Pick sheet

Race 17:12 PM OClm 50000

5F · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Itza Boss, is 19% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Itza Boss ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -5 ≡ Steady 82–89 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · Dist 6: 3-2-0 · best fig at 5f turf 89 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	7th/11 -½L	82	3.4-1	b L	Chase;2p;wkn
9/12	GP	5f D	BUmphTSptB100k	5th/8 -1½L	85	10-1	b	Tacked; lacked kick
2/8	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/7	88	3.1-1	b L	Duel 3wd; clear; drvng

Case: Last out 7th/11 -½L in the Handicap at GP. Last Brisnet figures 82-85-88. Best at today's distance 89. 3-for-6 at the distance. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Contender #9 Sabian ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer V. Barboza Jr. · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · best fig at 5f turf 85 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/6 by 3½	92	3.7-1	b L	Tight 3/8; late rally
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/8	79	2.4-1	b L	Bumped st; rail rally
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -2L	81	2.8-1	b L	Stalked btwn; evenly

Case: Last out won in the OC50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 92-79-81. Best at today's distance 92. 1-for-4 at the distance. V. Barboza Jr. / D. Herrera.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Use #4 Sosua Summer ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ★ Best at 5f turf: 93 ▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83 Last out won in the OC50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 94-85-78. Best at today's distance 94. 4-for-17 at the distance. V. Barboza Jr. / J. Torrealba. Knock: Off 63 days. Never raced at Sunset Six.

Jockey J. Torrealba · Trainer V. Barboza Jr. · Dist 17: 4-5-1 · best fig at 5f turf 93 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/3 by 1½	94	1.3-1	b L	Stalked; up in time
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	85	3.3-1	b L	Good finish outside
5/30	GP	5f D	OC 62k b	7th/7 -6½L	78	17-1	b L	2p;swung 6p str;no bid

Longshot #7 Giant Teddy ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -4 ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey H. Figueroa · Trainer A. Puckett · Dist 5: 0-4-1 · best fig at 5f turf 88 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	5th/6 -1½L	84	3.2-1	L	Chased 2w; no bid
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	2nd/3	93	1.3-1	L	Off slow; in tight
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1xc	3rd/7 -1½L	83	1.3-1	L	3w bid; outkicked

Case: Last out 5th/6 -1½L in the OC50000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 84-93-83. Best at today's distance 93. 0-for-5 at the distance. A. Puckett / H. Figueroa.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #8, #9 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #1, #3, #6

Angles: #2 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Last fig 94 at/above par 83 · #5 Last fig 92 at/above par 83 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86) · #7 Last fig 84 at/above par 83 · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Last fig 90 at/above par 83 · #9 Last fig 92 at/above par 83

R1 SWL · Optional Claiming $50,000

7:12 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $35,000 · 9 runners7:12 PM · 5f Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $35K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Xy SpeedC. Cedeno · M. LermanCedeno · LermanC78 89 74▼-6@trip 926-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -678 89 74@trip 92C

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 89 74

Jockey Carol Cedeno 26% career · Trainer Michael Lerman 28% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Apache One Six 12-1

60D LAYOFF

A big drop, handicap to optional claiming, and worth asking why. A 91 in its last five clears the 83 par for this level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbled st; no rally), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	GP	5f T	Handicap	6th/7 -6L	78	4.7-1	b L	Bobbled st;no rally
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 50k	2nd/5 -6L	89	1.9-1	b L	Shuffle 7/16;re-bid 3w
6/25	CNL	5½f T	OC 50k n2x	7th/9 -1½L	74	2.1-1	b L	Inside; needed bid

2Itza Boss▲L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB82 85 88▼-5≡@trip 893-1Fair 4-119%▼ Down -582 85 88 ≡@trip 89B▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 85 88

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career

Also today · Jockey R2: King Cousin B 7-2, R3: Ciborio 9-2 · Trainer this race: Itza Lock 12-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2, R3: Won For Lou 8-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 85 to 82. Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	7th/11 -½L	82	3.4-1	b L	Chase;2p;wkn
9/12	GP	5f D	BUmphTSptB100k	5th/8 -1½L	85	10-1	b	Tacked; lacked kick
2/8	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/7	88	3.1-1	b L	Duel 3wd; clear; drvng

3Zevi's ZoneJ. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakC81 79 71▲+6@trip 8030-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +6 · career best81 79 71@trip 80C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 71

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Code Three 12-1, R3: Laudable 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP at 3.2-1. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	5f D	Clm 35k b	Won/7	81	3.2-1	b L	Stmbl'd st; 4wd rally
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 75k	6th/7 -7½L	79	23-1	b L	Stumbl'd st; 5wd trip
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	6th/8 -2½L	71	22-1	b L	Chased 3w turn; no bid

4Sosua Summer▲★J. Torrealba · V. Barboza Jr.Torrealba · Barboza Jr.A94 85 78▲▲+12@trip 934-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best94 85 78@trip 93A▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 933

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 78

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 83★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza

Also today · Jockey R2: Boyhood Dream 5-2, R3: Squire 8-1 · Trainer this race: Sabian 9-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Tops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 93 for the next best.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 27 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/3 by 1½	94	1.3-1	b L	Stalked; up in time
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	85	3.3-1	b L	Good finish outside
5/30	GP	5f D	OC 62k b	7th/7 -6½L	78	17-1	b L	2p;swung 6p str;no bid

5Itza Lock▲Y. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB92 81 79▲▲+13@trip 9112-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best92 81 79@trip 91B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 81 79

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Ford Roadster 3-1, R3: Brushfire 6-1 · Trainer this race: Itza Boss 3-1, R3: Ciborio 9-2, R3: Won For Lou 8-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: optional claiming last time, optional claiming today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rail bid; shut off 1/4. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	5f D	OC 75k	3rd/7 -2L	92	3.9-1	b L	Rail bid; shut off 1/4
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 75k n1x	3rd/7 -4½L	81	6.0-1	b L	Swung 5w;willingly
6/26	GP	5½f D	OC 75k n1x	3rd/6 -6½L	79	1.4-1	b L	Bmp btw; willingly

6Axthelm▼J. Ocasio · R. DibonaOcasio · DibonaC75 86 89▼▼-13@trip 908-1Fair 10-18%▼▼ Big drop -1375 86 89@trip 90C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 89

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 86)

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career · Trainer Robert S Dibona 34% career

Figure of 89 on the record sits above the 83 par. Figures have slipped: 89, 86, 75 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	10th/11 -7L	75	14-1	b L	Bmp brk;svgnd;no bid
8/30	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	10th/12 -6½L	86	47-1	b	Chased;4-6w;fanned 8wd
7/4	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	7th/11 -5¾L	89	30-1	b	Chased 4-2w; no kick

7Giant Teddy▲▼LSH. Figueroa · A. PuckettFigueroa · PuckettB84 93 83▼-4@trip 888-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -484 93 83@trip 88B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 93 83
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career · Trainer Andrea L Puckett 18% career
★ FASTEST WORK
Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 15 (3F in :35.60), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 5f D OC 50k 5th/6 -1½L 84 3.2-1 L Chased 2w; no bid
8/30 GP 5f D OC 50k 2nd/3 93 1.3-1 L Off slow; in tight
7/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1xc 3rd/7 -1½L 83 1.3-1 L 3w bid; outkicked

8Test Factor▲N. Juarez · R. CrichtonJuarez · CrichtonA90 78 87▲▲+8@trip 875-1Fair 6-113%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best90 78 87@trip 87A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 78 87

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 83

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career

★ FASTEST WORK

3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 6. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	3rd/6 -1L	90	11-1	b L	Rallied 3w; outkicked
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/8 -2L	78	4.5-1	b L	Re-bid 4w; willingly
7/25	GP	5f T	OC 50k	4th/5 -4L	87	2.0-1	b L	Rushed;flattened out

9Sabian▲D. Herrera · V. Barboza Jr.Herrera · Barboza Jr.A92 79 81▲▲+12@trip 859-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best92 79 81@trip 85A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 832

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 79 81

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 83

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza

Also today · Jockey R2: Road To Midnight 4-1, R3: Venezuelan Hope 5-1 · Trainer this race: Sosua Summer 4-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5f D	OC 50k	Won/6 by 3½	92	3.7-1	b L	Tight 3/8; late rally
8/24	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/8	79	2.4-1	b L	Bumped st; rail rally
7/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -2L	81	2.8-1	b L	Stalked btwn; evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWL · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

7:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 19%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Itza Boss (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 82 · 85 · 88. Backup is #9 Sabian at 9-2. Use #4 Sosua Summer in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ITZA BOSS (3-1) — our number agrees.
#2 ITZA BOSS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.6%).
#4 SOSUA SUMMER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 15.7%).
#9 SABIAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #2 Itza Boss; pressure from #8 Test Factor, #7 Giant Teddy.

Lead

none

Press

2Itza Boss968Test Factor957Giant Teddy934Sosua Summer906Axthelm79

Stalk

3Zevi's Zone945Itza Lock939Sabian911Xy Speed82

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Itza Boss

Test Factor

Zevi's Zone

Itza Lock

Giant Teddy

Sabian

Sosua Summer

Xy Speed

Axthelm

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Xy Speed

Sosua Summer

Itza Lock

Zevi's Zone

Giant Teddy

Test Factor

Sabian

Itza Boss

Axthelm

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