Pick sheet

Race 43:00 PM Alw 25000n2l

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Beers on Me, is 29% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Beers on Me ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 53–75

Jockey L. Delorme · Trainer K. Kemper · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 91 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	ARP	7f D	Alw nc	2nd/6 -2½L	73	2.6-1	b LB	Prmpt pc;led1/8;yieldd
7/5	ARP	1m D	TlluridDby25k	4th/6 by nk	71	3.2-1	b LB	Prsd;gamely;empty
2/23	SUN	6½f D	Alw n2l	7th/7 -7¾L	53	8.5-1	b L	Jostled/steady st;3-2p

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw20000nc at ARP. Last Brisnet figures 73-71-53. Best at today's distance 75. 1-for-3 at the distance. K. Kemper / L. Delorme.

Knock: Off 91 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #7 Myjerseysaysgood ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer B. Birzer · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 10: 1-3-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	MSW	Won/8	75	4.6-1	b LB	Finished strong
9/20	PRM	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7 -2½L	69	6.0-1	b LB	Bid 1/4;ang in;gaining
8/9	PRM	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/8 -6¾L	65	6.9-1	b LB	Saved ground;improved

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 75-69-65. Best at today's distance 75. 1-for-10 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. B. Birzer / A. Birzer.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Let's Race Uhh Huh ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 59–65 ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 83 1st-time blinkers Last out 5th/8 -9L in the fClm15000n2l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 59-65-61. Best at today's distance 61. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. T. Gleason / C. Alvarado. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey C. Alvarado · Trainer T. Gleason · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 61 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/8 -9L	59	6.9-1	LB	Hustled along
9/19	PRM	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/8 -3¼L	65	4.8-1	LB	In back;5wd;rallied
8/30	PRM	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/7 -11L	61	7.4-1	LB	Off pace;3-4wd upper

Longshot #1 Stetsonsnstilettos ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -3 ↕ Up and down 43–67

Jockey J. Coates · Trainer C. McVay · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 68 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	4th/7 -5½L	56	3.7-1	b LB	Even effort
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	4th/4 -2L	67	2.5-1	b LB	No factor
4/20	TUP	1m D	Clm 10k n2lc	7th/7 -8L	43	12-1	b L	Pulled; 3-2p; yielded

Case: Last out 4th/7 -5½L in the Clm7500 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 56-67-43. Best at today's distance 68. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Eureka. C. McVay / J. Coates.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #7 · B #1, #3, #5 · C #6, #8

Angles: #3 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #4 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #5 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #6 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #7 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #8 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 83

R4 EUR · Allowance · $25,000 purse

3:00 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $25,000 · 8 runners3:00 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $25K · Allowance · $25,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1StetsonsnstilettosLSRan 4thJ. Coates · C. McVayCoates · McVayB56 67 43▼-3↕@trip 688-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -356 67 43 ↕@trip 68BLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–67 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 67 43

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J R Coates 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cameron Simpson McVay 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1, R10: Majd Storm 12-1 · Trainer R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1, R7: Pretty Red 20-1

A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, allowance today. Goes 6 furlongs after running 4 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 48 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	4th/7 -5½L	56	3.7-1	b LB	Even effort
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	4th/4 -2L	67	2.5-1	b LB	No factor
4/20	TUP	1m D	Clm 10k n2lc	7th/7 -8L	43	12-1	b L	Pulled; 3-2p; yielded

2Beers on MeRan 3rdL. Delorme · K. KemperDelorme · KemperA73 71 53▲+7↕@trip 752-1Fair 5-230%▲ Up +773 71 53 ↕@trip 75A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 71 53

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Kerry Kemper 24% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Panuco 12-1, R6: Bc Seperate Interest 12-1, R7: Country Sonata 4-1 · Trainer R1: Panuco 12-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 91-day break. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 75, with 72 next best.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.00 on Jun 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	ARP	7f D	Alw nc	2nd/6 -2½L	73	2.6-1	b LB	Prmpt pc;led1/8;yieldd
7/5	ARP	1m D	TlluridDby25k	4th/6 by nk	71	3.2-1	b LB	Prsd;gamely;empty
2/23	SUN	6½f D	Alw n2l	7th/7 -7¾L	53	8.5-1	b L	Jostled/steady st;3-2p

3Breathtaking Folly▼Ran 5thN. Haar · J. IbarraHaar · IbarraB58 61 65▼-5≡@trip 725-1Fair 8-112%▼ Down -558 61 65 ≡@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 58–65 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 61 65

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Tall Cool One 5-2, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5, R10: Like Moulin Rouge 15-1 · Trainer R2: Lil Racy Girl 9-2, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 65 to 61 to 58. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 72 against a 83 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 125d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	7th/8 -3L	58	8.9-1	b LB	Lost ground
9/11	PRM	5f D	Clm 12k n2l	3rd/8 -5L	61	13-1	b LB	Slow st;savd grnd;2wd
8/22	PRM	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/6	65	0.7-1	b LB	Duel 2w;no match late

4Let's Race Uhh Huh▼Ran 6thC. Alvarado · T. GleasonAlvarado · GleasonA59 65 61▼-3≡@trip 619-2Fair 7-112%▼ Down -359 65 61 ≡@trip 61A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 833

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 59–65 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 65 61

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tyrone Gleason 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R7: Miss Dixie Belle 20-1, R8: Pops Reward 12-1 · Trainer R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R8: Pops Reward 12-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5

Last out was 5th, 9 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $15,000 claiming race at EUR. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/8 -9L	59	6.9-1	LB	Hustled along
9/19	PRM	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/8 -3¼L	65	4.8-1	LB	In back;5wd;rallied
8/30	PRM	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/7 -11L	61	7.4-1	LB	Off pace;3-4wd upper

5Watashi▼Ran 2ndE. Esqueda · C. StortzumEsqueda · StortzumB57 25 38▲▲+39↕@trip 3810-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +39 · career best57 25 38 ↕@trip 38B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 83
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +39 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures -9–57 · Best fig at today's trip 38 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 25 38
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cady Stortzum 16% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, R5: Elsas Hero 5-1, R9: Livewires Apollo 5-1 · Trainer R1: Perscripture 10-1, R7: Hope Restored 10-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Cady Stortzum takes over the training from Riley Dean Seaton. Winner of a 7-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at EUR last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 10; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 4f D MCL 7k Won/7 by 1 57 4.7-1 b LB Gained ground
10/2 RP 5f D MSW 10th/10 -20L 25 45-1 b L Duel;2p;tired
8/8 ELP 6f D MCL 10k 7th/7 -10L 38 28-1 b L Ins;headed 7/16;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	4f D	MCL 7k	Won/7 by 1	57	4.7-1	b LB	Gained ground
10/2	RP	5f D	MSW	10th/10 -20L	25	45-1	b L	Duel;2p;tired
8/8	ELP	6f D	MCL 10k	7th/7 -10L	38	28-1	b L	Ins;headed 7/16;wknd

6K K's First Dance▼Ran 7thJ. Medina · K. ClarkMedina · ClarkC54 62 63▼▼-10@trip 6120-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1054 62 63@trip 61C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 62 63

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 6 · Trainer Kirt Clark 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Whip 15-1, R6: Shake Up 7-2, R7: Mamie D 2-1, R8: All About Mischief 3-1 · Trainer R6: Bc Seperate Interest 12-1

CLASS UP

Switches from turf to dirt. Jose Angel Medina takes over from Osvaldo Quinonez-Lopez in the saddle.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 32d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	5f T	Clm 20k n2l	11th/12 -7¾L	54	75-1	b L	Chased; 4w; gave way
9/11	PRM	5f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/8 -4½L	62	14-1	b L	Bid 3/16p;4w;up place
8/30	GIL	5½f D	Clm 5k n2lc	5th/9 -4L	63	6.6-1	b L	Wide turns empty late

7Myjerseysaysgood▼Ran 1stA. Birzer · B. BirzerBirzer · BirzerA75 69 65▲▲+8@trip 753-1Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best75 69 65@trip 75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 832

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 69 65

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ambrose 7-2, R6: Hurts So Good 5-2, R8: Title Contender 5-1, R10: Uptown Trumpthess 4-1 · Trainer R1: Ambrose 7-2, R8: Title Contender 5-1, R8: Helado 8-1

WON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 75. Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EUR.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	MSW	Won/8	75	4.6-1	b LB	Finished strong
9/20	PRM	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7 -2½L	69	6.0-1	b LB	Bid 1/4;ang in;gaining
8/9	PRM	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/8 -6¾L	65	6.9-1	b LB	Saved ground;improved

8Pokey▼Ran 8thD. Alvarez Jr. · D. CumminsAlvarez Jr. · CumminsC31 62 1►@trip 3115-1Fair 30-13%► Steady31 62 1@trip 31C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 31 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 31 62 1

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey David Jr Alvarez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer David Cummins 20% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Shesa Sweetie Kat 7-2, R8: Bureaucratic 15-1 · Trainer R7: Mamie D 2-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Back after 107 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Jockey switch: Cassidy D B Fletcher last out, David Jr Alvarez today.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/17	FMT	6f D	sAlw17500n1x	6th/6 -14L	31	17-1	b	Bore out 1st; faded
6/4	FMT	5½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/5	62	4.6-1	b	Set pace; held edge
4/14	WRD	5½f D	sMdSpWt	11th/11 -22L	1	99-1	b L	Urged 3-4p; stopped

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Beers On Me, finished 3rd.

1st7MyjerseysaysgoodWin$6.60Place$4.00Show$3.00Our #2

2nd5WatashiWin—Place$7.80Show$5.20Our #6

3rd2Beers On MeWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #1

4th1StetsonsnstilettosOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $25,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

3:00 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 30%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 72.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Beers On Me (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 73 · 71 · 53. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Myjerseysaysgood at 3-1. Use #4 Let's Race Uhh Huh in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Beers On Me ran 3rd · Myjerseysaysgood won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 BEERS ON ME	3rd
#2	#7 MYJERSEYSAYSGOOD	1st
#3	#4 LET'S RACE UHH HUH	6th
#4	#3 BREATHTAKING FOLLY	5th
#5	#1 STETSONSNSTILETTOS	4th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Myjerseysaysgood	our #2
2nd	#5 Watashi	our #6
3rd	#2 Beers On Me	our #1
4th	#1 Stetsonsnstilettos	our #5
5th	#3 Breathtaking Folly	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 BEERS ON ME (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 BEERS ON ME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.8% to their 26.8%).
#7 MYJERSEYSAYSGOOD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 20.1%).
#4 LET'S RACE UHH HUH — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Watashi; pressure from #8 Pokey, #7 Myjerseysaysgood; the shape helps #1 Stetsonsnstilettos, #2 Beers On Me, #3 Breathtaking Folly; and works against #5 Watashi, #8 Pokey.

Lead

5Watashi818Pokey81

Press

7Myjerseysaysgood913Breathtaking Folly862Beers On Me82

Stalk

6K K's First Dance871Stetsonsnstilettos

4Let's Race Uhh Huh76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Myjerseysaysgood

K K's First Dance

Breathtaking Folly

Beers On Me

Watashi

Pokey

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Let's Race Uhh Huh

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 WIN; PLACE; SHOW

$2 EXACTA ($1 BOX / WHEEL)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.