Pick sheet

Race 32:30 PM Clm 12500Early Pick 4 starts

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Innocent Down Perry, is 29% to win (morning line implies 21%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Innocent Down Perry ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -10

Jockey A. Martinez · Trainer J. Davis · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 18: 2-3-6 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 86 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	4th/7 -¾L	79	5.0-1	b L	Clean trip
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	8th/10 -2½L	84	13-1	b L	Bit tight st;faded
8/22	SWF	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1L	86	3.5-1	b LB	Willing;best of rest

Case: Last out 4th/7 -¾L in the Alw28000n3l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 79-84-86. Best at today's distance 86. 2-for-18 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Davis / A. Martinez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Shesa Kats Meow ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3

Jockey G. Valles Jr. · Trainer J. Hernandez-Martinez · Dist 20: 4-3-2 · 105 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 15k	6th/7 -1¼L	75	7.4-1	b LB	Stumbled start
9/19	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 12k	4th/7 by hd	—	8.9-1	b LB	Weakened late
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 12k	5th/9 by hd	80	21-1	b LB	Lost path after start

Case: Last out 6th/7 -1¼L in the OC15000 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 75-80. 4-for-20 at the distance. J. Hernandez-Martinez / G. Valles Jr..

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1½f). Off 105 days.

Use #5 Behold a Dynasty ML 3-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 Lasix off Last out 5th/6 -8½L in the Alw17000b at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 81-84-78. 2-for-19 at the distance. R. Covarrubias / G. Estrada. Knock: Off 92 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Jockey G. Estrada · Trainer R. Covarrubias · Dist 19: 2-1-4 · 92 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	PRM	3.95455f D	Alw b	5th/6 -8½L	81	48-1	LB	Failed to threaten
6/20	PRM	3.95455f D	Alw b	4th/6 -5½L	84	6.0-1	LB	Inside;3wd;no threat
5/24	RP	3.95455f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/4 -½L	78	3.9-1	L	3wide; outdueled

Longshot #6 Atomic ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #6

Jockey J. Lopez · Trainer J. Hernandez-Martinez · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-1 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/8 by nk	—	11-1	B	Game third
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	4th/6 by nk	71	4.7-1	LB	Flattened late
6/22	PRM	1½f D	MCL 15k	5th/7 -1L	60	24-1	LB	Drift in;bumped foe

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 71-60. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Hernandez-Martinez / J. Lopez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-3 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #2, #7, #8 · C #1, #6

Angles: #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (71 vs 83)

R3 EUR · Claiming $12,500

2:30 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $21,000 · 7 runners (1 out)2:30 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $21K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Capi MeO. Jaquez · C. BlackJaquez · BlackC71 68 77▲▲+9↕15-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +971 68 77 ↕C

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–77 · Last 3 figs 71 68 77

Jockey Oscar Jaquez 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Casey D Black 26% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Mrblue Wagon 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Back after 156 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Moves up from maiden claiming $10,000 to $12,500 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 40d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/29	RP	2f D	MCL 10k	6th/9 -2¼L	71	19-1	b L	Alert; outfinished
5/16	RP	2½f D	MCL 10k	5th/10 -1¾L	68	4.3-1	b L	Off best; outdueled
4/16	RP	2½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/9	77	30-1	b L	Clear lead; caught

2Gravel N GraceRan 5thJ. Valenzuela Jr. · R. CovarrubiasValenzuela Jr. · CovarrubiasB73 75 63▲▲+9↕@trip 3320-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +973 75 63 ↕@trip 33B
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–75 · Best fig at today's trip 33 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 63
Jockey John Raul Jr Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Mr Secret Lee 12-1 · Trainer R2: Jb Chata 8-1, this race: Behold A Dynasty 3-1, R5: Love Eye See 10-1
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK
A step up in company: maiden claiming $7,500 before, $12,500 claiming today. Finished 4th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at EUR, beaten a neck.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Aug 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 1½f D MCL 7k 4th/8 by nk 73 9.8-1 b B Evenly
8/29 PRM 1.13636f D sMd15000 3rd/10 -1L 75 12-1 b LB Steady bid
9/21 PRM 1.36364f D MCL 15k 6th/7 -3¼L 63 8.1-1 b LB Slow start

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	1½f D	MCL 7k	4th/8 by nk	73	9.8-1	b B	Evenly
8/29	PRM	1.13636f D	sMd15000	3rd/10 -1L	75	12-1	b LB	Steady bid
9/21	PRM	1.36364f D	MCL 15k	6th/7 -3¼L	63	8.1-1	b LB	Slow start

3Innocent Down PerryRan 1stA. Martinez · J. DavisMartinez · DavisA79 84 86▼▼-10@trip 865-2Fair 5-229%▼▼ Big drop -1079 84 86@trip 86A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 84 86

Jockey Aram S Martinez 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Cd Rockin Da Kas 9-2, R9: Mz Jayhawk 8-1 · Trainer R5: Cd Rockin Da Kas 9-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 96. Figures have slipped: 86, 84, 79 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 255d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	4th/7 -¾L	79	5.0-1	b L	Clean trip
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	8th/10 -2½L	84	13-1	b L	Bit tight st;faded
8/22	SWF	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1L	86	3.5-1	b LB	Willing;best of rest

4Shesa Kats MeowRan 2ndG. Valles Jr. · J. Hernandez-MartinezValles Jr. · Hernandez-MartinezA75 80 80▼-32-1Fair 3-125%▼ Down -375 80 80A2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 75 80 80

Jockey Gonzalo R Jr Valles 21% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez

Also today · Jockey R2: Green Lucky Cowboy 12-1, R9: Usdi Sawu 10-1 · Trainer R2: Green Lucky Cowboy 12-1, this race: Atomic 20-1, R8: Bureaucratic 15-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Jose Ibarra to Jose Hernandez-Martinez. 105 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (1F in :10.80), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 15k	6th/7 -1¼L	75	7.4-1	b LB	Stumbled start
9/19	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 12k	4th/7 by hd	—	8.9-1	b LB	Weakened late
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 12k	5th/9 by hd	80	21-1	b LB	Lost path after start

5Behold a DynastyRan 7thG. Estrada · R. CovarrubiasEstrada · CovarrubiasA81 84 78▲+53-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +581 84 78A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 81 84 78

Jockey Giovany Estrada 24% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Jb Chata 8-1, R5: Love Eye See 10-1 · Trainer R2: Jb Chata 8-1, this race: Gravel N Grace 20-1, R5: Love Eye See 10-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Shortens up to 400 yards after going 870 yards. Freshened 92 days. Watch how its recent works look.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 18; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	PRM	3.95455f D	Alw b	5th/6 -8½L	81	48-1	LB	Failed to threaten
6/20	PRM	3.95455f D	Alw b	4th/6 -5½L	84	6.0-1	LB	Inside;3wd;no threat
5/24	RP	3.95455f D	Clm 10k n3l	3rd/4 -½L	78	3.9-1	L	3wide; outdueled

6AtomicLSRan 6thJ. Lopez · J. Hernandez-MartinezLopez · Hernandez-MartinezC71 6020-1Fair 20-14%—71 60CLS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 71 60
LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey J E Lopez 36% career · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez
Also today · Trainer R2: Green Lucky Cowboy 12-1, this race: Shesa Kats Meow 2-1, R8: Bureaucratic 15-1
Last out was 3rd, a neck behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EUR. Worked 1F in :11.60 on Jun 4, 2nd of 11 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 24d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1.59091f D MSW 3rd/8 by nk — 11-1 B Game third
7/19 PRM 1.36364f D MCL 12k 4th/6 by nk 71 4.7-1 LB Flattened late
6/22 PRM 1½f D MCL 15k 5th/7 -1L 60 24-1 LB Drift in;bumped foe

7Fabulous and FancyRan 4thJ. Hernandez · E. Escamilla-GonzalezHernandez · Escamilla-GonzalezB74 78 81▼-3≡@trip 815-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -374 78 81 ≡@trip 81B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 78 81

Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Redd Dirt Runner 7-2, R5: Shesa Sweetie Kat 7-2, R5: Mrblue Wagon 15-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 81 to 78 to 74. Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Altered path; no rally), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/8 -1¾L	74	5.3-1	b L	Altered path;no rally
9/29	WRD	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	8th/10 -3¾L	78	7.4-1	b L	Hopped st;no threat
7/16	FMT	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/10 -2¼L	81	2.6-1	b L	Late inr=terest

8Redd Dirt Runner▼Ran 3rdE. Esqueda · E. Escamilla-GonzalezEsqueda · Escamilla-GonzalezB71 83 67▲▲+17↕@trip 777-2Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +1771 83 67 ↕@trip 77B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (71 vs 83)

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 11–83 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 83 67

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (71 vs 83)

Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Watashi 10-1, R5: Elsas Hero 5-1, R9: Livewires Apollo 5-1 · Trainer this race: Fabulous And Fancy 5-1, R5: Shesa Sweetie Kat 7-2, R5: Mrblue Wagon 15-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $15,000 claiming race at EUR. 2nd of 19 at 1F on Sep 24, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 38d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1.81818f D	Clm 15k	Won/6 by nk	71	6.3-1	b L	Game winner
7/19	FMT	1.36364f D	sClm15000n3l	5th/6 -1½L	83	19-1	b L	Little impact rail
6/19	FMT	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n3l	10th/10 -6¾L	67	39-1	b L	Reared start

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Innocent Down Perry, won.

1st3Innocent Down PerryWin$13.40Place$6.20Show$3.80Our #1

2nd4Shesa Kats MeowWin—Place$4.80Show$3.60Our #2

3rd8Redd Dirt RunnerWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #4

4th7Fabulous And FancyOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Claiming $12,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

2:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 29%

Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.57

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Innocent Down Perry (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 79 · 84 · 86. Backup is #4 Shesa Kats Meow at 2-1. Use #5 Behold A Dynasty in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Innocent Down Perry won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 INNOCENT DOWN PERRY	1st
#2	#4 SHESA KATS MEOW	2nd
#3	#5 BEHOLD A DYNASTY	7th
#4	#8 REDD DIRT RUNNER	3rd
#5	#7 FABULOUS AND FANCY	4th

Actual finish

1st	#3 Innocent Down Perry	our #1
2nd	#4 Shesa Kats Meow	our #2
3rd	#8 Redd Dirt Runner	our #4
4th	#7 Fabulous and Fancy	our #5
5th	#2 Gravel N Grace	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 SHESA KATS MEOW (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 SHESA KATS MEOW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 23.5%).
#3 INNOCENT DOWN PERRY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.8%, they've got 20.2%.
#5 BEHOLD A DYNASTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 INNOCENT DOWN PERRY — we make it 23.8%, the morning line works out to 20.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Capi Me, #2 Gravel N Grace, #3 Innocent Down Perry.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Capi Me2Gravel N Grace3Innocent Down Perry4Shesa Kats Meow5Behold A Dynasty6Atomic7Fabulous And Fancy8Redd Dirt Runner

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Shesa Kats Meow

Behold A Dynasty

Capi Me

Gravel N Grace

Innocent Down Perry

Atomic

Fabulous And Fancy

Redd Dirt Runner

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