Pick sheet

Race 53:30 PM Clm 7500n4l

1F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Holy Dynasty, is 28% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Holy Dynasty ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 ↕ Up and down 61–87

Jockey R. Olmstead · Trainer P. Swan · Dist 7: 2-0-0 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	5th/7 -2¼L	81	30-1	LB	Early bid; gave way
9/3	CBY	1.81818f D	sMinnestDby41k	4th/8 -½L	87	1.1-1	L	Chase;kept on
4/23	RP	1.81818f D	Alw n3l	7th/7 -3¾L	61	17-1	L	Steadily lost ground

Case: Last out 5th/7 -2¼L in the OC15000 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 81-87-61. 2-for-7 at the distance. P. Swan / R. Olmstead.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #7 Tiptoeing Tulip ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 62–92

Jockey J. Hernandez-Gallardo · Trainer M. Whitekiller · Dist 12: 2-2-3 · best fig at 1f dirt 66 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	WRD	1½f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/9 -½L	89	9.1-1	b L	Chased;held for 3rd
7/19	FMT	1.36364f D	sClm15000n3l	3rd/6 by hd	92	6.7-1	b L	Pressd;outkickd inside
6/13	FMT	1.59091f D	sClm10000n2l	Won/5	79	2.6-1	b L	Dueled;held sway

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm10000n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 89-92-79. Best at today's distance 66. 2-for-12 at the distance. M. Whitekiller / J. Hernandez-Gallardo.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Use #2 Shesa Sweetie Kat ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 ↕ Up and down 62–87 Last out 5th/10 -1¼L in the Clm10000n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 71-62-87. Best at today's distance 81. 2-for-11 at the distance. E. Escamilla-Gonzalez / D. Alvarez Jr.. Knock: Never raced at Eureka. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Alvarez Jr. · Trainer E. Escamilla-Gonzalez · Dist 11: 2-1-0 · best fig at 1f dirt 81 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	5th/10 -1¼L	71	26-1	b L	Up close;weakened
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	9th/9 -2L	62	53-1	b LB	Briefly fractious gate
8/9	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 15k	6th/6 by hd	87	15-1	b LB	Inside; weakened

Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #7 · B #2, #5, #8 · C #1, #4

Angles: #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 93)

R5 EUR · Claiming $7,500

3:30 PM ET · 220 Yards Dirt · $16,000 · 7 runners (1 out)3:30 PM · 1f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $16K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Dyna BeaL. Ramirez · S. Gaytan Jr.Ramirez · Gaytan Jr.C81 83 79►≡@trip 798-1<1%► Steady81 83 79 ≡@trip 79C

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–84 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 83 79

Jockey Luna Luis Ramirez 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel Jr Gaytan 14% career

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 1¾ lengths for 5th in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/26	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 7k	5th/8 -1¾L	81	6.8-1	b L	Off pace;needed more
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 7k	Won/6 by nk	83	6.1-1	b L	Vied;dueled;prevailed
7/15	FMT	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	6th/10 -2¼L	79	20-1	b L	Not enough

2Shesa Sweetie KatRan 3rdD. Alvarez Jr. · E. Escamilla-GonzalezAlvarez Jr. · Escamilla-GonzalezB71 62 87▼-6↕@trip 817-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -671 62 87 ↕@trip 81B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–87 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 62 87

Jockey David Jr Alvarez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Pokey 15-1, R8: Bureaucratic 15-1 · Trainer R3: Fabulous And Fancy 5-1, R3: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, this race: Mrblue Wagon 15-1

Class relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. 5th last time, 1¼ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 142 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	5th/10 -1¼L	71	26-1	b L	Up close;weakened
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	9th/9 -2L	62	53-1	b LB	Briefly fractious gate
8/9	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 15k	6th/6 by hd	87	15-1	b LB	Inside; weakened

3Cd Rockin Da KasRan 2ndA. Martinez · J. DavisMartinez · DavisA85 101 79►↕@trip 1019-2Fair 6-114%► Steady85 101 79 ↕@trip 101A

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–101 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 101 79

Jockey Aram S Martinez 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Innocent Down Perry 5-2, R9: Mz Jayhawk 8-1 · Trainer R3: Innocent Down Perry 5-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 101, with 93 next best. Turns back in 7 days.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 18; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1.36364f D	Clm 7k n3l	3rd/6 by hd	85	4.8-1	b LB	Even effort
9/26	SWF	1f D	Alw b	5th/10 -1L	101	15-1	b LB	Steady effort
9/6	SWF	1.81818f D	sMTR	7th/9 -1½L	79	2.4-1	b LB	In-tight early;no fnsh

4Elsas Hero▼Ran 7thE. Esqueda · S. MendozaEsqueda · MendozaC74 93 72▼-3↕@trip 725-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -374 93 72 ↕@trip 72C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 93)

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–93 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 93 72

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 93)

Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, R4: Watashi 10-1, R9: Livewires Apollo 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Aug 17 (:12.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.60 on Aug 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3l	4th/10 -1L	74	3.4-1	b	Up close;flattened out
7/11	LMR	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/6 by 1	93	5.6-1	b B	Drew clear
4/11	RP	1.13636f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/9 -1L	72	7.7-1	b L	Wide lane;outkickd

5Love Eye SeeRan 4thG. Estrada · R. CovarrubiasEstrada · CovarrubiasB84 79 45▲▲+16↕@trip 7910-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best84 79 45 ↕@trip 79B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–84 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 79 45

Jockey Giovany Estrada 24% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Jb Chata 8-1, R3: Behold A Dynasty 3-1 · Trainer R2: Jb Chata 8-1, R3: Gravel N Grace 20-1, R3: Behold A Dynasty 3-1

CLASS DROP

Has moved up each time out, 45 to 79 to 84. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1.36364f D	Clm 7k n3l	4th/6 by nk	84	8.8-1	b L	Evenly
8/30	PRM	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	Won/7 by 1½	79	5.9-1	b LB	Bumped after start
8/10	PRM	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	9th/9 -3¼L	45	7.8-1	b LB	Bumped start

6Holy DynastyRan 6thR. Olmstead · P. SwanOlmstead · SwanA81 87 61▲+6↕2-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +681 87 61 ↕A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–87 · Last 3 figs 81 87 61

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Pam Swan 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Cyber Fundays 3-1, R9: Clutch Shot 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Patrick E Swan to Pam Swan. A big drop, optional claiming to $7,500 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on Apr 11; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	5th/7 -2¼L	81	30-1	LB	Early bid; gave way
9/3	CBY	1.81818f D	sMinnestDby41k	4th/8 -½L	87	1.1-1	L	Chase;kept on
4/23	RP	1.81818f D	Alw n3l	7th/7 -3¾L	61	17-1	L	Steadily lost ground

7Tiptoeing TulipRan 1stJ. Hernandez-Gallardo · M. WhitekillerHernandez-Gallardo · WhitekillerA89 92 79▲▲+11↕@trip 663-1Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +1189 92 79 ↕@trip 66A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–92 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 92 79

Jockey Javier Hernandez-Gallardo 27% career · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Ar First Pretty Boy 5-1, R9: Favorite Turnpike 3-1 · Trainer R9: Livewires Apollo 5-1, R9: Favorite Turnpike 3-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Finished 3rd in a 9-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD, beaten ½ length. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	WRD	1½f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/9 -½L	89	9.1-1	b L	Chased;held for 3rd
7/19	FMT	1.36364f D	sClm15000n3l	3rd/6 by hd	92	6.7-1	b L	Pressd;outkickd inside
6/13	FMT	1.59091f D	sClm10000n2l	Won/5	79	2.6-1	b L	Dueled;held sway

8Mrblue WagonRan 5thO. Jaquez · E. Escamilla-GonzalezJaquez · Escamilla-GonzalezB85 73 56▲▲+23↕@trip 8515-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best85 73 56 ↕@trip 85B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 73 56

Jockey Oscar Jaquez 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Capi Me 15-1 · Trainer R3: Fabulous And Fancy 5-1, R3: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, this race: Shesa Sweetie Kat 7-2

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Freshened 105 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Figures are climbing: 56, 73, 85 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	Won/10	85	3.6-1	b L	Outbroke trouble;drift
5/3	RP	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	2nd/8 by hd	73	36-1	b L	Nk&nk;outnodded
3/29	RP	1.81818f D	MCL 20k	7th/8 -4L	56	42-1	b L	Brk in; no late kick

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Holy Dynasty, finished 6th.

1st7Tiptoeing TulipWin$6.60Place$3.20Show$2.80Our #2

2nd3Cd Rockin Da KasWin—Place$4.60Show$3.60Our #4

3rd2Shesa Sweetie KatWin—Place—Show$3.80Our #3

4th5Love Eye SeeOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$16,000

Post

3:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 28%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won four races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 220 Yards: 11.9

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Holy Dynasty (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 81 · 87 · 61. Backup is #7 Tiptoeing Tulip at 3-1. Use #2 Shesa Sweetie Kat in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Tiptoeing Tulip (our #2) won · top pick Holy Dynasty ran 6th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 6th, 1st, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (6th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 HOLY DYNASTY	6th
#2	#7 TIPTOEING TULIP	1st
#3	#2 SHESA SWEETIE KAT	3rd
#4	#3 CD ROCKIN DA KAS	2nd
#5	#4 ELSAS HERO	7th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Tiptoeing Tulip	our #2
2nd	#3 Cd Rockin Da Kas	our #4
3rd	#2 Shesa Sweetie Kat	our #3
4th	#5 Love Eye See	our #6
5th	#8 Mrblue Wagon	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 HOLY DYNASTY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 HOLY DYNASTY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.3% to their 23.5%).
#7 TIPTOEING TULIP — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.7%, they've got 17.6%.
#2 SHESA SWEETIE KAT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 TIPTOEING TULIP — we make it 20.7%, the morning line works out to 17.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Dyna Bea, #2 Shesa Sweetie Kat, #3 Cd Rockin Da Kas.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Dyna Bea2Shesa Sweetie Kat3Cd Rockin Da Kas4Elsas Hero5Love Eye See6Holy Dynasty7Tiptoeing Tulip8Mrblue Wagon

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mrblue Wagon

Holy Dynasty

Dyna Bea

Shesa Sweetie Kat

Cd Rockin Da Kas

Elsas Hero

Love Eye See

Tiptoeing Tulip

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 WIN; PLACE; SHOW

$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.