R1 Special wager pool · Maiden Special Weight

3:56 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $43,520 · 13 runners3:56 PM · 1m Turf · 13 runners

Upcoming $44K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tiznot▼A. Serpa · I. AcevedoSerpa · AcevedoA66 54@trip 666-1Fair 10-19%—66 54@trip 66A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 54
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Angel Serpa 23% career · Trainer Israel Acevedo 22% career
★ FASTEST WORK
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 79 par.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 IND 1m T MSW 3rd/10 66 23-1 Bid3/8;duel;caught
9/29 IND 5f T MSW 4th/9 -8½L 54 9.8-1 3path;improved late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	IND	1m T	MSW	3rd/10	66	23-1		Bid3/8;duel;caught
9/29	IND	5f T	MSW	4th/9 -8½L	54	9.8-1		3path;improved late

2Honor and Courage▼A. Mendoza · G. GarciaMendoza · GarciaC55 66 49▲+3↕15-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +355 66 49 ↕C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–66 · Last 3 figs 55 66 49

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Lookout Kid 12-1

New trainer: Thomas D Vance had it last time, Genaro Garcia now. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	KEE	-7f D	MCL 30kc	5th/10 -4¼L	55	6.1-1	b	Ins pair turn;yield1/4
9/16	CD	1m D	MCL 30k	2nd/5	66	13-1	b	Brk out;led 1/8;caught
8/21	ELP	6f D	Moc50000	10th/11 -13L	49	90-1	b	Came out st;saved grnd

3Leopard RockL. De · E. VaughanDe · Vaughan?6-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey La Cruz Fernando De · Trainer Edward Vaughan 19% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Storm Back 15-1, R2: Toy'stroubledhero 10-1, R3: Aubrey Mae 10-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Liam's Map out of Betwixting. Debut for a trainer who is 5% with first-timers, over 20 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
First start. By Liam's Map out of Betwixting (Macho Uno)
Trainer E. Vaughan: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 35% in the money (20 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 44% in the money (16 starts) · Maiden special weights: 13% wins, 41% in the money (54 starts)
Jockey L. De in turf: 21 wins from 156 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 TTC 4f :48.20 breezing 5/54 from gate
10/17 TTC 4f :51.00 breezing 30/52
10/10 TTC 4f :50.20 breezing 20/38 from gate
10/3 TTC 4f :51.60 breezing 12/20
9/26 TTC 3f :39.80 breezing 10/13
4TrentinoA. Burgos · B. WalshBurgos · Walsh?6-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Turbeau Man 5-1, R2: Zach 5-1, R3: Summer Date 6-1
Unraced; this barn has 433 first-time starters on record and wins 15% of them. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 23).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
First start. By Dubawi out of Sentiero Italia (Medaglia D'oro)
Trainer B. Walsh: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 38% in the money (433 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 37% in the money (372 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 45% in the money (1051 starts)
Jockey A. Burgos in turf: 14 wins from 88 (16%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 TP 4f :48.60 breezing 23/61 from gate
10/15 TP 5f 1:02.60 breezing 4/8
10/8 TP 4f :48.40 breezing 4/24 from gate
9/29 TP 5f 1:03.20 breezing 14/15
9/22 TP 4f :50.40 breezing 63/72
5Guide Me HomeM. Murrill · D. SimpsonMurrill · Simpson?12-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career · Trainer Daniel Simpson 29% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Machts Nichts 20-1 · Trainer this race: Beach Vibe 3-1
In the morning works, on Oct 3 it was 2nd of 15 at 4F (:48.40). Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Mystic Guide and Mo Me Mo My breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 10d ago)
Last three races
First start. By Mystic Guide out of Mo Me Mo My (Uncle Mo)
Trainer D. Simpson: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 14% in the money (7 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 14% in the money (7 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 26% in the money (19 starts)
Jockey M. Murrill in turf: 16 wins from 145 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/20 IND 5f 1:02.00 breezing 10/21 from gate
10/10 IND 5f 1:01.20 breezing 4/9
10/3 IND 4f :48.40 breezing 2/15
9/24 IND 4f :52.40 breezing 31/33
8/4 IND 4f :48.80 breezing 9/40 from gate
6Thousand Byus▼I. Moncada · S. FosdickMoncada · FosdickC61 63 64►@trip 6120-1Fair 20-14%► Steady61 63 64@trip 61C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 63 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Irving Moncada 33% career · Trainer Steve Fosdick 22% career
Also today · Jockey R2: My Lunar Charm 5-1 · Trainer R2: Turbeau Man 5-1, R2: My Lunar Charm 5-1
Best recent figure is 64, well under the 79 par for this level. 6th last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 IND 1m T MSW 6th/10 -6L 61 24-1 b Angld3p5/16;no bid
9/30 IND 1m D MSW 4th/8 -3L 63 29-1 b Saved ground;faded str
9/17 IND 5½f D MSW 5th/9 -8½L 64 12-1 b Hop start;saved ground
7Glen Road▼A. Jimenez · E. WestJimenez · WestC4712-1Fair 20-14%—47C▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 47
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Albin Jimenez 34% career · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Weft 15-1 · Trainer R3: Weft 15-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.80 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 KEE 6f D MSW 9th/10 -10L 47 9.1-1 Tracked 5p;chased;wknd
8Center Fielder▼M. Meeks · D. SalvadorMeeks · SalvadorC59@trip 5920-1Fair 30-13%—59@trip 59C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 59
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Micah Meeks 13% career · Trainer Deivys Salvador 14% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Tectonic 25-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now. Finished 8th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 7½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 19; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 IND 1m T MSW 8th/10 -7½L 59 43-1 b Stalked2p;gave way1/2
9Gandy Dancer▼S. Pauly · J. WojczynskiPauly · WojczynskiB67@trip 676-1Fair 8-110%—67@trip 67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 793
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career · Trainer Justin Wojczynski 26% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Catnip Hill 30-1 · Trainer R3: Ability 10-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Owns the highest recent figure here at 67. Last out was 11th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 22; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 KEE 1m T MSW 11th/12 -10L 67 62-1 b Stdy btw st;keen;6-3p
10Hard Rocker▼M. Pedroza · E. HartyPedroza · HartyB634-1Fair 7-113%—63B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 792
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Marcelino Pedroza · Trainer Eoin Harty 34% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Troubleonthegreen 3-1, R3: Union Rose 3-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile. A 82-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/9 ELP 5½f T MSW 8th/12 -9L 63 11-1 b Off slow; saved ground
11Very Royal▼J. Elliott · J. AranhaElliott · AranhaA67 67 58▲+4@trip 675-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +4 · career best67 67 58@trip 67A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 791
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 58
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Jane Elliott 35% career · Trainer Jose Luiz Aranha 14% career
Owns the highest recent figure here at 67. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 IND 1m T MSW 2nd/10 -5½L 67 16-1 Rail;shft4p1/8;rallied
9/17 CD 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/8 -4¾L 67 41-1 Mild bid 5 wide
8/4 IND 7½f T MSW 6th/10 -8L 58 32-1 Bid1/2;4p;no late bid
12Harwich Port▼LSJ. Ramos · F. BogleRamos · BogleB63 37@trip 6310-1Fair 15-17%—63 37@trip 63B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 37
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career · Trainer Fergus Bogle 19% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Tap Tap Tap It In 20-1, R2: Rosso Fuoco 12-1, R3: Ability 10-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 17, in :49.20. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden special weight, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 CD 1m T MSW 11th/12 -5L 63 58-1 3p;6p1/4;faded
9/9 KD 7f T MSW 9th/9 -12L 37 16-1 2-3wd;dropped back
13Beach Vibe▼O. Mojica · D. SimpsonMojica · SimpsonA65 57 53▲▲+93-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best65 57 53A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 65 57 53
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey O Mojica 34% career · Trainer Daniel Simpson 29% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Laythatpistoldown 7-2 · Trainer this race: Guide Me Home 12-1
Has moved up each time out, 53 to 57 to 65. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Checkd after st; 5p btw), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 KEE 7f D MSW 9th/12 -11L 65 48-1 Checkd after st;5p btw
9/10 IND 1m D MSW 4th/7 -3½L 57 12-1 4p;bid3/8;faded str
8/5 IND 5f D MSW 9th/11 -9¼L 53 12-1 Squeezed back early

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	TTC	4f	:48.20	breezing	5/54	from gate
10/17	TTC	4f	:51.00	breezing	30/52
10/10	TTC	4f	:50.20	breezing	20/38	from gate
10/3	TTC	4f	:51.60	breezing	12/20
9/26	TTC	3f	:39.80	breezing	10/13

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	TP	4f	:48.60	breezing	23/61	from gate
10/15	TP	5f	1:02.60	breezing	4/8
10/8	TP	4f	:48.40	breezing	4/24	from gate
9/29	TP	5f	1:03.20	breezing	14/15
9/22	TP	4f	:50.40	breezing	63/72

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/20	IND	5f	1:02.00	breezing	10/21	from gate
10/10	IND	5f	1:01.20	breezing	4/9
10/3	IND	4f	:48.40	breezing	2/15
9/24	IND	4f	:52.40	breezing	31/33
8/4	IND	4f	:48.80	breezing	9/40	from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	IND	1m T	MSW	6th/10 -6L	61	24-1	b	Angld3p5/16;no bid
9/30	IND	1m D	MSW	4th/8 -3L	63	29-1	b	Saved ground;faded str
9/17	IND	5½f D	MSW	5th/9 -8½L	64	12-1	b	Hop start;saved ground

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	6f D	MSW	9th/10 -10L	47	9.1-1		Tracked 5p;chased;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	IND	1m T	MSW	8th/10 -7½L	59	43-1	b	Stalked2p;gave way1/2

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	KEE	1m T	MSW	11th/12 -10L	67	62-1	b	Stdy btw st;keen;6-3p

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ELP	5½f T	MSW	8th/12 -9L	63	11-1	b	Off slow; saved ground

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/13	IND	1m T	MSW	2nd/10 -5½L	67	16-1	Rail;shft4p1/8;rallied
9/17	CD	1 1/16 T	MSW	6th/8 -4¾L	67	41-1	Mild bid 5 wide
8/4	IND	7½f T	MSW	6th/10 -8L	58	32-1	Bid1/2;4p;no late bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	CD	1m T	MSW	11th/12 -5L	63	58-1		3p;6p1/4;faded
9/9	KD	7f T	MSW	9th/9 -12L	37	16-1		2-3wd;dropped back

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/15	KEE	7f D	MSW	9th/12 -11L	65	48-1	Checkd after st;5p btw
9/10	IND	1m D	MSW	4th/7 -3½L	57	12-1	4p;bid3/8;faded str
8/5	IND	5f D	MSW	9th/11 -9¼L	53	12-1	Squeezed back early

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

13 runners

Purse

$43,520

Post

3:56 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#11 · 15%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #11 Very Royal (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 67 · 67 · 58. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Hard Rocker at 4-1. Use #9 Gandy Dancer in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #13 BEACH VIBE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
#13 BEACH VIBE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 15.7%).
#11 VERY ROYAL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 12.7%, they've got 10.5%.
#10 HARD ROCKER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 12.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 VERY ROYAL — we make it 12.7%, the morning line works out to 10.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Tiznot; pressure from #6 Thousand Byus, #2 Honor And Courage; the shape helps #11 Very Royal; and works against #1 Tiznot, #2 Honor And Courage, #3 Leopard Rock.

Lead

1Tiznot966Thousand Byus862Honor And Courage8313Beach Vibe81

Press

none

Stalk

none

11Very Royal78

No style yet

8Center Fielder907Glen Road899Gandy Dancer8212Harwich Port7810Hard Rocker763Leopard Rock4Trentino5Guide Me Home

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tiznot

Thousand Byus

Honor And Courage

Beach Vibe

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Very Royal

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LEG 1 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3

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