10L 53 4.8-1 L Ins;chased 4p2nd;tired 9/12 CD 1⅛m T MCL 50k 5th/10 -4½L 70 10-1 L Ins;5p upr;willingly 9/5 KD 1m T MSW 8th/12 -3¾L 72 25-1 L Tight 3/16;flattened 6Laythatpistoldown▼O. Mojica · C. BlockMojica · BlockB65 68@trip 687-2Fair 5-116%
—65 68@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 741Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 74CLASS UPRaises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden claiming $35,000 now. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3p; checked3/4; bid3/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 9d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1m T MCL 20k 2nd/10 -4L 65 3.7-1 L 3p;checked3/4;bid3/8 9/9 IND 1m T MCL 12k 2nd/10 by hd 68 2.2-1 L Bmp;3p;bid4p1/4;dueled 7Volatile Spark▼M. Nicholls · W. GallagherNicholls · GallagherC51 50@trip 5125-1Fair 50-12%
—51 50@trip 51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 50
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 74Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 51 against a 74 par. A step up in company: maiden claiming $20,000 before, maiden claiming $35,000 today.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1m T MCL 20k 9th/10 -11L 51 17-1 b Awk start;saved ground 11/13 CD 6f D MSW 11th/11 -12L 50 42-1 Saved ground; tired 8Figurine▼J. Bealmear · J. HoldenBealmear · HoldenC56 62 58►≡@trip 6930-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady56 62 58 ≡@trip 69C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 55–62 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 62 58
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74★ FASTEST WORKMaiden through 10 starts. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1m T MCL 20k 6th/10 -10L 56 48-1 b L Improved position late 9/1 IND 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/10 -6½L 62 66-1 b L 4path;bid1/2;faltered 8/20 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 20k 3rd/7 by hd 58 14-1 b L Bid5/8;duel;gave way 9Risky Wave★V. Carrasco · G. ArnoldCarrasco · ArnoldA54 72 71▼▼-19↕@trip 804-1Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -1954 72 71 ↕@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 803Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–77 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 72 71
★ Best at the trip 80Switches from dirt to turf. Finished 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 14 lengths.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 1 1/16 D MSW 6th/8 -14L 54 14-1 b L Stalked4p;gave way3/8 9/12 CD 1⅛m T MCL 50k 3rd/10 -2½L 72 7.5-1 b L Brshd btw st;2p;ran on 8/16 ELP 1 1/16 T MCL 50k 4th/11 -1¾L 71 7.0-1 L Tracked ins; evenly 10AbilityLSJ. Ramos · J. WojczynskiRamos · WojczynskiB67 78 83▼▼-10@trip 6010-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -1067 78 83@trip 60BLSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 78 83
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R1: Harwich Port 10-1, R2: Tap Tap Tap It In 20-1, R2: Rosso Fuoco 12-1 · Trainer R1: Gandy Dancer 6-1Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 78 to 67. Off 45 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 IND 1 1/16 T MCL 30k 3rd/7 -3L 67 4.6-1 b L Bid2p5/16;no late gain 8/6 CNL 1⅛m T MSW 6th/8 -5¼L 78 52-1 b L Chased 3wd; faded 7/12 CNL 1 1/16 T MCL 40k 4th/9 -3L 83 7.3-1 b L Ins-2p;angl out/in str 11Snowglobe▲D. Cannon · J. CruzCannon · CruzA77 66 71▲▲+9@trip 776-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best77 66 71@trip 77A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 74Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 66 71
▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 7460D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK0 for 4 at today's distance. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 20 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 20; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 CNL 1m T MCL 16k 2nd/10 -¾L 77 7.4-1 L Wait 7/16;moved 3w 7/16 CNL 1m T MCL 16k 4th/11 by hd 66 5.7-1 L Vied ins;2w upr;wkn1/8 6/26 CNL 1m T MCL 16k 3rd/10 -2½L 71 16-1 L Brk in bmpd;2p;tip3w 12Union RoseM. Pedroza · W. CowansPedroza · CowansA69 76 71▼-5≡@trip 763-1Fair 5-117%
▼ Down -569 76 71 ≡@trip 76A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 76 71
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 45-day gap since its last race. Finished 2nd last time in a 7-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at IND.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 IND 1 1/16 T MCL 30k 2nd/7 69 2.9-1 L Press3p;bid1/4;dueled 7/25 ELP 1m T MCL 30k 4th/8 -2L 76 1.1-1 L 3w1st;5p upr;bid;wknd 6/3 CD 1m T MCL 50k 4th/10 -2½L 71 7.9-1 L Trck 3pbtw;5p upr;stay 13Little Ugh▼M. Fernandez · B. KingFernandez · KingC3625-1Fair 50-12%
—36C▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 36
▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 74LASIX 1STGoes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Broke slowly; outrun), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 6½f D MSW 11th/11 -22L 36 67-1 b Broke slowly; outrun 14TectonicM. Meeks · F. HorvathMeeks · HorvathC54 62 45►@trip 7425-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady54 62 45@trip 74CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 62 45
Changes barns, from Justin Wojczynski to Frank K Horvath. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 107 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BTP 1 1/16 D MCL 7k 3rd/5 -1L 54 5.5-1 L Stlkd;ins 1/4;kept on 9/17 BTP 1m T MCL 7k 3rd/9 -2½L 62 7.5-1 L Mid-pack; mvd up 3rd 9/4 BTP 1 1/16 T MCL 7k 3rd/6 -½L 45 5.4-1 L 3wbid; wknd1/8
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 3
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $35,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Laythatpistoldown (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 65 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #12 Union Rose at 3-1. Use #9 Risky Wave in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #12 UNION ROSE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #12 UNION ROSE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 17.3%).
- #6 LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.5% to their 15.4%).
- #9 RISKY WAVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 13.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #12 Union Rose; pressure from #11 Snowglobe, #3 Lady Blast.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 3 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3
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