WRD · RACE 5
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $10,000
Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 250 Yards: 13.0
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #1 Run Cartel (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 83 · 80 · 58. Backup is #6 Dragon Lew at 20-1. Use #3 Lightning Streaken in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 83. Figures are climbing: 58, 80, 83 over its last three.
Class relief: maiden claiming $15,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at WRD, beaten 4½ lengths.
Has moved up each time out, 61 to 71 to 80. Last out was 7th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at WRD.
0 for 7 at today's distance. Maiden through 7 starts.
Freshened 151 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in maiden claiming $12,500; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper.
Moves up from maiden claiming $7,500 to maiden claiming $10,000. Beaten 1½ lengths for 4th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at WRD.
Worked 1F in :11.60 on Aug 22, 2nd of 24 at the distance. 3rd last time, a head back, in a field of 10.
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 RUN CARTEL (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #1 RUN CARTEL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.8% to their 27.3%).
- #7 JS DASHER HERO — our #7 number, about right at the windows (22.7% to their 23.4%).
- #4 CANDYS PURSUIT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 20.5%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #6 DRAGON LEW (20-1) — our fair 5.2% is above the morning line's 3.9%; supported by: trouble in 2 of last 4 (last: "Early trouble;weakened") — chronically unlucky; the figures keep under-crediting a horse that never gets a clean run
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Run Cartel, #2 Hott Glory, #3 Lightning Streaken.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a soft pace can let a forward type loose — protect with a saver on top. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Place / Show
#1 Run Cartel · #6 Dragon Lew · #3 Lightning Streaken
Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.
Exacta — BOX
#1 Run Cartel · #6 Dragon Lew · #3 Lightning Streaken
Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.
Trifecta — BOX
#1 Run Cartel · #6 Dragon Lew · #3 Lightning Streaken
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Bet types offered at this track →
$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE
(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / (.50) PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8)