| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/24 | EUR | 1.59091f D | Stk 50.0000k | 6th/8 -¾L | 76 | 14-1 | b LB | Faded in |
| 9/29 | WRD | 1.36364f D | Alw n3l | 4th/5 -4½L | 72 | 1.3-1 | b L | Unprepared st;mild bid |
| 7/16 | FMT | 1.59091f D | Alw n2l | Won/7 by ½ | 91 | 1.3-1 | b L | Good kick;up in time |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | WRD | 1.36364f D | Alw n3l | 2nd/5 by hd | 89 | 4.0-1 | L | Gaining late;missed |
| 7/9 | FMT | 1.59091f D | Clm 10k n2l | Won/6 | 83 | 0.3-1 | L | Broke well; held firm |
| 5/24 | RP | 1.36364f D | Clm 15k n3l | 3rd/10 by hd | 84 | 9.9-1 | L | Big duel;missed |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/15 | WRD | 1.36364f D | Alw n2l | 2nd/7 -3L | 92 | 1.2-1 | b L | Off bit slow;rallied |
| 7/16 | FMT | 1.59091f D | Alw n2l | 3rd/7 -½L | 88 | 3.9-1 | b L | In tight;good try |
| 5/30 | RP | 1.59091f D | 20k | 6th/8 -¾L | 80 | 23-1 | b L | Unable to match stride |
1TakiLSRan 5thR. Raudales · F. GoldRaudales · GoldC75 67 70►↕@trip 9310-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady75 67 70 ↕@trip 93CLSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 67 70
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
60D LAYOFFBack after 164 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Moves up from $30,000 claiming to allowance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 24d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/21 RP 1½f D Clm 30k n2l 8th/8 -3½L 75 14-1 b L Tardy brk;trld 4/19 RP 1.59091f D Clm 30k n2l 6th/10 -2¾L 67 6.0-1 b L Brk out;brshd;evenly 3/14 RP 1½f D Alw n2l 7th/8 -1¼L 70 3.8-1 b L Second step stutter 2Inner GRan 2ndL. Ramirez · R. ChavezRamirez · ChavezA76 72 91▼▼-9↕@trip 938-5Fair 1-149%
▼▼ Big drop -976 72 91 ↕@trip 93A1Card model 49% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 72 91
Jockey Luis Luna Ramirez 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Randy Chavez 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKTops the field on speed figures, a 93 against 92 for the next best. Was running in stakes; today's allowance is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Aug 29; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 EUR 1.59091f D Stk 50.0000k 6th/8 -¾L 76 14-1 b LB Faded in 9/29 WRD 1.36364f D Alw n3l 4th/5 -4½L 72 1.3-1 b L Unprepared st;mild bid 7/16 FMT 1.59091f D Alw n2l Won/7 by ½ 91 1.3-1 b L Good kick;up in time 3Livewires ApolloRan 1stE. Esqueda · M. WhitekillerEsqueda · WhitekillerA92 88 80▲▲+10@trip 925-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best92 88 80@trip 92A3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 92 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 88 80
Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, R4: Watashi 10-1, R5: Elsas Hero 5-1 · Trainer R5: Tiptoeing Tulip 3-1, this race: Favorite Turnpike 3-1Has moved up each time out, 80 to 88 to 92. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 WRD 1.36364f D Alw n2l 2nd/7 -3L 92 1.2-1 b L Off bit slow;rallied 7/16 FMT 1.59091f D Alw n2l 3rd/7 -½L 88 3.9-1 b L In tight;good try 5/30 RP 1.59091f D 20k 6th/8 -¾L 80 23-1 b L Unable to match stride 4Usdi SawuRan 3rdG. Valles Jr. · F. GoldValles Jr. · GoldB87 85 84▲+5@trip 8910-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +587 85 84@trip 89BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 85 84
Also today · Jockey R2: Green Lucky Cowboy 12-1, R3: Shesa Kats Meow 2-1 · Trainer this race: Taki 10-160D LAYOFFReturns from a 108-day break. Finished 4th in a 7-horse allowance race at FMT, beaten ¾ length.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 26d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/16 FMT 1.59091f D Alw n2l 4th/7 -¾L 87 7.3-1 b L Chased;crowded late 6/26 FMT 1.36364f D Alw n2l 6th/7 -1¾L 85 15-1 b L Off step slow;no kick 6/5 FMT 1.59091f D Alw n2l 3rd/5 -1L 84 6.0-1 b L Bid;outkicked for 2nd 5Mz JayhawkA. Martinez · A. AguilarMartinez · AguilarB81 81 81►@trip 878-1<1%
► Steady81 81 81@trip 87BCard model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 81 81
Also today · Jockey R3: Innocent Down Perry 5-2, R5: Cd Rockin Da Kas 9-2 · Trainer this race: Clutch Shot 4-1WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD at 4-1. Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and allowance now.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/27 WRD 1.59091f D Clm 10k n2l Won/6 81 4.0-1 b L Dueled;shook free late 10/4 WRD 1.59091f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/6 -1L — 2.8-1 b L Outkicked;safe 3rd 7/16 FMT 1.59091f D Alw n2l 7th/7 -2¾L 81 12-1 b L Off bit slow;no threat 6Clutch ShotR. Olmstead · A. AguilarOlmstead · AguilarB86 86 84▲+7@trip 864-1<1%
▲ Up +7 · career best86 86 84@trip 86BCard model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 86 84
Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Quick turnaround, just 6 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 61d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/26 WRD 1.36364f D Clm 10k n3l 2nd/6 86 2.1-1 b L Dueled;outfinished 10/6 WRD 1.13636f D Clm 10k n3l 3rd/6 -1½L 86 4.8-1 b L Chased;rallied for 3rd 9/22 WRD 1.59091f D Clm 10k n3l 2nd/10 84 10-1 b L Led late;overtaken 7Favorite TurnpikeRan 4thJ. Hernandez-Gallardo · M. WhitekillerHernandez-Gallardo · WhitekillerA89 83 84▲+5≡@trip 923-1Fair 7-223%
▲ Up +589 83 84 ≡@trip 92A2Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 83–89 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 83 84
Jockey Javier Hernandez-Gallardo 27% career · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Ar First Pretty Boy 5-1, R5: Tiptoeing Tulip 3-1 · Trainer R5: Tiptoeing Tulip 3-1, this race: Livewires Apollo 5-1Worked 1F in :12.00 on Sep 3, 3rd of 30 at the distance. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 5-horse allowance race at WRD.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 47d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/29 WRD 1.36364f D Alw n3l 2nd/5 by hd 89 4.0-1 L Gaining late;missed 7/9 FMT 1.59091f D Clm 10k n2l Won/6 83 0.3-1 L Broke well; held firm 5/24 RP 1.36364f D Clm 15k n3l 3rd/10 by hd 84 9.9-1 L Big duel;missed
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #2 Inner G, finished 2nd.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EUR · RACE 9
OFFICIALAllowance · $26,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.49
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #2 Inner G (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 76 · 72 · 91. Backup is #7 Favorite Turnpike at 3-1. Use #3 Livewires Apollo in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · 2ND
Top pick Inner G ran 2nd · Livewires Apollo won (our #3)
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 4th, 1st
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #2 INNER G | 2nd |
| #2 | #7 FAVORITE TURNPIKE | 4th |
| #3 | #3 LIVEWIRES APOLLO | 1st |
| #4 | #1 TAKI | 5th |
| #5 | #4 USDI SAWU | 3rd |
Actual finish
| 1st | #3 Livewires Apollo | our #3 |
| 2nd | #2 Inner G | our #1 |
| 3rd | #4 Usdi Sawu | our #5 |
| 4th | #7 Favorite Turnpike | our #2 |
| 5th | #1 Taki | our #4 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 INNER G (8-5) — our number agrees.
- #2 INNER G — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 40.9%, they've got 29.7%.
- #7 FAVORITE TURNPIKE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.1%, they've got 19.3%.
- #3 LIVEWIRES APOLLO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.1%, they've got 12.9%.
Model vs the morning line
- #2 INNER G — we make it 40.9%, the morning line works out to 29.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #7 FAVORITE TURNPIKE — we make it 25.1%, the morning line works out to 19.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #3 LIVEWIRES APOLLO — we make it 16.1%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 TAKI (10-1) — our fair 9.3% is above the morning line's 7.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Taki, #2 Inner G, #3 Livewires Apollo.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$2 WIN; PLACE; SHOW
$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 9-10)
BET OPTIONS
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