1Proletariat▲▲K. Frey · J. MullinsFrey · MullinsA99 95 95▲+7@trip 993-5Fair 7-542%
▲ Up +7 · career best99 95 95@trip 99A▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 99 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 95 95
▲ Last fig 99 at/above par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTLast start was a win, in an 8-horse race at DMR at 0.7-1. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 99, with 96 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 DMR 1⅛m T DMrDerby G2 Won/8 99 0.7-1 b Pace ins; held safely 7/17 DMR 1m T OceansidH Stk Won/11 95 6.4-1 b Speed; widened 5/15 SA 6f T OC 80k n1x Won/5 95 1.5-1 b L 2-3w/bpd1/4;best late 2Melismatic▲K. Kimura · P. DamatoKimura · DamatoA95 90 84▲▲+10@trip 956-1Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 90 84@trip 95A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 872Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 95 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 90 84
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 8760D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRuns for $200,000 today after a $300,000 race last time. Figures are climbing: 84, 90, 95 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 DMR 1⅛m T DMrDerby G2 5th/8 -5¾L 95 8.2-1 Ins;2w;angl;no respons 7/19 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x Won/7 by 1½ 90 9.5-1 L Ins-2w;wore down rival 5/2 SA 1m T MSW Won/10 84 4.2-1 L Bid inside;drove clear 3Tribalism▲J. Spencer · M. McCarthySpencer · McCarthyB94 90 84▲▲+12@trip 948-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best94 90 84@trip 94B▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 873Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 94 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 90 84
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 8760D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigure of 94 on the record sits above the 87 par. Has moved up each time out, 84 to 90 to 94.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 DMR 1⅛m T DMrDerby G2 7th/8 -5¼L 94 9.8-1 Ins;steady nearing5/16 7/19 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x 2nd/7 90 2.4-1 L 3w;2w;cleared;outkckd 5/30 SA 1m T MSW Won/9 84 2.4-1 L Closest2path;edged clr 4EssosLSU. Rispoli · M. GlattRispoli · GlattB83 92 92▼▼-8@trip 7412-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -883 92 92@trip 74BLSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 92 92
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTComes in off a victory in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes gr2 today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 22d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 1¼m T OC 50k n1x Won/8 by 2½ 83 5.0-1 L 2w;ask3w;rally4deep;up 9/6 DMR 1m D ShrdBelif Stk 4th/7 -8½L 92 4.0-1 2wide turns; no rally 8/2 DMR 1m D MSW Won/5 by 2½ 92 3.9-1 L 2w;tip4w;rally;FTG 5Unrivaled Time▲J. Rosario · L. PowellRosario · PowellA96 84 89▲▲+10@trip 965-1Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best96 84 89@trip 96A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 87Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 96 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 84 89
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 8760D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSGets a new rider, Joel Rosario replacing Armando Ayuso. A 70-day gap since its last race.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; 3-5wd; missed 3rd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 DMR 1⅛m T DMrDerby G2 4th/8 -5¾L 96 13-1 b Ins;3-5wd;missed 3rd 7/17 DMR 1m T OceansidH Stk 8th/11 -10L 84 10-1 b Check/altered/bpd5/16 5/23 SA 1⅛m T sSnowChiefB125k Won/10 by 2½ 89 2.0-1 b Step slow;ins;3-4w;up 6Path to Power▲J. Hernandez · P. DamatoHernandez · DamatoB94 85 76▲▲+14@trip 856-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best94 85 76@trip 85B▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 87Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 76
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 87Also today · Jockey R2: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1, R3: Take Revenge 6-1 · Trainer this race: Melismatic 6-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSShortens up to 1 1/8 miles after going 1 3/8 miles. Moves up from optional claiming to stakes gr2.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Alter bit1/2; outkicked), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 DMR 1⅜m T OC 50k n1x 2nd/6 by hd 94 1.4-1 b L Alter bit1/2;outkicked 8/8 DMR 1⅛m T MSW Won/10 85 6.7-1 b L Gained2-5w;surged;FTG 5/30 SA 1m T MSW 6th/9 -5¾L 76 3.5-1 L 2w;swung out;no menace
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #1 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQZ · RACE 1
UPCOMINGTwil Drby Stakes (G2)
Stakes, for 3-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #1 Proletariat (early speed, M/L 3-5). Recent figures: 99 · 95 · 95. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Melismatic at 6-1. Use #3 Tribalism in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 PROLETARIAT (3-5) — but VULNERABLE: bounce risk — spiked to a new top last out, due to regress
- #1 PROLETARIAT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (45.1% to their 49.4%).
- #2 MELISMATIC — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 11.3%).
- #5 UNRIVALED TIME — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 13.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 TRIBALISM (8-1) — our fair 10.6% is above the morning line's 8.8%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Proletariat; pressure from #3 Tribalism; the shape helps #2 Melismatic, #3 Tribalism, #4 Essos; and works against #1 Proletariat.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 1 OF THE SANTA ANITA ALL TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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