Pick sheet

Race 38:12 PM Clm 35000bLate Pick 4 starts

1 Mi · Turf · 13 entered. Our model's top pick, Ciborio, is 14% to win (morning line implies 12%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Ciborio ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 75–83

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · Dist 5: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1m turf 78 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/6 -2L	77	14-1	b L	Stalked pace; gave way
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7 by ½	83	2.0-1	b L	Inside bid; clear
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/9 -3¾L	75	13-1	b L	5w into lane; mildly

Case: Last out 6th/6 -2L in the OC25000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-83-75. Best at today's distance 78. 0-for-5 at the distance. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Contender #8 Venezuelan Hope ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer S. Klesaris · Dist 9: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1m turf 81 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	2nd/6 -2½L	78	3.9-1	b L	Re-bid for place
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	Won/5 by 1½	85	2.5-1	b L	Shuffl'd st; 4wd rally
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/8 -4¾L	78	10-1	b L	Swung 5wd; mild rally

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC35000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 78-85-78. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-9 at the distance. S. Klesaris / D. Herrera.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six. 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #13 Always True ML 3-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 77–83 Last out 2nd in the OC20000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 81-83-77. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-2 at the distance. D. Zanelli / E. Gonzalez. Knock: Off 76 days. Never raced at Sunset Six.

Jockey E. Gonzalez · Trainer D. Zanelli · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1m turf 81 · 76 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/17	GP	1m T	OC 20k	2nd/7 -2L	81	6.6-1	b L	Between; late bid
7/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	Won/7	83	12-1	b L	Rail bid; drew clear
6/21	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	4th/9 -6¾L	77	22-1	b L	Angled 5w 1/4;improved

Longshot #3 Won For Lou ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–83

Jockey C. Gil · Trainer J. D'Angelo · Dist 5: 2-0-0 · best fig at 1m turf 83 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	sAlw52000n1x	7th/9 -3¼L	77	4.3-1	b L	No bid; evenly;
8/29	GP	1 1/16 D	BearsDenB100k	6th/6 -3¼L	79	4.2-1	b	Rally turn; flattened
4/18	SA	-6½f T	JShear Stk	5th/5 -5L	76	16-1	b	3-2wide; weakened

Case: Last out 7th/9 -3¼L in the sAlw52000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-79-76. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-5 at the distance. J. D'Angelo / C. Gil.

Knock: Never raced at Sunset Six.

Narrowing the field: A #8, #12, #13 · B #5, #6, #11 · C #1, #2, #3, #4, #7, #9, #10

Angles: #1 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75) · #6 Last fig 84 at/above par 83 · #10 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #11 Last fig 83 at/above par 83

R3 SWL · Claiming $35,000

8:12 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $35,000 · 13 runners8:12 PM · 1m Turf · 13 runners

Upcoming $35K · Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Classic Equation▼▼S. Leon · C. NarvaezLeon · NarvaezC57 75 69▼▼-11@trip 6420-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1157 75 69@trip 64C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 75 69

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career · Trainer Carlos Narvaez 26% career

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best recent figure is 75, well under the 83 par for this level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m D	Clm 35k b	7th/7 -9L	57	24-1	b L	Through after half;
2/4	TAM	1 1/16 T	MCL 32k	Won/10	75	20-1	b L	Bid1/4;2p2nd;kick clr
1/2	TAM	1 1/16 T	MCL 16k	3rd/12 -4L	69	12-1	b L	Ins; angle1/4; 4p lane

2CiborioL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloC77 83 75►≡@trip 789-2Fair 6-114%► Steady77 83 75 ≡@trip 78C1

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 75

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Itza Boss 3-1, R2: King Cousin B 7-2 · Trainer R1: Itza Boss 3-1, R1: Itza Lock 12-1, this race: Won For Lou 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from optional claiming to $35,000 claiming. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 3; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/6 -2L	77	14-1	b L	Stalked pace; gave way
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7 by ½	83	2.0-1	b L	Inside bid; clear
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/9 -3¾L	75	13-1	b L	5w into lane; mildly

3Won For LouLSC. Gil · J. D'AngeloGil · D'AngeloC77 79 76►≡@trip 838-1Fair 10-19%► Steady77 79 76 ≡@trip 83CLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 79 76

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career

Also today · Trainer R1: Itza Boss 3-1, R1: Itza Lock 12-1, this race: Ciborio 9-2

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. 7th last time, 3¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 13; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	sAlw52000n1x	7th/9 -3¼L	77	4.3-1	b L	No bid; evenly;
8/29	GP	1 1/16 D	BearsDenB100k	6th/6 -3¼L	79	4.2-1	b	Rally turn; flattened
4/18	SA	-6½f T	JShear Stk	5th/5 -5L	76	16-1	b	3-2wide; weakened

4BrushfireY. Torres · E. CorderoTorres · CorderoC77 75 75►≡@trip 766-1Fair 8-111%► Steady77 75 75 ≡@trip 76C

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–77 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 75

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career · Trainer Eniel Cordero 21% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Itza Lock 12-1, R2: Ford Roadster 3-1

60D LAYOFF

Class relief: optional claiming last time, $35,000 claiming today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	GP	1m D	OC 25k n1x	5th/6 -4½L	77	14-1	b L	Went even; no threat;
7/13	GP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	3rd/7 -10L	75	3.5-1	b L	Wide trip; stayed on
3/1	GP	1m T	MCL 17kc	Won/10	75	1.0-1	b L	Carried 5wd into 1st

5OperatnthunderboltF. Vasquez Jr. · B. TessoreVasquez Jr. · TessoreB81 77 79►≡@trip 838-1Fair 12-17%► Steady81 77 79 ≡@trip 83B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 79

Jockey Felix Jr Vasquez 33% career · Trainer Bruno Tessore 17% career

★ FASTEST WORK

Off 56 days since the last start. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	3rd/5	81	4.1-1	b L	Loomed;led;outfinished
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	5th/8 -3¼L	77	10-1	b L	4wd; urged 3/8;kept on
7/19	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	4th/6 -2¾L	79	9.5-1	b L	6-w upper;not enough

6Camigol▲M. Meneses · A. SanoMeneses · SanoB84 83 82►≡8-1Fair 12-18%► Steady84 83 82 ≡B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–84 · Last 3 figs 84 83 82

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Tweed 8-1

Last out was 2nd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 22; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k b	2nd/6 -4½L	84	3.5-1	b L	Good gain; not enough
9/4	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	Won/6	83	2.3-1	b L	4-3w;bid 1/4;dug in
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	3rd/5 -3L	82	3.1-1	b L	Pulled btwn; track ins

7LaudableJ. Morelos · S. DwoskinMorelos · DwoskinC66 73 77▼▼-10@trip 7910-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1066 73 77@trip 79C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 73 77

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career · Trainer Steven Dwoskin 25% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Zevi's Zone 30-1, R2: Code Three 12-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 77, 73, 66 over its last three. Finished 6th in a 6-horse allowance race at GP, beaten 11 lengths.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	sAlw52000n1x	6th/6 -11L	66	20-1	b L	Off pace;2p;no bid
7/18	GP	1m T	sAlw65000n1x	7th/7 -5L	73	13-1	L	Settled; faded stretch
6/19	GP	1 1/16 D	sAlw65000n1x	4th/5 -4½L	77	13-1	L	Outside;2-3p;no kick

8Venezuelan HopeD. Herrera · S. KlesarisHerrera · KlesarisA78 85 78►@trip 815-1Fair 7-112%► Steady78 85 78@trip 81A2

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 85 78

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career · Trainer Steve Klesaris 29% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Sabian 9-2, R2: Road To Midnight 4-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Worked 4F in :48.40 on May 17, 3rd of 21 at the distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 154 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	2nd/6 -2½L	78	3.9-1	b L	Re-bid for place
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k n2x	Won/5 by 1½	85	2.5-1	b L	Shuffl'd st; 4wd rally
8/15	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/8 -4¾L	78	10-1	b L	Swung 5wd; mild rally

9Apache One SixC. Cedeno · R. CoyCedeno · CoyC80 76 76▲+3≡@trip 8012-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +3 · career best80 76 76 ≡@trip 80C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 76
Jockey Carol Cedeno 26% career · Trainer Ronald Coy 29% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Xy Speed 6-1
Picks up 12 pounds from its last start. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k 4th/7 -1L 80 9.2-1 b L Duel;svd gnd;gave way
8/23 GP 1 1/16 T MCL 25k Won/7 76 2.2-1 b L Sustained rally 3wd
7/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 2nd/8 76 1.9-1 b L Attnd pace;led;nailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	OC 35k	4th/7 -1L	80	9.2-1	b L	Duel;svd gnd;gave way
8/23	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 25k	Won/7	76	2.2-1	b L	Sustained rally 3wd
7/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	2nd/8	76	1.9-1	b L	Attnd pace;led;nailed

10Skyliner▼S. Camacho Jr. · D. DonaldsonCamacho Jr. · DonaldsonC77 69 70▲▲+9@trip 6430-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best77 69 70@trip 64C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 69 70

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Samuel Jr Camacho 35% career · Trainer Debra Donaldson 22% career

A step up in company: $17,500 claiming before, $35,000 claiming today. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Mar 28, in :51.20.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1 1/16 T	Clm 17k n2l	6th/10 -6L	77	34-1	b L	Went evenly; no bid
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 17k	Won/5	69	6.4-1	b L	4p;bid1/4;kick clear
8/23	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 25k	5th/7 -2½L	70	37-1	b L	Steadied early; evenly

11Squire▲J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB83 74 81▲+4@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +483 74 81@trip 83B▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 81

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Sosua Summer 4-1, R2: Boyhood Dream 5-2

Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 20 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	8th/9 -5L	83	21-1	b L	Chased inside; faded
3/6	GP	1m T	sAlw54000n1x	8th/8 -6½L	74	5.5-1	b L	3-2wd; no response
2/1	GP	5½f D	sAlw54000n1x	3rd/7 -3½L	81	2.0-1	b L	2-3p;4w upper;mildly

12Alinao ForeverJ. Santos · D. ZanelliSantos · ZanelliA82 83 78▲+6@trip 838-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +682 83 78@trip 83A

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 78

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Always True 3-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Winner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at GP last time. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $35,000 claiming now.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd rally; held sway. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 12k	Won/9	82	10-1	b L	5wd rally; held sway
9/27	GP	1m T	OC 20k	6th/7 -7½L	83	28-1	b L	Trailed; no threat;
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k b	Won/8	78	6.5-1	b L	Repel bid;held well

13Always TrueE. Gonzalez · D. ZanelliGonzalez · ZanelliA81 83 77►≡@trip 813-1Fair 8-112%► Steady81 83 77 ≡@trip 81A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 83 77

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Alinao Forever 8-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A 76-day gap since its last race. An 83 top number against a 83 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/17	GP	1m T	OC 20k	2nd/7 -2L	81	6.6-1	b L	Between; late bid
7/20	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	Won/7	83	12-1	b L	Rail bid; drew clear
6/21	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	4th/9 -6¾L	77	22-1	b L	Angled 5w 1/4;improved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWL · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $35,000

Field

13 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

8:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 14%

Claiming $35,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Ciborio (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 77 · 83 · 75. Backup is #8 Venezuelan Hope at 5-1. Use #13 Always True in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #13 ALWAYS TRUE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#13 ALWAYS TRUE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 16.2%).
#2 CIBORIO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 11.8%).
#8 VENEZUELAN HOPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 10.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Apache One Six; pressure from #5 Operatnthunderbolt, #4 Brushfire.

Lead

none

Press

9Apache One Six915Operatnthunderbolt894Brushfire868Venezuelan Hope822Ciborio7613Always True70

Stalk

11Squire893Won For Lou851Classic Equation796Camigol7612Alinao Forever74

7Laudable8210Skyliner75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Apache One Six

Operatnthunderbolt

Squire

Brushfire

Won For Lou

Venezuelan Hope

Classic Equation

Ciborio

Camigol

Alinao Forever

Always True

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Laudable

Skyliner

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