INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 2
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Dixieland (early speed, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 63 · 38. Backup is #4 Miss Brewski at 15-1. Use #2 Nietas in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Switches from turf to dirt. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.
New trainer: Tyrone Gleason had it last time, Sarah E Shaffer now. Best recent figure is 41, well under the 70 par for this level.
Unraced, but worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 16, 2nd fastest of 9 that morning. Debut for a Highly Motivated youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $50,000.
Debut for a trainer who is 21% with first-timers, over 108 starts. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 6).
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Maximus Mischief and Fox Alert breeding. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Unraced; this barn has 722 first-time starters on record and wins 20% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 10.
First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 8 works since Aug 21. Unraced so far; the pedigree is Uncle Mo out of Point System.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 HOLLY BLUE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #3 HOLLY BLUE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 20.9%).
- #5 DIXIELAND — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.2%, they've got 16.7%.
- #7 SOLSIA — our #7 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 18.6%).
Value read
- #5 DIXIELAND — we make it 19.2%, the morning line implies 16.7%. We're 15.2 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #4 MISS BREWSKI (15-1) — our fair 6.2% is above the morning line's 5.2%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.
Likely leader: #5 Dixieland; the shape helps #5 Dixieland; and works against #1 Cucurella, #2 Nietas, #3 Holly Blue.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the lone-speed shape means the top pick can control it — singles play stronger. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#5 Dixieland
Top of the field by a clear 38-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#5 Dixieland OVER #4 Miss Brewski · #2 Nietas · #6 Cheeriness
Key #5 Dixieland on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#5 Dixieland / #4 Miss Brewski · #2 Nietas · #6 Cheeriness / #4 Miss Brewski · #2 Nietas · #6 Cheeriness · #1 Cucurella
#5 Dixieland keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / $1 PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)