Pick sheet

Race 22:00 PM Alw 25000n2l

1.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Stmarks Eckspress, is 34% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Stmarks Eckspress ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 1st-time blinkers

Jockey R. Raudales · Trainer J. Eck · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7	1	4.4-1	LB	Sharp debut

Case: Last out won in the sMdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 1. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. J. Eck / R. Raudales.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1f).

Contender #6 Cyber Fundays ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ★ Best at 1½f dirt: 88

Jockey R. Olmstead · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-0-2 · best fig at 1½f dirt 88 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1½f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 -½L	88	6.1-1	b LB	Clean trip
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	3rd/9 -2L	82	8.1-1	b L	Outkicked for 2nd
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	5th/8 -1½L	81	38-1	b LB	Evenly late

Case: Last out 4th/8 -½L in the Alw26000n2l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 88-82-81. Best at today's distance 88. 1-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Olmstead / R. Olmstead.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Lil Racy Girl ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ↕ Up and down 64–85 Last out won in the sMdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 85-64-85. Best at today's distance 66. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. J. Ibarra / L. Ramirez. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Ramirez · Trainer J. Ibarra · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-2-2 · best fig at 1½f dirt 66 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1f D	sMdSpWt	Won/5	85	2.1-1	b LB	Game winner
9/20	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	5th/8 -3L	64	5.8-1	b LB	Lacked a rally
8/21	PRM	1f D	MCL 10kc	3rd/10 -1L	85	1.1-1	b LB	Gaining fast

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #4, #7, #8 · C #1 · ? #2 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R2 EUR · State-Bred Allowance · $25,000 purse

2:00 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $25,000 · 8 runners2:00 PM · 1½f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $25K · State-Bred Allowance · $25,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Green Lucky CowboyRan 7thG. Valles Jr. · J. Hernandez-MartinezValles Jr. · Hernandez-MartinezC73 72@trip 7312-1Fair 20-15%—73 72@trip 73C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 72
Jockey Gonzalo R Jr Valles 21% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez
Also today · Jockey R3: Shesa Kats Meow 2-1, R9: Usdi Sawu 10-1 · Trainer R3: Shesa Kats Meow 2-1, R3: Atomic 20-1, R8: Bureaucratic 15-1
New trainer: Rodrigo Covarrubias had it last time, Jose Hernandez-Martinez now. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 125d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 1f D sMdSpWt 5th/7 -1L — 2.5-1 LB Even effort
8/22 PRM 1.36364f D MSW 4th/7 -1L 73 10-1 LB Faded late
7/19 PRM 1.13636f D MCL 10k 2nd/6 -2L 72 6.7-1 LB Slow start; surged
2Skidaddle DashRan 8thA. Stanley · J. RutlandStanley · Rutland?8-1Fair 12-18%——?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Jeffrey T Rutland 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Pete Be Rowdy 15-1, R7: Shosweet 3-1, R10: Ekonia 15-1
Last out was 3rd, a head behind the winner, in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at EUR.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 36d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 1f D sMdSpWt 3rd/5 by hd — 3.8-1 B Game third

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1f D	sMdSpWt	5th/7 -1L	—	2.5-1	LB	Even effort
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/7 -1L	73	10-1	LB	Faded late
7/19	PRM	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	2nd/6 -2L	72	6.7-1	LB	Slow start; surged

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/5 by hd	—	3.8-1	B	Game third

3Ar First Pretty BoyRan 5thJ. Hernandez-Gallardo · J. AguileraHernandez-Gallardo · AguileraA80 80 67▲+5@trip 805-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +5 · career best80 80 67@trip 80A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 80 67

Jockey Javier Hernandez-Gallardo 27% career · Trainer Jose C Aguilera 14% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Tiptoeing Tulip 3-1, R9: Favorite Turnpike 3-1

Raises its level, $15,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Changes barns, from Haley N Hobbs to Jose C Aguilera.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 256 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/26	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/7 -2¾L	80	24-1	L	Step slow;mild bid
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/10 -1½L	80	32-1	L	Off bit slow;outkicked
8/16	ARP	1.81818f D	MileHiFut61k	9th/10 -2¾L	67	18-1	b LB	Failed to menace

4Jb ChataRan 1stG. Estrada · R. CovarrubiasEstrada · CovarrubiasB81 61 83▲▲+9@trip 618-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +981 61 83@trip 61B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 61 83

Jockey Giovany Estrada 24% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Behold A Dynasty 3-1, R5: Love Eye See 10-1 · Trainer R3: Gravel N Grace 20-1, R3: Behold A Dynasty 3-1, R5: Love Eye See 10-1

60D LAYOFF

A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, allowance today. Giovany Estrada takes over from Gonzalo R Jr Valles in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Broke in; bump foe 2x. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	PRM	1.13636f D	Clm 20k n2l	2nd/6	81	3.6-1	b LB	Broke in;bump foe 2x
6/29	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/8 -1¼L	61	16-1	LB	Angled in; weakened
5/21	RP	1.13636f D	MCL 20k	Won/10	83	55-1	L	Stronger every step

5Lil Racy GirlRan 2ndL. Ramirez · J. IbarraRamirez · IbarraA85 64 85▲▲+9↕@trip 669-2Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best85 64 85 ↕@trip 66A3
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–85 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 64 85
Jockey Luis Luna Ramirez 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R9: Inner G 8-5 · Trainer R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1
WON LAST
Winner of a 5-horse maiden special weight race at EUR last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 141d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 1f D sMdSpWt Won/5 85 2.1-1 b LB Game winner
9/20 PRM 1.13636f D MSW 5th/8 -3L 64 5.8-1 b LB Lacked a rally
8/21 PRM 1f D MCL 10kc 3rd/10 -1L 85 1.1-1 b LB Gaining fast

6Cyber Fundays★Ran 3rdR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadA88 82 81▲▲+9@trip 883-1Fair 4-120%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best88 82 81@trip 88A★ Best at the trip 882

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 88 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 82 81

★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Holy Dynasty 2-1, R9: Clutch Shot 4-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 88, with 85 next best. Figures are climbing: 81, 82, 88 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 242d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1½f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 -½L	88	6.1-1	b LB	Clean trip
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	3rd/9 -2L	82	8.1-1	b L	Outkicked for 2nd
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	5th/8 -1½L	81	38-1	b LB	Evenly late

7Stmarks EckspressRan 4thR. Raudales · J. EckRaudales · EckB12-1Fair 2-134%—1B1
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 1
Jockey Rolando Raudales 29% career 3-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe Eck 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: Taki 10-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at EUR. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Sep 11, in :11.60.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 1f D sMdSpWt Won/7 1 4.4-1 LB Sharp debut

8Shaky CartelRan 6thJ. Lopez · S. CappsLopez · CappsB81 69 66▲▲+1612-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best81 69 66B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 81 69 66

Jockey Jose Alonzo Lopez 36% career · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Has moved up each time out, 66 to 69 to 81. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 58 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7 by hd	—	9.5-1	b LB	Steady effort
9/27	WRD	1.13636f D	MCL 15k	7th/10 -1¾L	81	22-1	b L	Mild traffic;no rally
6/20	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 15k	5th/10 -2½L	69	13-1	b L	Tight early;no kick

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Stmarks Eckspress, finished 4th.

1st4Jb ChataWin$28.80Place$10.40Show$6.40Our #6

2nd5Lil Racy GirlWin—Place$4.60Show$3.40Our #3

3rd6Cyber FundaysWin—Place—Show$4.40Our #2

4th7Stmarks EckspressOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

State-Bred Allowance · $25,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

2:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 34%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.49

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Stmarks Eckspress (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 1. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Cyber Fundays at 3-1. Use #5 Lil Racy Girl in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Jb Chata won (our #6) · top pick Stmarks Eckspress ran 4th

What worked

✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 3rd, 2nd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 STMARKS ECKSPRESS	4th
#2	#6 CYBER FUNDAYS	3rd
#3	#5 LIL RACY GIRL	2nd
#4	#3 AR FIRST PRETTY BOY	5th
#5	#2 SKIDADDLE DASH	8th

Actual finish

1st	#4 Jb Chata	our #6
2nd	#5 Lil Racy Girl	our #3
3rd	#6 Cyber Fundays	our #2
4th	#7 Stmarks Eckspress	our #1
5th	#3 Ar First Pretty Boy	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 STMARKS ECKSPRESS (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 STMARKS ECKSPRESS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 25.5%).
#6 CYBER FUNDAYS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.1%).
#5 LIL RACY GIRL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Green Lucky Cowboy, #2 Skidaddle Dash, #3 Ar First Pretty Boy.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Green Lucky Cowboy2Skidaddle Dash3Ar First Pretty Boy4Jb Chata5Lil Racy Girl6Cyber Fundays7Stmarks Eckspress8Shaky Cartel

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jb Chata

Green Lucky Cowboy

Skidaddle Dash

Ar First Pretty Boy

Lil Racy Girl

Cyber Fundays

Stmarks Eckspress

Shaky Cartel

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 WIN;PLACE; SHOW

$2 EXACTA ($1 BOX / WHEEL)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.