1Kerry GoldK. Frey · D. AzcarateFrey · AzcarateC81 78 76▲+3≡30-1Fair 30-14%
▲ Up +381 78 76 ≡CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Last 3 figs 81 78 76
Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 SA 1m T sOC20000n1x 5th/11 -2L 81 60-1 L 3wd;loomed upper 9/4 DMR 6½f D sOC20000n1x 9th/12 -9½L 78 67-1 L Chased 5deep;weakened 8/16 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 4th/8 -3L 76 21-1 L 3deep; mild response 2Jimmy Winkfield▲J. Hernandez · S. KnappHernandez · KnappB93 73 76▲▲+18@trip 764-1Fair 7-113%
▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best93 73 76@trip 76B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 872Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 73 76
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 8760D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS169 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at SA.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/16 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 3rd/7 -1½L 93 7.3-1 b L Ins;rallied btwn late 4/26 SA 6f T sMdSpWt Won/10 by 1¾ 73 1.2-1 b L Off slow;2-3wd;rallied 3/28 SA 6½f T sMdSpWt 3rd/9 -3½L 76 4.2-1 b L Off slow;2-4wd;kept on 3Miles FinchH. Berrios · J. BondeBerrios · BondeC81 82 81▼-3≡@trip 8315-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -381 82 81 ≡@trip 83CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 81–88 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 81
CLASS DROPA step up in company: $25,000 claiming before, allowance today. Jeff Bonde takes over the training from John W Sadler.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbld/bpd hard st; ins), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 6½f T Clm 25k n2lc 2nd/8 -2L 81 0.9-1 b L Bobbld/bpd hard st;ins 9/6 DMR 5f T OC 50k 7th/10 -3¼L 82 11-1 b L 2-3w;bore out badly1/4 8/1 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 7th/11 -4½L 81 11-1 b L 4-5wide; no rally 4Frank Bullitt▲T. Baze · D. WinickBaze · WinickA90 87 96►@trip 873-1Fair 6-114%
► Steady90 87 96@trip 87A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 871Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 96
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87Has run 96 against a 87 par for the class. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 2nd/8 90 4.0-1 b L Duel ins;clear;nailed 8/14 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 2nd/9 -1½L 87 1.5-1 b L Ins-2w;tip3w;game btwn 7/17 DMR 6½f D sOC20000n1x Won/8 96 6.0-1 b L Brk out;outsd;cleared 5Moment of ValorLSA. Ayuso · P. EurtonAyuso · EurtonB84 91 83►≡@trip 8410-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady84 91 83 ≡@trip 84BLSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–91 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 91 83
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Last out was 2nd, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at SA. Best recent figure of 91 sits right around the 87 par.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 2nd/9 -2¾L 84 4.1-1 L Ins;rallied;too late 8/22 DMR 1 1/16 T sOC20000n1x 7th/12 -3½L 91 15-1 L Inside; no late kick 7/17 DMR 6½f D sOC20000n1x 4th/8 -5L 83 4.9-1 L Rushed on heels early 6Speed of Elon▼J. Valdivia Jr. · D. DunhamValdivia Jr. · DunhamC78 78 82►≡30-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady78 78 82 ≡C▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–82 · Last 3 figs 78 78 82
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 872nd of 10 at 3F on Oct 25, in :36.00. 6th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 6th/9 -3¾L 78 52-1 L Inside-2wide; no bid 9/5 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 10th/10 -7½L 78 55-1 L Inside; no impact 7/25 DMR 1m T sOC20000n1x 7th/8 -4L 82 41-1 L Inside; no response 7The G MD. Van · M. PuypeVan · PuypeC79 79 82►≡30-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady79 79 82 ≡CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–83 · Last 3 figs 79 79 82
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 15d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/14 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 6th/9 -5L 79 20-1 b L Crowded early;2-3wide 7/23 DMR 1m D sOC20000n1x 6th/8 -7½L 79 3.3-1 b L Bid3deep;2w/btwn;tired 5/25 SA 5½f D sOC20000n1x Won/9 82 5.7-1 b L Bid btwn;duel;gamely 8Going Nowhere▲▼W. Orantes · R. HansonOrantes · HansonC89 77 80▲▲+8@trip 8330-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best89 77 80@trip 83C▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 77 80
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWon last out in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 9 (:38.60), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 115 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T sMdSpWt Won/9 89 2.9-1 b L Bpd btwn3/8;bid3w;game 9/26 SA 1m T sMd50000 4th/10 77 2.4-1 b L Stalked;led;yielded 9/7 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt 4th/8 -½L 80 3.6-1 b L 2w;bid3deep;led;wknd 9Feeling LuckyM. Americano · B. KorinerAmericano · KorinerC76 94 87▼▼-8↕@trip 7212-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -876 94 87 ↕@trip 72CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–94 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 94 87
Figure of 94 on the record sits above the 87 par. Dropped in well back early last out, 11th of 11 at the first call.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 0)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 SA 1m T sOC20000n1x 11th/11 -9½L 76 2.3-1 b L Bpd;crowded brk;ins 8/22 DMR 1 1/16 T sOC20000n1x 2nd/12 94 25-1 b L Stalk;duel2w;drft late 7/24 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt Won/10 87 7.7-1 b L 2wd-inside;resolutely 10Third Beer▲J. Rosario · T. YakteenRosario · YakteenA88 83 85▲+5≡9-2Fair 8-110%
▲ Up +5 · career best88 83 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 87Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Last 3 figs 88 83 85
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 8760D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSBack after 162 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Runs for $67,000 today after a $125,000 race last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/23 SA 1⅛m T sSnowChiefB125k 4th/10 -2½L 88 8.0-1 b Ins;angled1/8;edgd3rd 4/2 SA 1m T OC 80k n1x 4th/5 -3L 83 3.6-1 b L Ins;bid3deep;flattened 2/21 SA 1m T sOC50000n1x Won/7 by 1½ 85 1.6-1 b L 2w-ins;shftd/bp midstr 11OwlK. Kimura · N. DrysdaleKimura · DrysdaleB86 87 84►≡@trip 815-1Fair 7-113%
► Steady86 87 84 ≡@trip 81B3Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 87 84
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJockey switch: Joel Rosario last out, Kazushi Kimura today. Last out was 3rd, 7 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 3rd/8 -7L 86 1.6-1 L 2wide; mild rally 9/5 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 2nd/10 -3½L 87 4.4-1 L 4-2w;angled out;miss 8/1 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 4th/11 -3L 84 8.3-1 b L Ins-2w;tip out;willing 12Grey's BoyU. Rispoli · V. CerinRispoli · CerinC83 83 75▲+4≡@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%
▲ Up +483 83 75 ≡@trip 83CCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 75
CLASS DROPWON LASTMoves up from $25,000 claiming to allowance. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 97).
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 6½f T Clm 25k n2l Won/8 83 1.7-1 b L Ins;cleared;held late 9/6 DMR 1⅛m T OC 50k 10th/12 -½L 83 38-1 b L Prss;vie btw;duel;wknd 8/1 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 10th/11 -7L 75 5.4-1 b L 4w;angled6w;no respons 13Got'm Cot'm▲T. Pereira · V. BrinkerhoffPereira · BrinkerhoffA95 83 99▲+5@trip 775-1Fair 8-111%
▲ Up +595 83 99@trip 77A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 83 99
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87WON LASTLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Owns the highest recent figure here at 99.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.SHARP LAST OUT 3deep; clear; going away last out, and it did it the right way.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 6f D sOC20000n1x Won/5 95 0.5-1 b L 3deep;clear;going away 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 3rd/9 -4¼L 83 4.3-1 b L Off slow/checked;2-3wd 9/4 DMR 6½f D sOC20000n1x 3rd/12 -4¼L 99 3.8-1 b L Inside-2wd; late surge
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQZ · RACE 2
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $67,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Frank Bullitt (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 90 · 87 · 96. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Jimmy Winkfield at 4-1. Use #11 Owl in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 FRANK BULLITT (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #4 FRANK BULLITT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.4%).
- #2 JIMMY WINKFIELD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.9%).
- #10 THIRD BEER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.0% to their 12.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 GOING NOWHERE (30-1) — our fair 2.8% is above the morning line's 2.2%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Miles Finch; pressure from #9 Feeling Lucky, #4 Frank Bullitt; the shape helps #4 Frank Bullitt, #6 Speed Of Elon, #7 The G M; and works against #3 Miles Finch, #9 Feeling Lucky.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE SANTA ANITA ALL TURF PICK 3
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