1Curlin TornadoLSM. Americano · S. MorfinAmericano · MorfinB76 72 64▲▲+830-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best76 72 64BLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 72 64
LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Figures are climbing: 64, 72, 76 over its last three.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 5d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 1m D MSW 6th/10 -9¼L 76 89-1 b 2w;paused 1/2;inside 9/18 LRC 6f D MSW 3rd/5 -4½L 72 23-1 b Bmpd early;2w;weakened 6/21 LRC 5f D MSW 5th/6 -9½L 64 16-1 b Off slow;2wd;no impact 2BliksemK. Frey · J. MullinsFrey · MullinsB78 76 75►@trip 786-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady78 76 75@trip 78B1Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 76 75
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7. A 78 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 4d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1m T MSW 4th/7 -2L 78 5.0-1 2w-3w-ins;ins;willngly 9/4 DMR 1m T MSW 4th/10 -1L 76 3.4-1 Pull;check5/16;bpd1/16 8/1 DMR 5f T MSW 2nd/6 -3½L 75 4.1-1 Crowded early;2-4wide 3Magic Time▼V. Espinoza · M. McCarthyEspinoza · McCarthyB676-1Fair 10-19%
—67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 794 WORKS IN 30 DAYSClass relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 5½f D MSW 9th/10 -10L 67 11-1 Chased 3wide; tired 4Virevolte▼A. Ayuso · R. BaltasAyuso · BaltasC63@trip 6315-1Fair 20-15%
—63@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 794 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Finished 9th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DMR, beaten 12 lengths.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/4 DMR 1m T MSW 9th/10 -12L 63 29-1 b Never involved 5Character▲▲A. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerA83 635-1Fair 7-112%
—83 63A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 79▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 83 63
▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 79▲ Lone speed on early paceGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 79 next best.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 SA 6f T MSW 3rd/10 -2L 83 33-1 b Inside; gained 3rd 9/5 DMR 6f D rMoc150000 7th/9 -5½L 63 2.5-1 b Bothered st;climb;4-2w 6Federation▲J. Spencer · M. McCarthySpencer · McCarthyA79 59@trip 795-2Fair 4-120%
—79 59@trip 79A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 793Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 59
▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at SA. Best recent figure of 79 sits right around the 79 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1m T MSW 2nd/7 -1½L 79 15-1 b 3-4-2w;2w;angled;rally 8/15 DMR 5½f D MSW 8th/8 -15L 59 26-1 3-4wide; no impact 7AbsolutionR. Gonzalez · B. BaffertGonzalez · BaffertA78 73@trip 784-1Fair 5-117%
—78 73@trip 78A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 73
Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time. Beaten 3 lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 5 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1m T MSW 3rd/7 -3L 78 4.4-1 b Inside; gained 3rd 8/15 DMR 5½f D MSW 5th/8 -8½L 73 7.1-1 b Bothered rivals early 8MackinawD. Van · R. MandellaVan · Mandella?5-1Fair 10-19%
—Debut?Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
First career start, by Justify out of Moviemaker. Debut for a trainer who is 16% with first-timers, over 81 starts.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By Justify out of Moviemaker (Curlin)Trainer R. Mandella: 1st-time starters: 16% wins, 41% in the money (81 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 41% in the money (80 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 41% in the money (231 starts)Jockey D. Van in turf: 8 wins from 63 (13%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 SA 6f 1:13.20 handily 1/2 ● bullet 10/17 SA 5f :58.80 handily 1/15 ● bullet 10/11 SA 5f :59.60 handily 3/15 9/25 SA 5f :58.00 handily 1/5 ● bullet 9/18 SA 4f :47.80 handily 3/17 9KlaeboA. Lezcano · M. GlattLezcano · GlattC7530-1Fair 20-14%
—75CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 75
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. 8th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 4d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 SA 6f T MSW 8th/10 -5½L 75 10-1 b Inside; no response 10Shake For OneT. Pereira · P. OviedoPereira · Oviedo?30-1Fair 50-12%
—Debut?Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Unraced, but it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 23, in :47.00. On Oct 14 it was 2nd of 14 at 5F (1:00.00).
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By Tacitus out of Suburb (City Zip)Trainer P. Oviedo: 1st-time starters: 7% wins, 27% in the money (15 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 33% wins, 33% in the money (3 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 25% in the money (12 starts)Jockey T. Pereira in turf: 16 wins from 193 (8%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 SA 4f :47.00 handily 1/20 ● bullet 10/14 SA 5f 1:00.00 handily 2/14 10/7 SA 4f :50.40 handily 7/15 9/30 SA 4f :49.20 handily 9/17 9/23 SA 4f :48.80 handily 17/23
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWL · RACE 6
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #2 Bliksem (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 78 · 76 · 75. Backup is #7 Absolution at 4-1. Use #6 Federation in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 FEDERATION (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #6 FEDERATION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.6%).
- #7 ABSOLUTION — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.8%).
- #2 BLIKSEM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 11.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 CURLIN TORNADO (30-1) — our fair 3.3% is above the morning line's 2.6%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG F OF THE SUNSET SIX
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