INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $20,000
Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Einstein's Ghost (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 67 · 73 · 84. Backup is #12 Star Saver at 15-1. Use #11 Dauwe in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 79 next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 84 to 73 to 67.
Changes barns, from Aaron M West to Miguel Silva. Figures are climbing: 68, 71, 74 over its last three.
Lilia Gonzalez takes over the training from Esteban Gordillo. Moves up from $12,500 claiming to $20,000 claiming.
Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Won last out in a 7-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND.
Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. The Sep 9 work, 5F in 1:00.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Last out was 7th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at IND.
Figures are climbing: 64, 68, 73 over its last three. Was running in allowance; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Worked 5F in 1:01.00 on May 26, 2nd of 20 at the distance.
Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 6-horse allowance race at CBY. Moves up from allowance to $20,000 claiming.
Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. A 72 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.
Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at FPK. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 FOOLS JESTER (4-1) — our number has it ranked #8.
- #2 FOOLS JESTER — our #8 number, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 16.2%).
- #7 SAVE MY TOWN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 13.5%).
- #5 EINSTEIN'S GHOST — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (12.3% to their 11.6%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #12 STAR SAVER (15-1) — our fair 6.1% is above the morning line's 5.1%; supported by: figures trending up 68→71→74 (project ~72)
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Morning Power; pressure from #3 Start Mo Up, #1 Mighty Army; the shape helps #6 Instant Classic; and works against #1 Mighty Army, #3 Start Mo Up, #4 Morning Power.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#5 Einstein's Ghost (place saver: #12 Star Saver)
#5 Einstein's Ghost rates the best; #12 Star Saver the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#5 Einstein's Ghost · #12 Star Saver
Two standouts with little between them — box #5 Einstein's Ghost and #12 Star Saver both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#5 Einstein's Ghost · #12 Star Saver · #11 Dauwe
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#5 Einstein's Ghost / #12 Star Saver · #11 Dauwe · #7 Save My Town · #8 Large Risk / #12 Star Saver · #11 Dauwe · #7 Save My Town · #8 Large Risk / ALL or #12 Star Saver · #11 Dauwe · #7 Save My Town · #8 Large Risk
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)