1Divine KismetLSV. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaA77 56 53▲▲+2210-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best77 56 53ALSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · Last 3 figs 77 56 53
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. 3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 -1½L 77 59-1 b 2w-ins;anged out3/16 9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -9L 56 34-1 b Inside;3wide;empty 8/28 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -9¼L 53 34-1 b Inside; empty 2Sauced UpA. Bautista · F. RondanBautista · RondanB57 73 72▼▼-1415-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -1457 73 72B3Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 57 73 72
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 19 lengths for 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 6f D fsMdSpWt 7th/9 -19L 57 7.5-1 3-5 wide to str;no bid 8/30 DMR 6f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 -4½L 73 4.0-1 Ins-2w;swung;gained3rd 8/13 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/9 -2½L 72 9.5-1 Chased inside;2nd best 3Seamless FactorH. Berrios · C. GainesBerrios · GainesA77 707-5Fair 5-230%
—77 70A1Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 77 70
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 77, with 76 next best. Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -½L 77 1.3-1 Crowded past1/2;ins-3w 8/29 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -1L 70 1.3-1 3wd;tipped out;denied 4Tiz the TruthU. Rispoli · P. MillerRispoli · Miller?12-1Fair 20-14%
—Debut?Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
First career start, by Stanford out of Tiz Fake News. This barn has 143 first-time starters on record and wins 7% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Sep 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By Stanford out of Tiz Fake News (Tiznow)Trainer P. Miller: 1st-time starters: 7% wins, 34% in the money (143 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 36% in the money (101 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 41% in the money (361 starts)Jockey U. Rispoli in turf: 44 wins from 196 (22%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/20 SLR 5f 1:00.00 handily 1/3 ● bullet from gate 10/8 SLR 5f 1:01.00 handily 3/9 10/2 SLR 4f :49.20 handily 6/13 9/25 SLR 3f :37.40 handily 1/1 ● bullet 9/2 SLR 5f 1:01.00 handily 1/5 ● bullet from gate 5Grazed in a Haze▼J. Spencer · B. GalvinSpencer · GalvinB69 6030-1Fair 30-14%
—69 60B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 69 60
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79Gets a new rider, J P Spencer replacing Dyke Drayden Van. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 79 par.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 6f T fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -1½L 69 18-1 b Bid 2wd turn;flattened 8/29 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt 4th/10 -3L 60 5.9-1 b Bit green;ins-5w;drftd 6Take RevengeJ. Hernandez · C. LewisHernandez · LewisA76 50 61▲▲+206-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best76 50 61ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 50 61
Moves up from maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden special weight. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 5½f D fsMd50000 2nd/7 -1L 76 2.2-1 b 2w-ins;bid outsd upper 8/30 DMR 6f D fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -8¼L 50 8.4-1 b In range;3-2-4wd;tired 7/18 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt 5th/9 -5½L 61 3.4-1 3-4wide; no rally 7Rosa's Miracle▼J. Rosario · J. SadlerRosario · SadlerB72 72 60▲+63-1Fair 6-114%
▲ Up +6 · career best72 72 60B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 792Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 72 60
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 794 WORKS IN 30 DAYSShortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile. Off 55 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 0)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 -1L 72 2.0-1 b Outsd;clear7/16;inside 7/30 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 2nd/6 by hd 72 0.6-1 b Pace;ins;collared 1/8 7/17 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt 8th/10 -5½L 60 2.6-1 Green;2-3w;no menace 8CardwellA. Ayuso · L. PowellAyuso · Powell?20-1Fair 30-13%
—Debut?Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Debut for a trainer who is 2% with first-timers, over 56 starts. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 2.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 9d agoLast three races
First start. By Grazen out of Icy Josie (Frosted)Trainer L. Powell: 1st-time starters: 2% wins, 12% in the money (56 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 10% in the money (31 starts) · Maiden special weights: 14% wins, 44% in the money (168 starts)Jockey A. Ayuso in turf: 42 wins from 376 (11%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 SA 4f :48.00 handily 5/20 10/16 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 15/37 10/9 SA 5f 1:02.00 handily 26/39 10/2 SA 4f :47.80 handily 13/48 from gate 9/25 SA 5f 1:01.00 handily 19/49 9Her Strut▼T. Pereira · G. PapaprodromouPereira · PapaprodromouC55 54 64▼-720-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -755 54 64C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 55 54 64
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 793 WORKS IN 30 DAYSComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA, beaten 13 lengths.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 6f D fsMdSpWt 8th/9 -13L 55 22-1 b 2w;btwn; weakened 8/30 DMR 6f D fsMdSpWt 7th/10 -4½L 54 4.9-1 b Led;overtakn1/4;folded 8/8 DMR 5½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/9 -4L 64 5.9-1 3-4wide; weakened 10Tiz LizK. Frey · A. BarbaFrey · Barba?30-1Fair 50-12%
—Debut?Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Before this first start, worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 9, 2nd fastest of 8 that morning. Unraced so far; the pedigree is Oscar Nominated out of Tizalwaysomething.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 16d back)Last three races
First start. By Oscar Nominated out of Tizalwaysomething (Tiznow)Trainer A. Barba: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 10% wins, 30% in the money (20 starts)Jockey K. Frey in turf: 16 wins from 195 (8%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/16 SA 5f 1:02.00 handily 5/5 10/9 SA 4f :49.00 handily 2/8 10/1 SA 4f :49.80 handily 5/8 9/24 SA 3f :36.00 handily 1/2 ● bullet 9/16 SA 3f :38.40 handily 1/2 ● bullet 11Dont Short Ur Self▼D. Van · M. PuypeVan · PuypeC47 5630-1Fair 50-12%
—47 56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 47 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 7960D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRaises its level, maiden claiming $50,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Dyke Drayden Van takes over from Kazushi Kimura in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/20 DMR 5½f D fsMd50000 8th/9 -7L 47 7.5-1 b Vie btwn;brsh/tight3/8 7/23 DMR 5f D fsMd50000c 7th/10 -10L 56 1.2-1 b Off slow;2w;angled5wd 12She's My Star▼F. Orduna-Rojas · E. AlvarezOrduna-Rojas · AlvarezC36 50 39▼▼-13↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1336 50 39 ↕C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–58 · Last 3 figs 36 50 39
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 79CLASS UPA step up in company: maiden claiming $50,000 before, maiden special weight today. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 17d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 LRC 5½f D fsMd50000 8th/8 -15L 36 76-1 b 3wide; no menace 8/9 DMR 5f D fsMd20000 8th/10 -7½L 50 45-1 b Chased ins-2wd;faded 7/23 DMR 5f D fsMd50000 9th/10 -16L 39 31-1 b 5wide-inside;no menace 13Big Broadcast▼K. Kimura · T. YakteenKimura · YakteenC63 61 67►30-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady63 61 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 63 61 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79CLASS UPCuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 1m D MCL 32k 3rd/9 -8½L 63 6.8-1 b Ins-2wd;2-3wd;held 3rd 9/4 DMR 5½f D fsMd20000 3rd/9 -7½L 61 2.8-1 b Bpd/steadied st;2-4wd 8/9 DMR 5f D fsMd20000 3rd/10 -4½L 67 2.8-1 b 2-3wide; mild rally 14EurydiceA. Escobedo · R. HansonEscobedo · Hanson?12-1Fair 20-14%
—Debut?Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 24). With 11 works on record, the first on Apr 30.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
First start. By Cistron out of Calm Down Lady (Stormy Atlantic)Trainer R. Hanson: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 36% in the money (91 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 34% in the money (64 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 32% in the money (204 starts)Jockey A. Escobedo in turf: 4 wins from 47 (9%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/24 SA 5f 1:00.80 handily 14/58 from gate 10/17 SA 5f 1:00.20 handily 13/60 from gate 10/9 SA 5f 1:00.80 handily 11/39 from gate 10/1 SA 5f 1:00.40 handily 2/21 from gate 9/23 SA 4f :47.00 handily 2/8
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQZ · RACE 3
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Seamless Factor (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 77 · 70. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Rosa's Miracle at 3-1. Use #2 Sauced Up in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SEAMLESS FACTOR (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #3 SEAMLESS FACTOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.2% to their 30.3%).
- #7 ROSA'S MIRACLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 18.2%).
- #6 TAKE REVENGE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (9.8% to their 10.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 SAUCED UP (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.6%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Rosa's Miracle; pressure from #11 Dont Short Ur Self, #9 Her Strut; the shape helps #3 Seamless Factor, #5 Grazed In A Haze, #6 Take Revenge; and works against #4 Tiz The Truth, #7 Rosa's Miracle, #8 Cardwell.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 3 OF THE SANTA ANITA ALL TURF PICK 3
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