R4 SWL · Gldikova Stakes (G3)

★ Distance horse: #4 Little Jamie (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 93 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1. 1Miss Nightfall▼J. Spencer · J. ThomasSpencer · ThomasB79@trip 793-1Fair 4-120%—79@trip 79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 861

   Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79

   ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86

   Jockey J P Spencer 14% career · Trainer Jonathan Thomas 36% career

   Also today · Jockey R5: You Trust Me 30-1, R6: Poor Connection 9-2 · Trainer this race: As Catch Can 20-1, this race: Ambaya 4-1

   WON LAST

   Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at SAR. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

   EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

   TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5-6w uppr; edged away), and the figure already reflects it.

   WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 14d ago

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	Won/6 by 1	79	2.1-1	L	5-6w uppr; edged away
   6/17	ASC	1m T	Knsngtn Pl158k	2nd/24	—	12-1
   4/28	GTY	7f T	Brtsh Stlln33k	5th/7	—	1.9-1

2. 2As Catch CanR. Gonzalez · J. ThomasGonzalez · ThomasC85 83 81►≡@trip 8120-1Fair 30-13%► Steady85 83 81 ≡@trip 81C

   Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 83 81

   Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Jonathan Thomas 36% career

   Also today · Jockey R6: Prince Dolce 4-1 · Trainer this race: Miss Nightfall 3-1, this race: Ambaya 4-1

   180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

   Back after 307 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Runs for $100,000 today after a $300,000 race last time.

   EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

   WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.40 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   12/28	SA	1¼m T	AmrcnOks G1	9th/11 -5¾L	85	14-1		Ins;ins-3w;angled late
   9/6	CNL	1⅛m T	OldDmnOak Stk	Won/8 by 1	83	16-1		Patient;rail bid;game
   7/19	DMR	1m T	SnClmntH G2	6th/9 -5L	81	40-1		2wd-ins;ins;no threat

3. 3May Day Ready▲D. Van · R. MandellaVan · MandellaB88 94 89►≡@trip 895-1Fair 6-114%► Steady88 94 89 ≡@trip 89B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 863

   Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–94 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 94 89

   ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86

   Jockey Dyke Drayden Van · Trainer Richard E Mandella 36% career

   Also today · Jockey R5: Beautiful Dawn 15-1, R6: None Above The Law 8-1

   Purse drops from $200,000 to $100,000 against its last start. Back to a mile off a 1 1/4 miles race.

   EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

   WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/3	SA	1¼m T	RodeoDr G2	7th/11 -7¾L	88	5.9-1	b	2wd;2-3wd;angled out
   9/6	KD	1 1/16 T	frOneDreamr Stk	Won/2	94	0.7-1	b	Broke in;pulled away
   7/25	DMR	1m T	frOsunitas Stk	3rd/7 -1½L	89	4.1-1		Ins;aim2-3wd;willingly

4. 4Little Jamie▲▼★LST. Pereira · S. Joseph Jr.Pereira · Joseph Jr.B87 93 87►@trip 9310-1Fair 12-17%► Steady87 93 87@trip 93B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 93LS

   Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 93 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 93 87

   ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 93LS

   Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

   Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

   Also today · Jockey R5: Lihue Princess 30-1, R6: Midnight Mammoth 30-1 · Trainer R1: City Minute 2-1

   4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

   Figure of 93 on the record sits above the 86 par. Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at KD.

   EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

   WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   9/3	KD	1m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	87	3.9-1	b L	Trck 3w;held off foe
   8/16	GP	1m T	Handicap	2nd/7 -1L	93	4.3-1	b L	4wd; led late; caught
   5/16	GP	1m T	MonroeB100k	3rd/8 -2½L	87	18-1	b	Bid btw 3/8; willing

5. 5Bojaca Blessing▲H. Berrios · J. D'AngeloBerrios · D'AngeloA97 92 82▲▲+13@trip 815-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best97 92 82@trip 81A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 86

   Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 92 82

   ▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 86

   Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ hot

   Also today · Jockey R5: Free Closer 7-2, R6: Stylishlyacclaimed 6-1 · Trainer R1: Mia Familia 7-2, R3: Khozalite 12-1

   3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

   Has moved up each time out, 82 to 92 to 97. Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 96 for the next best.

   EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

   WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   9/7	DMR	1⅛m T	JCMabee G2	3rd/10 -2½L	97	24-1	b	Stalk ins-2wd;held 3rd
   7/23	DMR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k b	Won/9 by 2	92	10-1	b L	Lost path st; ins-2wd
   6/19	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	Won/6	82	0.9-1	b L	Chase;2p;kick clear

6. 6Raw Ability▲A. Lezcano · J. SadlerLezcano · SadlerC87 86 89►≡@trip 9012-1Fair 15-16%► Steady87 86 89 ≡@trip 90C▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86

   Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 89

   ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86

   Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career ★ hot

   Also today · Trainer R6: Cali Cat 20-1

   WON LAST

   Has won 4 of 9 going today's distance. Winner of a 6-horse optional claiming race at SA last time.

   EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

   WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/2	SA	1m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/6 by 1½	87	4.2-1	L	Rail rally; led; held
   8/21	DMR	1m T	OC 100k b	3rd/4 -2L	86	0.6-1	L	Ins;ins-2w;evenly late
   7/25	DMR	1m T	frOsunitas Stk	4th/7 -2½L	89	7.3-1		Ins-2w;angled;miss3rd

7. 7Ambaya▲E. Esquivel · J. ThomasEsquivel · ThomasA89 81 88▲+7@trip 884-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +7 · career best89 81 88@trip 88A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 862

   Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 81 88

   ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86

   Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career · Trainer Jonathan Thomas 36% career ★ hot

   Also today · Jockey R5: Palo Alto Baby 15-1 · Trainer this race: Miss Nightfall 3-1, this race: As Catch Can 20-1

   180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

   307 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Cuts back from 1 1/4 miles to a mile.

   EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

   WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   12/28	SA	1¼m T	AmrcnOks G1	Won/11 by ¾	89	13-1		Ins;bid btwn1/8;dug in
   11/24	DMR	1m T	OC 50k n1x	4th/11 -6½L	81	0.7-1	L	Bpd/took up st;pulled
   10/30	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	2nd/10 -1L	88	5.0-1	L	Hop;ins;bid btw;denied

8. 8Princesa MocheA. Ayuso · D. O'NeillAyuso · O'NeillC80 88 85▼-6≡@trip 8820-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -680 88 85 ≡@trip 88C

   Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 88 85

   Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career

   Also today · Jockey R5: Daytona Diamond 9-2, R6: Sir Rocket 6-1 · Trainer R6: Tribal 20-1

   3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

   Runs for $100,000 today after a $1,500,000 race last time. 4 wins from 10 starts at this distance.

   EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

   WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 6d back

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   9/5	KD	1m T	LadiesTf G2	7th/7 -7L	80	24-1		5-3w;drft out;no rally
   8/8	DMR	1 1/16 T	YlwRbbn G2	2nd/7	88	15-1		Met bid;clear;caught
   7/25	DMR	5f T	DasycutrH Stk	4th/8 -4¼L	85	19-1		Inside; mild rally

9. 9Mo' Em Down▲A. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerC85 84 81►≡15-1Fair 20-15%► Steady85 84 81 ≡C▲ Lone speed on early pace

   Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Last 3 figs 85 84 81

   ▲ Lone speed on early pace

   Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career

   Also today · Jockey R5: Ember Royale 6-5 · Trainer R5: Palo Alto Baby 15-1

   3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

   Goes a mile after running -6½ furlongs last time. Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at SA.

   EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

   WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   9/26	SA	-6½f T	JCHarris G3	3rd/9 -2L	85	10-1	b	Inside bid;outkicked
   9/4	DMR	5f T	Alw nc	Won/5 by 1½	84	0.8-1	b L	2wide; wore down rival
   5/9	SA	-6½f T	Senorita G3	9th/10 -2¼L	81	3.7-1		Ins-2w;blocked past1/8

10. 10Baltic Fire▲K. Frey · J. MullinsFrey · MullinsA96 90 90▲+6≡@trip 908-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +6 · career best96 90 90 ≡@trip 90A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 86

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 89–96 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 90 90

    ▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 86

    Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career · Trainer Jeff Mullins 34% career

    Also today · Jockey R5: Ms Grainger Danger 30-1, R6: Cali Cat 20-1

    4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time. A 96 in its last five clears the 86 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

    Last three races

    Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
    9/7	DMR	1⅛m T	JCMabee G2	4th/10 -3½L	96	18-1	b	Ins;2-3wd;denied 3rd
    7/25	DMR	1m T	frOsunitas Stk	Won/7	90	7.1-1	b	2w;bid3w;clear;lasted
    6/5	SA	1m T	OC 80k b	Won/10 by ½	90	4.8-1	b L	2w;aim3wd;best late

11. 11Lady in ParisV. Espinoza · P. DamatoEspinoza · DamatoC79 83 84▼-415-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -479 83 84C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 79 83 84

    Jockey V Espinoza 35% career · Trainer Philip Damato

    Also today · Jockey R5: Tashie 30-1, R6: Magnify 3-1

    4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

    Worked 5F in :59.20 on Oct 17, 3rd of 15 at the distance. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DMR at 1.6-1.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

    Last three races

    Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
    9/6	DMR	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n1x	Won/9 by hd	79	1.6-1	L	2w;tip 3wd;hand urging
    7/25	DMR	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n1x	Won/10 by 1	83	2.0-1	L	Ins;bid btw;drftd late
    5/25	SA	1⅛m T	OC 50k n1x	2nd/6 -¾L	84	3.1-1	L	2wd;bid btwn;edged

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.