INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $40,000 purse

Field

12 runners

Purse

$40,000

Post

4:14 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

IQ top

#9 · 88

PANELPASS · lean #9 INSTILLED ZIP [MAX]see full panel →

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.19

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #9 Instilled Zip (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 70 · 67 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Crickenberger at 6-1. Use #8 Sweet Heat in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1WIN

9Instilled Zip

Jockey Marcelino Pedroza 8-for-50 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Whatdoyouthinkmark 3-1, R4: Call Her Majesty 8-1, R6: Save My Town 5-1, R7: Ziva 50-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Sealed Destiny 5-1, this race: Tiz Wine Time 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board here

Raises its level, $20,000 claiming last time and allowance now. The Aug 14 work, 4F in :49.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 54d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L8-1

IQ88

TierLive

StyleS

Last2nd · 21d

2PLACE

10Crickenberger

Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career ★ 3-for-15 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Cipriano Contreras 36% career ★ 2-for-10 on turf this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Large Risk 10-1 · Trainer R6: Large Risk 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board here

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 11 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly. 4th last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 7.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (3p; bid1/4; falterd late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 11; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ88

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last4th · 28d

3SHOW

8Sweet Heat

Jockey O Bocachica 39% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Kara Lin McGuire 0-for-3 on turf this meet

8/11 board here

Jockey switch: William Jr Antongeorgi last out, O Bocachica today. Off 46 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 11 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ76

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 46d

4EXOTICS

4Once More

Jockey Cesar Orantes 27% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Ed Roggenkamp 1-for-1 on turf this meet

WON LAST

Best recent figure is 64, well under the 74 par for this level. Won last out in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 44 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ70

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last1st · 27d

5EXOTICS

2Innisfree Lass

Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer John Haran 30% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lavender Earl 20-1, R4: Imonlysleeping 6-1, R7: I Made It 5-2 · Trainer R6: Fools Jester 4-1, R6: Einstein's Ghost 6-1

8/16 board here

Purse drops from $150,000 to $40,000 against its last start. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 16 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ67

TierLive

StyleS

Last11th · 26d

5Lilmorecraken

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Ian R Wilkes 27% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

5/10 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ56

TierLive

StyleP

Last6th · 21d

7Fifth Wheel

Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 3-for-30 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Spoke 6-1, R7: Annie Express 10-1 · Trainer R8: Tricked You 3-1

WON LAST

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Winner of an 8-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND last time.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 30d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ55

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last1st · 14d

6Foxy Justice

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career 4-for-30 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: My Bossy Lady 3-1, R4: Echo Paradise 3-1, R6: Fools Jester 4-1, R7: Ce La Vi Charli 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Bossy Lady 3-1, R4: Echo Paradise 3-1, R6: Save My Town 5-1, R7: Ce La Vi Charli 6-1 +1 more

WON LAST7/10 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse allowance race at IND at 3-1.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L8-1

IQ49

TierLongshot

StyleP

Last1st · 20d

3Jack's Summer

Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 3-for-34 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Robert C Sturgeon 18% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Furious Anger 6-1, R2: Miss Brewski 15-1, R6: Senor Valentine 15-1, R7: Lucky Shore 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Lucky Shore 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today. Figures have slipped: 75, 68, 66 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 29 (4F in :47.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L10-1

IQ48

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 13d

1Pink Picture

Jockey Evin A Roman 33% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Rogelio Labra 17% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R3: Spoke 6-1

WON LAST6/10 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at IND. Has moved up each time out, 25 to 61 to 67.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L5-1

IQ41

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last1st · 33d

11Tiz Wine Time

Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony J Granitz 26% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R8: C V Hades 25-1 · Trainer R4: Sealed Destiny 5-1, this race: Instilled Zip 8-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 51 to 64 to 72. Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse $20,000 claiming race at IND.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 47d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L8-1

IQ41

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last1st · 21d

12Molly's Potion

Jockey Samuel E Bermudez 35% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Dawn Fontenot 22% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Angels Sing 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 20 (4F in :49.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ28

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last5th · 11d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 PINK PICTURE (5-1) — our number has it ranked #10.
#10 CRICKENBERGER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 10.6%).
#1 PINK PICTURE — our #10 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 12.3%).
#8 SWEET HEAT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 10.6%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: PASS — market efficient — no edge, pass

No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #11 Tiz Wine Time; pressure from #3 Jack's Summer, #12 Molly's Potion.

Lead

none

Press

11Tiz Wine Time933Jack's Summer8612Molly's Potion841Pink Picture8310Crickenberger818Sweet Heat80

Stalk

5Lilmorecraken896Foxy Justice82

9Instilled Zip832Innisfree Lass774Once More707Fifth Wheel69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tiz Wine Time

Lilmorecraken

Jack's Summer

Molly's Potion

Pink Picture

Foxy Justice

Crickenberger

Sweet Heat

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fifth Wheel

Innisfree Lass

Once More

Instilled Zip

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Place / Show

#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat

Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.

Exacta — BOX

#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat

Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.

Trifecta — BOX

#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#9 Instilled Zip / #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass / #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass / ALL or #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

Bet types offered at this track →

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 2ND LEG OF HORSESHOE HAT TRICK TURF PICK 3

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.