★ Distance horse: #10 Christa Mcauliffe (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.
1Cara RoseLSA. Aguilar · S. MiyadiAguilar · MiyadiC75 65 42▲▲+17↕20-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +1775 65 42 ↕CLSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–75 · Last 3 figs 75 65 42
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1STBack after 364 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Purse drops from $175,000 to $67,000 against its last start.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 12d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/31 DMR 7f D fsGldStJuvFB175k 6th/11 -9L 75 33-1 Came 4w; evenly 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 3rd/6 -2½L 65 5.9-1 Chased 3wd; denied 2nd 9/6 DMR 1m T JuvFlTrf Stk 11th/11 -12L 42 37-1 Outside;tired 2nd;easd 2Factor P▲A. Ayuso · A. GarciaAyuso · GarciaA87 71 85▲▲+13↕@trip 859-2Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best87 71 85 ↕@trip 85A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 851Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–87 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 71 85
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85CLASS UPWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 87 sits right around the 85 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x Won/10 87 70-1 b L Outsd;open up;lasted 9/13 LRC 5½f D fsOC20000n1x 4th/5 -1L 71 4.3-1 b L Bp st;bid5/16;faltered 8/7 DMR 6f D fsMdSpWt Won/7 85 1.2-1 b L Cleard3/8;drftd midstr 3Taking a Joy Ride▲H. Berrios · C. LewisBerrios · LewisA87 73 79▲▲+87-2Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 73 79A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 73 79
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85CLASS UPDropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call. Beaten 3½ lengths for 2nd in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 2nd/10 -3½L 87 7.3-1 b L Ins;split foes3/16;mss 9/7 DMR 5f T fsOC20000n1x 7th/12 -3L 73 10-1 b L Up close3deep;evenly 7/24 DMR 7f D fsFleetTrtB150k 4th/9 -7½L 79 16-1 b Bpd9/16;3wd;no rally 4Famous Forza▲D. Van · B. McLeanVan · McLeanC85 87 78▲+6@trip 7815-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +685 87 78@trip 78C▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 853Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 78
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85CLASS DROPSwitches from turf to dirt. An 87 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T fsOC20000n1x 4th/9 -1½L 85 3.1-1 L Stalked ins;rally btwn 9/7 DMR 5f T OC 50k Won/9 by 2½ 87 12-1 L 2wd;angled out;surged 8/15 DMR 6f D OC 50k 2nd/6 -3¼L 78 4.9-1 L Ins;angled4-5w;tip out 5Redheaded RebaT. Pereira · D. DunhamPereira · DunhamA84 69 83▲+4@trip 847-2Fair 6-115%
▲ Up +484 69 83@trip 84ACard model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 69 83
CLASS UP3rd of 8 at 5F on Sep 18, in 1:01.80. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA, beaten 4 lengths.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled; 3wd; mild rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 3rd/10 -4L 84 2.3-1 L Bobbled;3wd;mild rally 8/23 DMR 1m T fsOC20000n1x 11th/12 -11L 69 15-1 L Brk out/bmpd;3wd;3-4wd 7/30 DMR 6f D fsOC20000n1x 2nd/12 -2¾L 83 7.5-1 L 4w;swung out;flotd out 6Kool KittenR. Gonzalez · A. MathisGonzalez · MathisC55 8815-1Fair 20-15%
—55 88CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 55 88
Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Last out was 10th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse optional claiming race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 10th/10 -8L 55 3.1-1 L Prss ins;shft7/16;fold 9/4 DMR 6½f D fsMdSpWt Won/9 88 4.8-1 L Opened up;kept to task 7Come on OmT. Baze · S. McCarthyBaze · McCarthyC55 83 81▼▼-27↕20-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -2755 83 81 ↕C2Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–83 · Last 3 figs 55 83 81
LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSStretches out from -6½ furlongs to 6 furlongs. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA -6½f T JCHarris G3 9th/9 -12L 55 65-1 Close early;eased lane 8/9 DMR 5f T fsOC20000n1x 4th/10 -½L 83 9.8-1 L Duel outside;flattened 7/26 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt Won/10 81 3.2-1 L Reluctnt;3deep;btw;clr 8JasminaK. Frey · R. Hess Jr.Frey · Hess Jr.B82 78 76▲+5≡6-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +5 · career best82 78 76 ≡BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–82 · Last 3 figs 82 78 76
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTA step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 78 to 82.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobble; stalked3w; clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 LRC 5½f D Clm 20k n3l Won/6 82 1.0-1 b L Bobble;stalked3w;clear 8/16 DMR 5½f D Clm 16k n3lc 3rd/8 -3L 78 1.8-1 b L Bpd st;bid3wd;no match 7/31 DMR 5½f D Clm 16k c 2nd/8 -2½L 76 2.9-1 b L 4wd;rally;too late 9Meridian Mae▼W. Orantes · M. PuypeOrantes · PuypeC70 80 55►↕@trip 8020-1Fair 30-14%
► Steady70 80 55 ↕@trip 80C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 80 55
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK217 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.40 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/27 SA 6½f D OC 50k 5th/7 -3L 70 1.2-1 L Crowded st;prssd;wknd 2/21 SA 6f D fsMd50000 Won/8 80 5.0-1 L Vie btw;duel ins;clear 1/17 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 10th/11 -8L 55 22-1 L Chased 3deep; tired 10Christa Mcauliffe★M. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiB81 66 77▲+6@trip 876-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +681 66 77@trip 87B★ Best at the trip 87Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 66 77
★ Best at the trip 87CLASS DROPWas 5th of 5 at the first call last time. 2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 5.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 6f D fsOC20000n1x 2nd/5 -½L 81 14-1 L Off slow;ins;rail bid 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 8th/10 -10L 66 6.2-1 L Shuffled 2p turn;tip3w 9/13 LRC 5½f D fsOC20000n1x 3rd/5 -3L 77 0.9-1 L Ins;tip3w;late run btw 11La SilenciosaE. Maldonado · V. GarciaMaldonado · GarciaB79 76 79►≡@trip 7910-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady79 76 79 ≡@trip 79BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–85 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 76 79
CLASS UPGets a new rider, E Maldonado replacing Tiago Pereira. An 85 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 5th/10 -8½L 79 22-1 b L 4-3wide; no rally 7/30 DMR 6f D fsOC20000n1x 7th/12 by nk 76 14-1 b L Insd bid 5/16;faltered 5/2 SA 6f D fsOC50000n1x 4th/7 -1L 79 1.8-1 b L Vie ins;duel turn;wknd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWL · RACE 5
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $50,000
Claiming $50,000, for fillies, 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #2 Factor P (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 87 · 71 · 85. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Come On Om at 20-1. Use #4 Famous Forza in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 REDHEADED REBA (7-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #5 REDHEADED REBA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 17.5%).
- #3 TAKING A JOY RIDE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 17.5%).
- #2 FACTOR P — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 COME ON OM (20-1) — our fair 4.7% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Factor P; pressure from #6 Kool Kitten, #9 Meridian Mae; and works against #2 Factor P, #6 Kool Kitten, #9 Meridian Mae.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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